All purpose sales and sales rumors/anecdotes thread next gen+

[Wynix]

322k PS4's sold in 2 days.
Famitsu PS4 numbers from here.

Famitsu home console openings

1998.11.27 [Sega Dreamcast] (¥29.800) - 101.490 (3 days)
2000.03.04 [Sony PlayStation 2] (¥39.800) - 630.552 (2 days)
2001.09.14 [Nintendo GameCube] (¥25.000) - 133.719 (3 days)
2002.02.22 [Microsoft XBox] (¥34.800) - 123.929 (3 days)
2005.12.10 [Microsoft XBox 360] (¥29.000 / ¥39.795) - 62.135 (2 days)
2006.11.11 [Sony PlayStation 3] (¥49.980 / ¥59.980) - 88.443 (2 days)
2006.12.02 [Nintendo Wii] (¥25.000) - 371.936 (2 days)
2012.12.08 [Nintendo Wii U] (¥26.250 / ¥31.500) - 308.570 (2 days)

It is a solid start, the trouble now is the barren line up of games, especially japanese focused titles.
E3 and TGS have to be incredible this year.

 

[Rangers]

322k PS4's sold in 2 days.
Famitsu PS4 numbers from here.

It is a solid start, the trouble now is the barren line up of games, especially japanese focused titles.
E3 and TGS have to be incredible this year.

Most of those (outside the Xbox's which shouldn't even be in there except to make others look better) would have been supply constrained to some degree or other though...particularly for example PS3.

It's a solid start I suppose, but not gangbusters. As popular as PS4 was elsewhere I guess I thought maybe it could pull a PS2 in Japan.

Should put PS4 close to 6 million WW. Although supply in the USA seems to have REALLY dried up lately that I can tell. I think nowinstok has been completely bare for 1-2 weeks and I have not noticed Amazon getting any shipments.

Well it's #19 on the best sellers for 2014. Making it the top selling next gen title this year

I was referring to the new Titanfall XBO hardware SKU.

 

[Phil]

Oh so you made them,
what I meant is, is it really necessary to see the daily fluctuation in eg the monthly graphs. just have a single data point each day showing the average of the previous 30 days this way you can much easily see if more/less ppl are playing over time

It's a question of granularity i guess. Technically, the yearly graph (showing the past 12months) shows the daily averages so the fluctuations that are seen represent the highs of the weekends. The monthly graphs show the daily fluctuation because it shows 2 hour averages. I chose this to have a higher resolution on the data and because i felt the trend is more visible on the yearly graph (which covers a wider area). I'll have to think of a way to make the one including all the platforms better readable, but for now, at least the graph portaying only Xb One and PS4 covers that for now.

 

[Phil]

these aren't "typical" graphs, these are RRD's. RRDs have very fixed data inputs and loss of resolution. It is possible to do avg or 95th percentile avg but as the data loses resolution those values become increasingly inaccurate.

The resolution is what you define it to be when you create the RRD. The resolution doesnt become inaccurate, it just really depends what resolution archive you save. A RRD is nothing more than a circular loop of multiple data sets with varying resolution. The resolution i have chosen were labled some time when i started the graph...

5min averages for daily graph.
30min average for weekly graph.
2 hour averages for monthly graph
24 hour averages for yearly graph.

This data is stored in 4 seperate archives and are not mixed. For the yearly graph, a history of 10 years is saved (not that i think this graph or game will live as long to see that).... Besides the averaging into the respecive 4 archives, the data isnt manipulated in any way.

 

[itsmydamnation]

The resolution is what you define it to be when you create the RRD. The resolution doesnt become inaccurate, it just really depends what resolution archive you save. A RRD is nothing more than a circular loop of multiple data sets with varying resolution. The resolution i have chosen were labled some time when i started the graph...

5min averages for daily graph.
30min average for weekly graph.
2 hour averages for monthly graph
24 hour averages for yearly graph.

This data is stored in 4 seperate archives and are not mixed. For the yearly graph, a history of 10 years is saved (not that i think this graph or game will live as long to see that).... Besides the averaging into the respecive 4 archives, the data isnt manipulated in any way.

I meant over the data sets, you take 1 min sample and degrade by averaging into the 5min sample, then 5 min into 30min etc,etc. its that loss of resolution i am talking about. I assume your doing the same.

At work i have an RRD that keeps every (60sec) sample of a link for 2 years. then comparing that to cacti's 2 year avg ( 1 day sample) the average readings are ~20% different. The keep every sample RRD is like 75 time the size .


edit: table here describes what i mean:
http://docs.cacti.net/manual:087:8_rrdtool

 

[djskribbles]

Most of those (outside the Xbox's which shouldn't even be in there except to make others look better) would have been supply constrained to some degree or other though...particularly for example PS3.

It's a solid start I suppose, but not gangbusters. As popular as PS4 was elsewhere I guess I thought maybe it could pull a PS2 in Japan.

You have to consider that all of the major console launches usually happen during the holidays. If the PS4 launched in December, it could very well have sold 400k+ and it would have went through the first shipment much quicker.

While the PS4 didn't sellout instantly, it did eventually sellout at most stores within 1-2 days, so it's not like supply was a complete non-issue.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

I meant over the data sets, you take 1 min sample and degrade by averaging into the 5min sample, then 5 min into 30min etc,etc. its that loss of resolution i am talking about.

And then we round the results to the nearest ten... The averages would suit us fine for our human-level comparisons. A daily high and low average should be fine to compare platform use. Given that there appears to be no crossover between use either (eg. XB1's low is higher than PS4's low), I'd even go so far to suggest the high is all that's needed.

Having said that, it's really easy to just take the peak of each day and compare, so I don't have a problem with the current graph.

 

[Phil]

I meant over the data sets, you take 1 min sample and degrade by averaging into the 5min sample, then 5 min into 30min etc,etc. its that loss of resolution i am talking about. I assume your doing the same.

I know what you mean. Technically, the 'degrading' is dependant on the precision of your averaging. If I am not mistaken, RRD stores the datasets as double precision floating-points, so for all intends and purpose should be quite accurate, even if you calculate a yearly average from 24hour samples.


BTW: Yay, my 4000th post on Beyond3d! Not even in the top 30 probably here, but this is quite an achievement for me, given it's the only messageboard I post where I have achieved such a post count! To think that about 12 years ago, I started off as a lurker, reading posts by Arch (among others) and a little humble to join in amongst such knowledgable members. B3d, thanks for having me around. :smile:

 

[Goodtwin]

Looks like early reports are showing a little over 300K for the first couple of days. A very solid start, and will be interesting to see how high the sales get before tapering off. Sony themselves knew the Japanese market would be a slower transition. A lot of the developers in Japan were slow to transition to the PS3, and that will probably hold true again with the PS4.

 

[zed]

i felt the trend is more visible on the yearly graph

But its not
try what I said, each day take the average over the last 30 days, this way you can see the trend changing much easier than the yoyo graph you have now. Trust me

 

[Wynix]

Famitsu Top 5 PS4 Titles:

Pos - Game - Copies Sold

1 - Knack - 322,083(Comes Bundled with every PS4)
2 - Yakuza Ishin - 72,086
3 - Battlefield 4 - 26,878
4 - Killzone Shadowfall - 25,978
5 - Dynasty Warriors 8 Xtreme Legends - 13,576

 

[Rangers]

I'm told by the GAF comments those are very poor software numbers (Knack obviously bundled).

I guess it shows in two FPS being 3 and 4 (really two and three discounting Knack). Nothing much for the Japanese audience.

Dynasty Warriors is Japanese themed though right?

In other news, the Titanfall XBO has now started falling, it's #9. Didn't exactly explode on the charts, probably not the sales kickstarter MS where hoping for, at least on Amazon.

 

[Rangers]

Official Media Create hardware sales for PS4 launch week out. Looks like they estimated a little lower (it's normal for Famitsu and media create estimates to vary a bit, IIRC they only survey ~50% of the market and extrapolate the rest)

BTW since I used a screenshot, wow, Greenshot is awesome for these purposes!

Software

 

[Xbat]

Ps4 should be at 6 million by now or as close as dammit.

 

[DieH@rd]

Sony is still selling everything they put on shelves in all 3 major territories [according to Dualshockers 2nd batch of consoles in japan is almost sold out]. Six million is most probably achieved by now.

We are 2 and a half weeks away from moment when PS4 was at 5.3 mil.

 

[Phil]

Well, all I can say is, here, in insignificant Switzerland, the PS4 is still a rarity. I asked a local electronics store and they don't have the supply to even put it out in the store, as all the units they are receiving are going straight to pre-orders. The best guess is that mid to late March, things might improve.

I'm so glad I got mine at launch.

Xbox One hasn't officially launched here, but are sold as import units in some more specialized stores and in satisfactory stock. They are being sold at CHF ~600 (including 8% VAT) - which is €492 or £405 or 675 USD.

 

[Rangers]

Xbox should be at, I dont know, 3.5 million?

One "good" thing for MS though is essentially Japan is a walled off market since they dont consume western software. every PS4 sold in Japan can be almost considered "wasted" in a global "console war" sense. The same as the almost 10 million PS3's in Japan dont mean anything to EA, Ubisoft, Activision. I suppose they mean something to Capcom, Konami, but it only matters if Japanese devs begin to bestow exclusives on Playstation (and even that wouldn't decide the battle or anything as Japanese developers no longer hold the balance of power). Plus there's low console software sales there.

One interesting thing about those Japan sells is, if you put all the Sony platforms together now with added PS4 firepower, they might start to overwhelm the Nintendo ones. Wii U selling like crap and 3DS on the wane. PSV is growing though hardly a powerhouse, and PS4 should be healthy plus PS3 should stick around. Just yet another thing to concern Nintendo.

PS4+PS3+Vita might overwhelm 3DS+Wii U soon to give the Sony ecosystem the edge.

 

[Phil]

I think we need to be careful about declaring the importance of Japanese developers. They may have lost some of their significant status over the years for many, but they may still be part of the reason why the PlayStation brand remains strong. In other words, precisely the games by Konami, Capcom, Square and others are part of the reason why I end up being a loyal PlayStation consumer generation after generation. If these developers will end up developing software exclusively for Sonys console, Microsoft will not be able to sway some of "us" to their console, no matter how good some western exclusives turn out to be on their console.

 

[Rangers]

I think we need to be careful about declaring the importance of Japanese developers. They may have lost some of their significant status over the years for many, but they may still be part of the reason why the PlayStation brand remains strong. In other words, precisely the games by Konami, Capcom, Square and others are part of the reason why I end up being a loyal PlayStation consumer generation after generation. If these developers will end up developing software exclusively for Sonys console, Microsoft will not be able to sway some of "us" to their console, no matter how good some western exclusives turn out to be on their console.

Couldn't you get all those devs games on 360 last gen? Notable early exception of MGS4.

PS4 at ~6 million means it has at least tied, realistically surpassed Wii U. In 3.5 months...

 

[Goodtwin]

Xbox should be at, I dont know, 3.5 million?

One "good" thing for MS though is essentially Japan is a walled off market since they dont consume western software. every PS4 sold in Japan can be almost considered "wasted" in a global "console war" sense. The same as the almost 10 million PS3's in Japan dont mean anything to EA, Ubisoft, Activision. I suppose they mean something to Capcom, Konami, but it only matters if Japanese devs begin to bestow exclusives on Playstation (and even that wouldn't decide the battle or anything as Japanese developers no longer hold the balance of power). Plus there's low console software sales there.

One interesting thing about those Japan sells is, if you put all the Sony platforms together now with added PS4 firepower, they might start to overwhelm the Nintendo ones. Wii U selling like crap and 3DS on the wane. PSV is growing though hardly a powerhouse, and PS4 should be healthy plus PS3 should stick around. Just yet another thing to concern Nintendo.

PS4+PS3+Vita might overwhelm 3DS+Wii U soon to give the Sony ecosystem the edge.

The transition is not going to happen quickly in Japan. The console market is not what it was years ago in Japan, with many of the more popular games not requiring powerful hardware (such as Monster Hunter). Games like Killzone Shadowfall and Battlefield 4 wont sustain demand for the PS4 in Japan, and the majority of popular software for the foreseeable future will be on the 3DS and PS3. The PS4 and Wii U will likely get included in a lot of these games, but the target platform will likely remain the PS3 and 3DS for quite some time. This actually makes a lot of sense for that market where cutting edge graphics are not that important, it will allow games to be created and put on each platform with ease.