Baseless Next Generation Rumors with no Technical Merits [pre E3 2019] *spawn*

Discussion in 'Console Industry' started by Arkham night 2, Feb 16, 2019.

Tags:
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. Shortbread

    Shortbread Island Hopper
    Veteran

    Joined:
    Jul 1, 2013
    Messages:
    3,840
    Likes Received:
    1,978
    A self-described triple-A developer is busy using Era console-warrior stooges on relaying his SDK observations through an anonymous message dump like Pastebin. Yup, sounds legit to me...
     
  2. iroboto

    iroboto Daft Funk
    Legend Regular Subscriber

    Joined:
    Mar 6, 2014
    Messages:
    8,009
    Likes Received:
    6,288
    Probability Theory and Information Theory.
    ''Probability theory is a mathematical framework for representing uncertain statements. ... While probability theory allows us to make uncertain statements and reason in the presence of uncertainty, information allows us to quantify the amount of uncertainty in a probability distribution.'

    If we have some information we can make assumptions that are more probable. In this case, Sony's confirmation on SSD, Navi, Zen, Ray tracing, these items have enough information for us to guess the certainty of certain 'leaks' or guesses.

    However, when you have no information to check the certainty, the options are very wide, making each option both fake and real, with no real thing to claim it being true. Except when you think about it, of all the creativity there can be about the specs, there is only 1 actual correct spec to an infinite number of configurations. So we can make a probable claim that 99.99999% of guesses are probably wrong (for now until some real information is provided). To be clear, all the guesses on what's happening with Xbox is based entirely off leaks and from 1 source.

    The most we could do is cluster some data points together and hope the Xbox lands somewhere in there, but we're talking about a clustering of guesses, we're still not sure what the drivers of what is possible actually are since MS has not made clear their intentions for their next generation console(s).

    Ie if we did the exact same exercise back in 2012, no one would have guessed kinect and TV, until after they announced it.
     
    #822 iroboto, May 22, 2019
    Last edited: May 22, 2019
  3. TheAlSpark

    TheAlSpark Moderator
    Moderator Legend

    Joined:
    Feb 29, 2004
    Messages:
    20,796
    Likes Received:
    5,889
    Location:
    ಠ_ಠ
  4. Nisaaru

    Regular

    Joined:
    Jan 19, 2013
    Messages:
    888
    Likes Received:
    206
    Do you really think these game companies are full of aged professionals who are old enough to separate themselves from their fanboy phase to not leak something if it satisfies their over excited ego?

    I still recall how stupid I was in my early 20s:)
     
  5. Nisaaru

    Regular

    Joined:
    Jan 19, 2013
    Messages:
    888
    Likes Received:
    206
    Well, I can at least still recall how we were sort of told by a certain developer here to curb our enthusiasm about MS's product. There were some negative vibrations available before the release if people listened careful.
     
  6. London-boy

    London-boy Shifty's daddy
    Legend Subscriber

    Joined:
    Apr 13, 2002
    Messages:
    21,519
    Likes Received:
    5,167
    Still the best videogame movie ever.
     
    TheAlSpark likes this.
  7. iroboto

    iroboto Daft Funk
    Legend Regular Subscriber

    Joined:
    Mar 6, 2014
    Messages:
    8,009
    Likes Received:
    6,288
    Even if we assume that to be true, there's a difference between an opinion of a spec and the actual spec (alpha dev kit) and the actual spec at release (final hardware).

    Xbox One is a bit of an anomaly because right before release they clocked it higher. People (on other forums) tend to think this is 'normal procedure' but it's far from. This came because they overdid the cooling on the xbox one unit, and that's because they were rushed in developing the console, thus the external power brick. If everything is working well, we should be seeing any last minute upclocks or anything of that sort, the cooling, the storage, the console unit, everything should be working together in spec such that it's unlikely we can see those types of last minute changes.

    There's a lot that can change from then and now. All I know is that, it's still in the realm of many configurations.

    But since we're on baseless rumours, did someone on B3D say to not expect much? weird, I don't recall this.
     
  8. Nisaaru

    Regular

    Joined:
    Jan 19, 2013
    Messages:
    888
    Likes Received:
    206
    Yes, on B3D the few months before the reveal. There should be old-timers who might guess who I refer to. Obviously no technical details were leaked but just the general "vibe" wasn't positive from the inside of MS.
     
  9. BRiT

    BRiT (╯°□°)╯
    Moderator Legend Alpha

    Joined:
    Feb 7, 2002
    Messages:
    12,637
    Likes Received:
    8,945
    Location:
    Cleveland
    There were rumors a year before any reveals about the relative power gap between the two as well as indications the best one would be middling at best. I'm not sure if that rumor was ever posted on the forums.
     
  10. iroboto

    iroboto Daft Funk
    Legend Regular Subscriber

    Joined:
    Mar 6, 2014
    Messages:
    8,009
    Likes Received:
    6,288
    even if well intentioned, certainty stock in that being true is low.

    I suspect that they have more than 1 configuration in the go and green light one of them.
    The move for a 2 consoles launch is pretty crazy when viewed from that lens, quite a few more dependencies in playing locking out certain combinations of consoles.
     
  11. Silent_Buddha

    Legend

    Joined:
    Mar 13, 2007
    Messages:
    16,241
    Likes Received:
    5,191
    OTOH it may make it easier. Since you are going to make a range of configurations anyway targeting combinations of price/performance/features, this would allow you to make more use of your R&D. The risk then comes in during manufacturing and sales.

    In other words, since you are making a range of configurations, there's virtually no risk during the R&D stage for a 2 console launch. Once manufacturing and sales happens, if one doesn't sell and has little to no audience, then the risk didn't pay off.

    Of course that can be minimized significantly if you use the same die for both consoles with similar components. Depending on yields.
    • If yields are low, use salvage chips for the lower configuration.
      • This would be better than just throwing them away.
    • If yields are good, cherry select the best performing chips for the higher configuration.
      • This would allow you to take advantage of good yields. Get a premium margin for the good chips.
    Depending on the how the competition's console turns out. If your competition matches your target performance for your chip and your price one console similarly to your competition. In the first case of low yields, you can offer the salvage chips in a lower performance price bracket. In the second case of good yields, you can use cherry selected chips for a higher tier price bracket with a higher performing console.

    Also, in the second case where you can cherry pick a higher performance grade and price. Even if you can't get "that" many more premium chips, the higher pricing tier should limit the market for it anyway allowing you to still get a high margin for basically the same production cost.

    Basically, do what the GPU makers and CPU makers have been doing for decades. So imagine consoles with a performance difference roughly similar to a GTX 1070 versus 1080, for example. The question then becomes...would that offer compelling value propositions to console buyers seeking different levels of price/performance? 30 USD difference? 40? 50? 100?

    Now, realistically, I don't think MS are going with that strategy, but it's possible they could. I think they are likely making consoles that are significantly more different to target significantly different market segments.

    Regards,
    SB
     
    #831 Silent_Buddha, May 22, 2019
    Last edited: May 22, 2019
  12. iroboto

    iroboto Daft Funk
    Legend Regular Subscriber

    Joined:
    Mar 6, 2014
    Messages:
    8,009
    Likes Received:
    6,288
    I think you mean no additional marginal costs on the R&D.

    There is still substantial risk, as in you’ve locked your ecosystem to a base model that is terribly inferior to the premium model but developers need to target their titles accordingly and their games are better designed for the premium system and not the base system.

    I still don’t know how they intend to market this 2 console launch strategy. In GPU land there are sort of targets, like 4K or a specific frame rate. Ie: 1060 is 1080p, 1070 is 4K, 1080 is 4K and 60fps or something to that effect. Not sure how it’s being marketed now with RTX but there were performance settings we could understand.

    The 2 console launch, if it’s not 1080p and 4K again like it is now, I’m not really sure what to expect.
     
  13. BRiT

    BRiT (╯°□°)╯
    Moderator Legend Alpha

    Joined:
    Feb 7, 2002
    Messages:
    12,637
    Likes Received:
    8,945
    Location:
    Cleveland
    Maybe 2 different models, form factors, and names?
    • XSurface
    • XBox
     
    AzBat likes this.
  14. TheAlSpark

    TheAlSpark Moderator
    Moderator Legend

    Joined:
    Feb 29, 2004
    Messages:
    20,796
    Likes Received:
    5,889
    Location:
    ಠ_ಠ
    Mr. Binned: you expect me to talk?
    Dr. XO: No, Mr. Binned. I expect you to die. *cue laser cutting*


    Get it????
     
    iroboto likes this.
  15. BRiT

    BRiT (╯°□°)╯
    Moderator Legend Alpha

    Joined:
    Feb 7, 2002
    Messages:
    12,637
    Likes Received:
    8,945
    Location:
    Cleveland
    Overheard at the following conference?

    [​IMG]
     
    TheAlSpark likes this.
  16. iroboto

    iroboto Daft Funk
    Legend Regular Subscriber

    Joined:
    Mar 6, 2014
    Messages:
    8,009
    Likes Received:
    6,288
    A tablet/mobile device and a console?
    Hmm.

    Not exactly the same as the rumours of a low cost console and a premium one. But still reasonable if you segment that way. Yea this type of segmentation would work.
     
  17. TheAlSpark

    TheAlSpark Moderator
    Moderator Legend

    Joined:
    Feb 29, 2004
    Messages:
    20,796
    Likes Received:
    5,889
    Location:
    ಠ_ಠ
    Is the world ready for another Microsoft mobile device. :|

    Will it have 5G :V
     
  18. ultragpu

    Legend Veteran

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2004
    Messages:
    5,474
    Likes Received:
    1,669
    Location:
    Australia
    Question, would it be a total waste to equip 24 Gigs of GDDR6 for a 9-10 TF console? Surely the bandwidth available would be overkill for the weakish gpu unless you have something 12 TF+ does it not?
     
  19. milk

    Veteran Regular

    Joined:
    Jun 6, 2012
    Messages:
    3,019
    Likes Received:
    2,590
    They do run stress tests, alright. But those are not representative of final performance, because a lot of optimisation and reengineering happens between first dipping your toes into a machine and releasing your first game on it.
    Last of Us remaster, for example, was still running at 30fps until a couple months before it actually went gold.
    No actual developer would say "we ported our code and it runs at 4k60 with dips" because that's not how a dev thinks. Thats how a consumer sees it from digital foundry. A dev does their test to find new bottlenecks and potential strenghths to lean on.
    He said he made a similar test to spiderman's. Ok, was it with an actual game's data? Was it a naive port of the game, or did they refactor how the data was packed? Did they remove duplicates, changed layout, block sizes, experiment with different compression methods? Because that's the kind of thing an actual dev would be doing and those are the info he would be interested about and exited to convey in a hypothetical leak. Yet, no information about that on this leak, but a handwavy "30% performance increase until highest res restures are enabled" which betrays a completely consumer-like perspective on that stuff.
     
    TheAlSpark, BRiT, JPT and 1 other person like this.
  20. Jay

    Jay
    Veteran Regular

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2013
    Messages:
    1,978
    Likes Received:
    1,117
    Your talking about the long term process.
    There's many situations where you would just recompile and benchmark it to see how it performs, before starting on the actual work.

    Can think of many times devs have said that in articles, but not something I'd be able to find now.

    This does not mean I give any credence to this so called leak, opinion, whatever it is.
    Just saying compiling and benchmarking isn't unusual or crazy in and of itself.
     
    Nisaaru likes this.
Loading...
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.

Share This Page

  • About Us

    Beyond3D has been around for over a decade and prides itself on being the best place on the web for in-depth, technically-driven discussion and analysis of 3D graphics hardware. If you love pixels and transistors, you've come to the right place!

    Beyond3D is proudly published by GPU Tools Ltd.
Loading...