Broadband subscribers to pass Dialup in 2005

Acert93

Artist formerly known as Acert93
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It turns out there are a lot of patient saints out there. More than half of the Web users in the U.S. are narrowbanders, according to Bruce Leichtman, principal analyst with The Leichtman Group in Durham, N. H. Liechtman says there are 38 million dial-up users compared to 33 million broadband users in the U.S. However he says broadband should catch up and then surpass dialup sometime this year.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/7231792/

The article is about making narrowband life bearable, but I thought this quote was interesting. It boads well for Sony and MS that by 2006/2007 broadband access should be pretty good in the US (although last mile technologies are still lagging). Obviously when we talk percentages more console owners will not have broadband but it does boad well for the future of online gaming, although the 80% number I heard as a X2 Live! goal seems high (cannot remember where I heard this, so if I am wrong ignore ;) ).
 
Have to admit, I am now one of the few lamers who just now jumped onto the broadband wagon. :D SBC DSL @ $20/month is teh soft kitty! Can't say if I will still be there in a year, though if they expect I will begin paying $30/month. Here's to hoping they realize $20/month is the sweet spot for them...
 
Oh Randy, I feel for you man. I had Cable in 97-99, but had dialup from 2000-mid 2004. Going from broadband BACK to dialup is horrid. You would have been better off sticking with dialup. Knowing the power of the dark site makes the internet PAINFUL.
 
I hear ya, but lets hope it never comes down to that. Let's---just---hope... [gives dramatic glare] :)

That reminds me of a point I forgot to make earlier- dial-up isn't really all that slow, actually...if you use it for what it was largely intended for when it first became introduced to computer-dom. It's very simple- turn off the pictures, the java, the plugins, all that fancy graphics goodness crap. Do that, and the text will fly into your computer like the bozaks. Who would want to do that? Well, if the majority of websites you go to, are because you intend to read up on something, it's great! You can skip all those friggen ads and largely superfluous pictures and pipeline that text right to your brain tissue. Websites load up in a snap, and it's a whole helluva lot less a load on your computer, altogether (and when you have 10-15 or so tabs open in your web browser, storing all that graphics crap can tie up your resources). Then when you do come across a place holder that you would like to see its picture, just turn your pictures back on, reload the page, and then turn the pictures option back off when you are done. Now none of this will help you if you enjoy downloading, ahem, videos, music, filesharing, and the like all day. Broadband is definitely the right tool for the job there.

Here's one other observation since I got DSL- tranferring large amounts of data is definitely quicker, but the latency is not necessarily better. As far as my setup, latency may actually be slightly worse than when I was on dialup. That is, when I hit a weblink, it seems to take a moment before it actually starts getting that new page. There's a delay that belies that fast DSL transfer characteristic. It's noticeable to me because I hazard to say it may actually have been lower in my dialup to get a new webpage started. My expectation going into DSL is that just everything would be quicker. I'm not complaining, really. Its just something I thought peculiar, once I played around with it a bit.
 
Acert93 said:
It turns out there are a lot of patient saints out there. More than half of the Web users in the U.S. are narrowbanders, according to Bruce Leichtman, principal analyst with The Leichtman Group in Durham, N. H. Liechtman says there are 38 million dial-up users compared to 33 million broadband users in the U.S. However he says broadband should catch up and then surpass dialup sometime this year.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/7231792/

The article is about making narrowband life bearable, but I thought this quote was interesting. It boads well for Sony and MS that by 2006/2007 broadband access should be pretty good in the US (although last mile technologies are still lagging). Obviously when we talk percentages more console owners will not have broadband but it does boad well for the future of online gaming, although the 80% number I heard as a X2 Live! goal seems high (cannot remember where I heard this, so if I am wrong ignore ;) ).
I will not be surprised if Broadband subscribers outnumber DialUp subscribers this year ... you are right about this trend boding well for the MS and Sony .. for MS especially, it looks like they are planning to do so much with Live on Xbox 360, that IMO broadband will probably almost be a necessity for getting the most out of Live on Xbox 360 ..
 
Phone companies are charging hard now with fiber to the home. They want to offer HD broadcasting bundled with phone and internet.
 
There was an interesting discussion about this on daytime Fox News Channel only a few weeks ago. It was like a head to head between some cable TV-based advocates vs. telephone-based advocates on who has the leg-up on stock outlook in association with providing the new age of digital services and media into the homes of the masses. Naturally, there was no clear outcome of the discussion, but they certainly were able to give their rosy spiel. Personally, I don't know who really would prevail, but my baseless hunch goes out to the phone businesses.

Hey, I just learned that you can link DSL services to your PC via USB port. Now wouldn't that be cool if Sony made it so that I could just run a USB cable to my PS2 to get PS2 online services, instead of having to go and buy a whole other networking card just to have an ethernet interface? Yah, I know that would be just too easy, but it would be kewl. :)
 
Well, in the UK, I'm going over to 2 megabit broadband Wednesday (if my router turns up), for less than I'm paying dialup. It's certainly looking far better value if you can afford the setup costs. I have to ask at what point is broadband going to be any use to Sony and MS though? When every console owning home has it? And at the moment it looks like next-gen won't have storage space. Or I supposed we'll use flahs mem and content will me mods etc.

What coverage does broadband have in the US? I know in the UK we're up to 93% availability and take up is higher than much of the continent. BUT...it's still not an essential. The main reason I'm upgrading is a shared connection in the home and free up the phone. I can still get by on 56k, even viewing pictures or downloading MP3s. I guess this is why lots of people aren't upgrading. When we get 4 and 8 megabit, if I'm on still I can't see any reason to upgrade. Was is Kutaragi saying he was looking for a world with 20 mbit connections? Why would I want to upgrade?

So I'm kinda saying, will 512kb broadband be a long term bottleneck? It's fast enough to make websurfing comfortable and provided streamed media. The only advantage to faster speeds is better quality media, which really isn't an issue when viewing movie trailers etc. The idea of downloadable games or movies on demand over broadband, the centre of a convergence market, does not, it seems to me, offer enough to get people to upgrade. Not until those speeds are available for no upgrade cost and at the same subscription rates as slower speed. Maybe if MS and Sony and phone companies want that infrastructure, they'll have to pay for us to take it up instead of hope we'll see enough advantage to pay ourselves?
 
in Belgium, 99% coverage.
current population in Belgium: +-10.000.000 people

adsl penetration: +-1.100.000 connections (adsl,sdsl and vdsl since a few months)
Cable :+-600.000 connection

that's almost 1 on 5 people has broadband internet .
that's aprox 1 out of 2 homes has a broadband internet connection

average internet speed is 3-4 megabit down and 192kbit up.
 
randycat99 said:
Hey, I just learned that you can link DSL services to your PC via USB port. Now wouldn't that be cool if Sony made it so that I could just run a USB cable to my PS2 to get PS2 online services, instead of having to go and buy a whole other networking card just to have an ethernet interface? Yah, I know that would be just too easy, but it would be kewl. :)

Ethernet UTP exists for a reason: USB maximum single run cable length spec is just 16 feet (and for max compatibility they recommend no more than 9 ft -- ever wonder why xbox game contoller cords are ~9 feet in length?).

It's not really possible to make a practical network with a cable length that limited. :)

It would work if your PS2 was right next to your PC though... but how many people have a PC in their living rooms? (I do but I'm a geek. ;) )
 
randycat99 said:
There was an interesting discussion about this on daytime Fox News Channel only a few weeks ago. It was like a head to head between some cable TV-based advocates vs. telephone-based advocates on who has the leg-up on stock outlook in association with providing the new age of digital services and media into the homes of the masses. Naturally, there was no clear outcome of the discussion, but they certainly were able to give their rosy spiel. Personally, I don't know who really would prevail, but my baseless hunch goes out to the phone businesses.

I think Broadband over Powerlines will make a push. Cable is great, but in big cities you have issues with ISPs putting to many people on one branch. DSL loses integrity over distance. Both have issues with last mile customers (DSL is better than Cable in this regards).

Last year I lived in the middle of a 3k person town (the biggest in the county) and they still did not have DSL or Cable Internet. This did not include the 10k people living outside city limits who would never get DSL or Cable. The US is very large and sprawled out compared to a lot of countries. For peak penetration we will have to hope that last mile technologies with good latency (like Broadband of Powerlines and real WiFi type stuff, not the radio dish junk) take hold. Still the picture looks rosier than I expected. ~40M broadband customers by fall 2005 means there are a lot of hardcore gamers with broadband these days--so the market is there. As long as Sony/MS also make sure there are plenty of games for people off the broadband grid--and they remember not all gamers like online games--I do not think a fair amount of emphasis on online gaming will be too bad.
 
I think Sony should make PS3 broadband AND narrowband enabled. You see MOST people in the world do not have access to broadband, so they will be left out. But if they can play via dial-up, then Sony has a bigger demograph. I think that is why PS2 online gamers out number Xbox.
Obviously, they will be loosing on a lot like chatting and what not. But at least they will be getting something, and something is better than nothing.
PS2 adaptor has two plugs: broadband and dial-up. Use what you want. Simple.

…pretty please?
 
aaaaa00 said:
randycat99 said:
Hey, I just learned that you can link DSL services to your PC via USB port. Now wouldn't that be cool if Sony made it so that I could just run a USB cable to my PS2 to get PS2 online services, instead of having to go and buy a whole other networking card just to have an ethernet interface? Yah, I know that would be just too easy, but it would be kewl. :)

Ethernet UTP exists for a reason: USB maximum single run cable length spec is just 16 feet (and for max compatibility they recommend no more than 9 ft -- ever wonder why xbox game contoller cords are ~9 feet in length?).

It's not really possible to make a practical network with a cable length that limited. :)

It would work if your PS2 was right next to your PC though... but how many people have a PC in their living rooms? (I do but I'm a geek. ;) )

I don't know if that would be a hard obstacle, afterall. Most people will have a phone outlet in the living room. Hence, it is not so impossible to expect that the/a DSL hub would be located there, as well. That may well be within USB reach to your PS2... Yeah, it looks messy, already, but hey, I was just noting that this could have worked with the USB interfaces I already have vs. with ethernet that requires a PS2 network interface that I don't have. I knew it would never happen, anyway (DSL USB to PS2 USB compatibility).
 
randycat99 said:
Most people will have a phone outlet in the living room. Hence, it is not so impossible to expect that the/a DSL hub would be located there, as well. That may well be within USB reach to your PS2... Yeah, it looks messy, already, but hey, I was just noting that this could have worked with the USB interfaces I already have vs. with ethernet that requires a PS2 network interface that I don't have. I knew it would never happen, anyway (DSL USB to PS2 USB compatibility).

Oh I misread. I thought you were talking about hooking your PC to your PS2 with USB. :)

I wouldn't be suprised if you could hook a USB DSL modem to a PS2, problem is you'd need drivers for the modem, and that would be pretty hard to come by unless it was a Sony DSL modem with drivers written by Sony. (And even then you'd probably have to get each game to support it.)
 
z said:
I think Sony should make PS3 broadband AND narrowband enabled. You see MOST people in the world do not have access to broadband, so they will be left out. But if they can play via dial-up, then Sony has a bigger demograph. I think that is why PS2 online gamers out number Xbox.
Obviously, they will be loosing on a lot like chatting and what not. But at least they will be getting something, and something is better than nothing.
PS2 adaptor has two plugs: broadband and dial-up. Use what you want. Simple.

…pretty please?

I think that is horrible idea, narrowband has great potential to ruin gaming experience for everyone, Broadband is so cheap nowadays that there really aren't any valid reasons to stay on dial-up. PS2 online gamers outnumber Live users because there Are 80 million PS2 users compared to 20 Million Xbox owners.
 
Dr Evil said:
I think that is horrible idea, narrowband has great potential to ruin gaming experience for everyone, Broadband is so cheap nowadays that there really aren't any valid reasons to stay on dial-up.
Except availability and setup costs, depending where in the world you live.
 
Why is it a horrid idea? Broadband and norrowband do not play against each other. They play separately. And there is a very good reason why most people in the world do not have broadband other than price; it is simply unavailable.
If one is lucky enough to have fast broadband than good for him, if not, why not just play with dial-up? You would be surprised at how many PS2 dial-up users out there.

The thing is those unfortunate still have a way. For those fortunate, why do they give a damn?
 
z said:
Why is it a horrid idea? Broadband and norrowband do not play against each other. They play separately.

I wasn't aware of this fact, offcourse if this is the case it doesn't hurt anyone to include dial-up.
 
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