Readykilowatt
Regular
I believe that this will happen due to the high "barrier to entry" because of the high price of the PS3. Just like the consoles themselves, franchises have a hardcore and a casual audience. As you all know the hardcore will buy a game or a console regardless of its price (as long as they can afford it) but the casual gamer is more fickle and price sensitive when it comes to these things. Let me go back a little. Look at the PS2's launch. Its launch was massive where the console sold many units in a short period of time. The reason for this is because the barrier to entry for the PS2 was the same as the successful PSone, $299. And since the PS2 had a built in DVD player in addition to its sophisticated graphics technology (Emotion Engine, etc) it was considered a steal for the casual Psone crowd who wanted the next-gen Playstation. As a result both the hardcore and the casual Psone fanbase bought the PS2 in droves and that is one of the reasons why it was a huge success at launch.
Fast forward to the PS3 where the situation in quite different. The PS3 has a built in Blu-Ray player and sophisticated graphics technology (similar situation to its predecessor) but now the barrier to entry is too high. Not only is the console itself expensive but in order to experience the benefits of Blu-Ray, you need to shell out extra money (sometimes thousands of dollars) to buy a HDTV. So as a result, only the hardcore PS2 fanbase who wants the successor to the PS2 will take the plunge. The casual ps2 owner will likely not buy a PS3 even if he/she could afford it by using the excuse that it's too expensive and will wait for a price drop. This is why the sales of the PS3 at launch are far less than the PS2: only the hardcore are buying it and like with everything the hardcore is always in the minority.
A similar fate awaits the major PS3 franchises as well. Since the cost of the hardware is too high it will chase away the casual fanbase of these franchises. As a result you will see sales of upcoming big PS3 games (DMC4, MGS4, Tekken 6, FFXIII, etc.) sell significantly less than what their predecessors sold. For example, if DMC3 sold 2 million copies, DMC4 will sell roughly 900,000 copies, if Tekken 5 sold 1 million copies, Tekken 6 will sell 500,000 copies, etc. The reason for this as stated before is that the casual gamer will not only wait for a price drop on the game, they will wait for a price drop on the PS3 (which wont happen soon) itself. So in a nutshell, all the major PS3 franchises will only sell to the hardcore fanbase and this is why each and every major PS3 game will under-perform.
People always say, "wait for MGS4" to "save" the PS3
lol but it wont happen. What you will see is the PS3 struggle to sell for most of 2007/2008. When a big franchise hits you will see a small short lived sales spike and then the PS3 will quickly fall back down to underwhelming sales. This is what happens when you make the barrier to entry too high. I believe that some major third party developers agree with my prediction... Virtua Fighter 5 going multiplatform is one example. Also, no one can convince me that Dragon Quest 9 was never considered to be a PS3 game, especially since its predecessor sold millions of copies on the PS2.
It will be interesting to see how the big third party publishers backing the PS3 will react to underperforming sales. What should not surprise anyone is many "Dragon Quest 9" events happening in the future. The hardcore fanbase is important, but they and they alone cannot carry a console and its games.
Fast forward to the PS3 where the situation in quite different. The PS3 has a built in Blu-Ray player and sophisticated graphics technology (similar situation to its predecessor) but now the barrier to entry is too high. Not only is the console itself expensive but in order to experience the benefits of Blu-Ray, you need to shell out extra money (sometimes thousands of dollars) to buy a HDTV. So as a result, only the hardcore PS2 fanbase who wants the successor to the PS2 will take the plunge. The casual ps2 owner will likely not buy a PS3 even if he/she could afford it by using the excuse that it's too expensive and will wait for a price drop. This is why the sales of the PS3 at launch are far less than the PS2: only the hardcore are buying it and like with everything the hardcore is always in the minority.
A similar fate awaits the major PS3 franchises as well. Since the cost of the hardware is too high it will chase away the casual fanbase of these franchises. As a result you will see sales of upcoming big PS3 games (DMC4, MGS4, Tekken 6, FFXIII, etc.) sell significantly less than what their predecessors sold. For example, if DMC3 sold 2 million copies, DMC4 will sell roughly 900,000 copies, if Tekken 5 sold 1 million copies, Tekken 6 will sell 500,000 copies, etc. The reason for this as stated before is that the casual gamer will not only wait for a price drop on the game, they will wait for a price drop on the PS3 (which wont happen soon) itself. So in a nutshell, all the major PS3 franchises will only sell to the hardcore fanbase and this is why each and every major PS3 game will under-perform.
People always say, "wait for MGS4" to "save" the PS3
lol but it wont happen. What you will see is the PS3 struggle to sell for most of 2007/2008. When a big franchise hits you will see a small short lived sales spike and then the PS3 will quickly fall back down to underwhelming sales. This is what happens when you make the barrier to entry too high. I believe that some major third party developers agree with my prediction... Virtua Fighter 5 going multiplatform is one example. Also, no one can convince me that Dragon Quest 9 was never considered to be a PS3 game, especially since its predecessor sold millions of copies on the PS2.It will be interesting to see how the big third party publishers backing the PS3 will react to underperforming sales. What should not surprise anyone is many "Dragon Quest 9" events happening in the future. The hardcore fanbase is important, but they and they alone cannot carry a console and its games.
