All purpose sales and sales rumors/anecdotes thread next gen+

[Globalisateur]

About the Destiny Bundle, what was the availability of the bundle in regular brick & mortar US stores?

Because if it was less available than the standard PS4 console (like if only half the usual PS4 stores had them), then it would be logical than the always in stock bundles at Amazon would rank higher than it should.

A bit like the often relatively highly ranked Borderlands 2 Vita bundles at Amazon compared to the abysmal NPD Vita numbers.

Not saying the Destiny bundle didn't sell greatly, because it did, but let's not go crazy with some fuzzy logic calculated numbers.

 

[Deleted member 86764]

This is what I mean about Amazon, August NPD was PS4 ~190k XO ~160k. The August hardware rankings surely would lead one to believe PS4 was outselling by multiples to one?

I'd actually prepared an Excel sheet that shows that if you have a chart with the #1 sales at 200,000 units with it decreasing by 0.5% for every lower position (BS numbers). You could have the PS4 at #8 /w 193k sales and if you assume that the Xbox One is at #39, the sales calculate as 165k.

The numbers are pulled from nowhere and I'm absolutely certain that they'd be quite a fair amount of percentage difference between each chart position, but it clearly shows that Amazon's chart positions are perfectly reasonable.


Edit: something like this:

Position - Sales - Percentage Difference
1 200000 0.50%
2 199000 0.50%
3 198005 0.50%
4 197014 0.50%
5 196029 0.50%
6 195049 0.50%
7 194074 0.50%
8 193104 0.50%
9 192138 0.50%
10 191177 0.50%
11 190222 0.50%
12 189270 0.50%
13 188324 0.50%
14 187382 0.50%
15 186446 0.50%
16 185513 0.50%
17 184586 0.50%
18 183663 0.50%
19 182744 0.50%
20 181831 0.50%
21 180922 0.50%
22 180017 0.50%
23 179117 0.50%
24 178221 0.50%
25 177330 0.50%
26 176444 0.50%
27 175561 0.50%
28 174684 0.50%
29 173810 0.50%
30 172941 0.50%
31 172076 0.50%
32 171216 0.50%
33 170360 0.50%
34 169508 0.50%
35 168661 0.50%
36 167817 0.50%
37 166978 0.50%
38 166143 0.50%
39 165313 0.50%
40 164486 0.50%
41 163664 0.50%
42 162845 0.50%
43 162031 0.50%
44 161221 0.50%
45 160415 0.50%
46 159613 0.50%
47 158815 0.50%
48 158020 0.50%
49 157230 0.50%
50 156444 0.50%

 

[DrJay24]

1.5m Destiny Bundles? What?! I'd guess ~400k PS4 with 50% bundle and 50% normal.

 

[Deleted member 86764]

1.5m Destiny Bundles? What?! I'd guess ~400k PS4 with 50% bundle and 50% normal.

I dunno that I'd doubt Rangers' logic just yet. It probably won't be 1.5m, but it could be a fair amount higher than you're suggesting. Didn't the PS4 have some crazy sales in the UK during Destiny week? That logic could just as easily transfer to US sales.

The Destiny bundle HAS been charting high for months now...

 

[DuckThor Evil]

but it clearly shows that Amazon's chart positions are perfectly reasonable.

I think it only shows that you are willing to put time to create nonsensical Excel sheets Sorry to be so blunt, but that was just terrible. You cherry picked every number and think the end result is something reasonable? It's already a huge stretch trying to extrapolate Amazon figures to match NPD-numbers due to various factors, but that chart of yours goes beyond anything reasonable.

 

[DrJay24]

I dunno that I'd doubt Rangers' logic just yet. It probably won't be 1.5m, but it could be a fair amount higher than you're suggesting. Didn't the PS4 have some crazy sales in the UK during Destiny week? That logic could just as easily transfer to US sales.

The Destiny bundle HAS been charting high for months now...

I was speaking for NPD, since we were talking NA Amazon numbers.

 

[Deleted member 86764]

I think it only shows that you are willing to put time to create nonsensical Excel sheets Sorry to be so blunt, but that was just terrible. You cherry picked every number and think the end result is something reasonable? It's already a huge stretch trying to extrapolate Amazon figures to match NPD-numbers due to various factors, but that chart of yours goes beyond anything reasonable.

Ha! That's so kind - thank you!

What I was trying to show, wasn't that it should be considered in any way as being an accurate representation of the numbers, rather the difference between something charting at 8 and another at 39 isn't as great as the chart positions alone show.

 

[Deleted member 86764]

I was speaking for NPD, since we were talking NA Amazon numbers.

I only used the UK numbers as a reference point for the US.

 

[RancidLunchmeat]

What I was trying to show, wasn't that it should be considered in any way as being an accurate representation of the numbers, rather the difference between something charting at 8 and another at 39 isn't as great as the chart positions alone show.

You're describing the difference between ordinal and cardinal numbers, I don't think we need excel spreadsheets created to prove the concepts.

 

[DuckThor Evil]

What I was trying to show, wasn't that it should be considered in any way as being an accurate representation of the numbers, rather the difference between something charting at 8 and another at 39 isn't as great as the chart positions alone show.

I know that is what you tried, but by cherry picking every number, one can show basically anything they want. Had the NPD figures been different, a slight alteration to your equation would again make it seem accurate. It's hard to say what the actual difference was at Amazon between 8th and 39th spot, but your chart certainly doesn't shine any light on that. It would help if we knew One's position when all SKUs are combined (your equation would put it clearly to Nr. 1 ), but since we don't the whole thing is basically a waste of time.

 

[Shortbread]

Amazon best sellers lists is a great tool on gauging buyers trends - that's about it. Amazon only represents 6-7% (US wise) of actual game sales. So from a trend standpoint, there is no doubt Amazon Destiny sales is very reflective of actual sales happening at other retailers. I can only vouch that GameStop and Bestbuy "biggest game sellers" of this month so far, is Destiny.

Anyhow, there is plenty of evidence that PS4 Destiny bundle in general is doing better than any other next generation bundle this year so far. September's NPD no doubt will be in Sony's favor... by a significant margin. We as gamers, should be very happy that the game market is healthy and that XB1 COD:AW bundles will keep that trend going. Hopefully, the XB1 COD:AW bundle will match/surpass the PS4 Destiny bundle sales... this would be MS biggest chance on leading November's NPD, and growing it's user base significantly.

 

[DieH@rd]

Good reviews have pushed PS4 version of Shadow of Mordor to #5 on amazon [in front of it are 3 PSN cards and Smash for 3DS].

 

[DrJay24]

Good reviews have pushed PS4 version of Shadow of Mordor to #5 on amazon [in front of it are 3 PSN cards and Smash for 3DS].

FH2 sitting at #25 is more surprising. I thought the demo was selling it.

 

[steveOrino]

FH2 sitting at #25 is more surprising. I thought the demo was selling it.

Forza was never a system seller and the franchise has been on the decline (sales). The last Horizon game didn't do very well despite a strong marketing push.

 

[djskribbles]

Forza (and a lot of racing games) usually sell better in EUR. It will probably sell moderately well in the US.

 

[DrJay24]

Forza was never a system seller and the franchise has been on the decline (sales). The last Horizon game didn't do very well despite a strong marketing push.

I thought arcade racers sold better, not to mention it is a sequel.

 

[steveOrino]

I thought arcade racers sold better, not to mention it is a sequel.

Forza just doesn't sell that well, and its not because its a bad franchise from a critic standpoint, its always rated very well and has brought a lot of innovation to the genre. These types of games do far better in EU where xbox traditionally doesn't have a strong install base. Arcade racers do fine but with these quasi-sim car museum racers, few come close to GT numbers which hit north of ~10 million units every release with the exception of 6 being quite the outlier. Thats why Forza exists after all.

And as a bit of an off-topic opinion... I think GT5 (clearly unfinished) hurt the GT franchise (We will see how GT7 turns out) and I think the frequency of the Forza releases hurt the Forza franchise.

 

[Rangers]

Ha! That's so kind - thank you!

What I was trying to show, wasn't that it should be considered in any way as being an accurate representation of the numbers, rather the difference between something charting at 8 and another at 39 isn't as great as the chart positions alone show.

Well, the problem is people point at PS4 20-50 spots ahead of X1 as evidence it's selling way better.

Then when it comes up the other direction, like whenever I wonder why real world sales dont always follow (I suppose sometimes they do come closer, like months PS4 has sold 2:1 better), they go "oh, the difference in 30 spots is small!"

But yeah those argument you made have come up before, but the numbers you have are just made up. They could be right or wrong but there's no rational behind them.

Before when we had this argument, I dont remember who, claimed that I think the top 3-4 spots should be huge numbers and THEN everything drops down to be very close.

I cant put numbers on it but intuitively two SKU's in the top ten vs two SKU's in the 40-50 range, seem like it would be at least 2:1 to me if not 3 or 4:1. A SKU in the top ten vs one in the 40's should be 2 or 3 or 4 to one imo.

 

[Rangers]

Xbox One Russia launch and pics

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=131772728&postcount=1

Says 15k+ preorders.

If this is correct than China (rumored 100k+ X1 preorders) would seem to be already a bigger market.

Also another tidbit, some indie game guy said XBL Gold has 17 million subscribers in an interview. So that's interesting.

http://www.rockpapershotgun.com/201...-on-wargaming-in-a-single-breath/#more-235303

So anyway we found that we cooperated very well, we managed to find solutions to these challenges and yes in February we released free-to-play, and it was good, it’s making money, and we’re delighted. Of course the biggest constraint would be the limited amount of Gold subscribers. Of course we have to respect that rule of Microsoft; there’s only something around 17 million Gold subscribers to that, so that’s a limitation but anyway this experiment was good, results were good, and we’re thinking what to do next.

Some people think it's few but it doesn't surprise me, active core gamers is always a small group, which is why PS4 and X1 already dominate sales despite being dwarfed by 360/PS3 numbers. It looks like around 1 in 5 X360 owners (~85 million 360 shipped lifetime). Ignoring Xbox One in the equation.

If those 17 million are paying full price $60 (which I imagine the majority actually do, as most people just take path of least resistance), it's $1.020 billion per year. $250 million per quarter. For something that could be free. Now you know why Sony put multiplayer behind paywall....

 

[djskribbles]

Forza just doesn't sell that well, and its not because its a bad franchise from a critic standpoint, its always rated very well and has brought a lot of innovation to the genre. These types of games do far better in EU where xbox traditionally doesn't have a strong install base. Arcade racers do fine but with these quasi-sim car museum racers, few come close to GT numbers which hit north of ~10 million units every release with the exception of 6 being quite the outlier. Thats why Forza exists after all.

And as a bit of an off-topic opinion... I think GT5 (clearly unfinished) hurt the GT franchise (We will see how GT7 turns out) and I think the frequency of the Forza releases hurt the Forza franchise.

GT6 didn't sell very well (relative to previous iterations) because it released very late in the PS3's life. And it's not miles different from GT5. I'm sure GT6 still sold better than most racers.

Normally the first GT released on a PS platform sells very well, but this is the first time that there will be another (good) racing sim on console in Project Cars. Still, I think GT7 will sell north of 7M lifetime.