A Few Notes from the ATI CC

[Dave Baumann]

I'm only a 3rd of the way through this at the moment (and I have to leave it now), but a few things of note:

ATI are 'quickening the paces of innovation and development' (indicating that the usual 10-12 months it takes for ATI to deliver new products may not be the case now).

They are concentrating on selling 9700/9000 and releasing 9500 in this current quarter.

'Next Generation' 9700 not expected before the holiday season (so no announcment until 2003).

Next geneation is a mix of both .15u and .13u products.

 

[Sabastian]

Next generation products are currently being worked on. There is a ton of info in there. I should listen to it again.

BTW that was a pretty sobering CC. ATIs administration was fairly conservative in their guidance I believe. I guess that is better then disappointing the market though. Nvidias management raised its guidance only a month or so before warning just recently. I guess that ATi executives do not want these sorts of credibility issues plaguing them. Further if there is an upturn in sales ATi stock will benefit greatly for beating expectations.

I would expect that ATi start to gain market share over the next while in the desktop arena. I don't think that ATI will gain more share in the laptop market but they should remain pretty much on par with current share given that they have the integrated IGP solution and the Radeon Mobility 9000 to offer. It seems though that their Mobile 7500 part has come under margin pressure though.(Prolly as a result of nvidia becoming more price competitive with its mobile parts.)

Also ATi needs to get the Radeon 9500 DX9 mainstream part out ASAP. The high end Radeon 9700 pro cards are providing some nice margins I believe but simply are not in high enough volumes yet.(Apparently they have shipped about 1 million Radeon 9700 chips not sure about the margins on these chips but I think that they are healthy.)

ATI is trading very cheaply IMO I believe last year at this time they were trading at an even higher price(8-9 dollars USD.) but had 10 million less in their quarterly earnings. Further this year they have a solid product lineup for Christmas. The only real negative for the Co is the fact that the entire PC market is facing a slow down. So even if market share is gained(Of which I expect will be the case.) it will happen under duress of the slower market conditions resulting in ATi administration not giving overly optimistic guidance. That said, ATi stock looks inviting.

On the other hand Nvidia is in a very unfortunate position in terms of its competitive positioning and to add insult to injury weakened market conditions. This ought to be a bad quarter for them. Losing market share in a shrinking market is a recipie that may result in nvidia lowering its guidance for the next quarter yet.

 

[Derek Smart [3000AD]]

On the other hand Nvidia is in a very unfortunate position in terms of its competitive positioning and to add insult to injury weakened market conditions. This ought to be a bad quarter for them. Losing market share in a shrinking market is a recipie that may result in nvidia lowering its guidance for the next quarter yet.

Indeed.

In fact, about ten minutes ago I saw AMDs figures. $100m shortfall? Oh boy.

 

[Sabastian]

]

On the other hand Nvidia is in a very unfortunate position in terms of its competitive positioning and to add insult to injury weakened market conditions. This ought to be a bad quarter for them. Losing market share in a shrinking market is a recipie that may result in nvidia lowering its guidance for the next quarter yet.

Indeed.

In fact, about ten minutes ago I saw AMDs figures. $100m shortfall? Oh boy.

Yeah this will reflect poorly on nvidias nForce and nForce 2 in particular. What is worse is that nvidia have no licence for Intel chipsets at all.

 

[Randell]

Paper launches and Barton delays can't have helped AMD's position either. A lot of enthusiasts switched back to Intel this year.

I'm still debating whether to pursue my 8kHA+ to its natural end with a 2600XP when available or give up and start again with Intel at least it might eliminare any 8x AGP issues

 

[Dave Baumann]

Intel at least it might eliminare any 8x AGP issues

Yes, it will, becuae Intel have no AGP8X chipsets (unless you want to go Via or SIS, in which case you're back to square one).

 

[Randell]

heh, I thought I read that ATI had tested on Intel chipsets. Oh well
/me shuffles feet....

 

[BRiT]

They [ATI] did. Unfortunately, Intel won't be launching their 8x-AGP chipset until next year. Although, if I recall correctly, it will also have dual-channel DDR memory support.

I wish someone would release new video-card hardware soon. Even if it is for mid-end users. It's been rather slow and boreing lately. Nothing but speculation, aside from ATI-9700 Pro reviews that point out little that we don't already know (fastest and best thing out there now).

--|BRiT|

 

[SteveG]

]
Indeed.

In fact, about ten minutes ago I saw AMDs figures. $100m shortfall? Oh boy.

Yeah this will reflect poorly on nvidias nForce and nForce 2 in particular. What is worse is that nvidia have no licence for Intel chipsets at all.

Not sure I agree. Nvidia currently has a fairly small share of the Athlon chipset market, with VIA far ahead. With Nforce2 proven to be the best performing (and most feature-filled) Athlon chipset, Nvidia is in a great position to gain market share. Thus Nvidia can increase sales even as overall Athlon platform sales are slowing.

And it's not just AMD. Intel warned a few weeks ago, and likely will warn again. The entire PC market is in bad shape.

 

[mat]

Intel won't be launching their 8x-AGP chipset until next year.

xBitLabs said, that intel will launch a AGP8x, Dual DDR 266 Chipset (E7205) this year. But this wont be a mainstream part. (more likely for Worksations/high end PCs)

 

[Username]

I guess that ATi executives do not want these sorts of credibility issues plaguing them.

I guess taking losses for the past 11 quarters isnt much to worry about credibility wise! (Its so much better to keep telling investors you will eventually make money like.. AMD.)

ATI is trading very cheaply IMO

See above.

So even if market share is gained(Of which I expect will be the case.)
Losing market share in a shrinking market is a recipie

Two, two, two hypothetical situations in one! Double your pleasure!

That said, ATi stock looks inviting.

You are right! They are the #1 supplier of graphics chips to the industry.. oh wait they arent. But they consistently turn in net profits! Oh wait.. they dont. Well, thier P/E is pretty damn low! Oh wait.. You cant have a P/E taking a loss, would imply you had positive earnings.. Well, the entire sector is looking up in the immediate future! Oh wait again..

Lol. Its funny, you could have just posted your thoughts about the CC and it would have been a relevant post. Instead it was necessary to toss on the goggles and start in on Nvidia, on issues which were pretty irrelevant. How you somehow came up with a positive assesment of ATI's share price vs. Nvidia's was just the icing on the cake for the silliness.

 

[Sabastian]

First off you make a cheap shot with regards to earnings IIRC. I think ATI has been on the + side of the decimal for a year now. Secondly ATIs administration did not at the beginning of this fiscal year make predictions that they would have equivalent income suggesting total dominance of the graphics market like nvidia did. Further nvidia is still under investigation by the SEC for securities fraud re:Xbox and overstating earnings at one point so that they would meet their numbers. Not to mention the fact that in the spring according to some reputable posters here nvidias CEO claimed having the NV30 taped out already. Then he recanted then .... whatever he is so full of it I can hardly keep track of it all. Then also raising guidance for last quarter and fall not more then a few months before their last where they guided down. There is nothing that even comes close to this sort of disgraceful track record from ATi administration. ATIs executives never claimed that they were going to be rolling in the money like nvidias did over the last year. IMHO they are far more credible then nvidia management. Like it or not analyst are regarding nvidia management as having integrity issues in a big way.

As far as thinking that ATI is looking attractive I am not the only one. "With the industry's leading graphics accelerator, Radeon 9700, we believe ATI is poised to gain desktop market share in the next two quarters," "At 18 times our calendar year 2003 earnings estimate of 26 cents, we believe the stock is undervalued given its competitive positioning" Merrill Lynch

In terms of addressing nvidias position I fail to see how losing market share to ATI in a shrinking market(Well not growing.) are irrelevant in any way. ATi has takin the technological leadership away from nvidia in a pretty solid way for now. This will equate to brand name recognition and OEM deals in the long run in the mainstream sub $200(USD) desktop market nvidias "bread and butter".(RE: Radeon 9000 + 9500 cards.) To buy this stock @ $4.XX before the Christmas season is a no brainer. My “gogglesâ€￾ are just fine thanks.

 

[antlers]

Conference call discussions are fine insofar as they yield product information, but this is starting to sound too much like fool.com

 

[Nagorak]

Not sure I agree. Nvidia currently has a fairly small share of the Athlon chipset market, with VIA far ahead. With Nforce2 proven to be the best performing (and most feature-filled) Athlon chipset, Nvidia is in a great position to gain market share. Thus Nvidia can increase sales even as overall Athlon platform sales are slowing.

And it's not just AMD. Intel warned a few weeks ago, and likely will warn again. The entire PC market is in bad shape.

The entire PC market isn't in "bad shape", it's just come back to reality. The simple truth of the matter is the only people who need fast PCs are: 1) Gamers, 2) Hardware Enthusiasts (for whatever reason, LOL ) and 3) Professionals who actually need the power (3d animators, not word processor/spreadsheet people). Your Average Joe who just needs to check e-mail and browse the 'net doesn't need anything faster than an original Pentium. Actually you can do all that stuff on even a 486+Win95. Anyway that's not an ideal speed, but for what most people use computers for 3GHz machines are totally overkill. They just suck more power for basically no reason.

Now that most of the American public has a computer-- read: everyone who wants one already has bought one-- don't expect the PC market to come back any time soon, if at all.

Also RE: NForce2. Most "feature-filled" is both a negative and a positive. It's negative in that the boards cost more and many people don't have any use for the integrated crap. I guess the new NForce comes in more flavors so you can only get what you need (more or less), but still price is a factor. Don't get me wrong, I'd go with Nvidia over VIA any day, but the truth is motherboard and memory have so little impact on performance that I can't really justify the cost since my AMD761 board is still running fine (and is stable as a rock). I'd probably buy a new sound card first... Then again for the hardware enthusiasts motherboard and memory bandwidth is more important so they can post silly shots of them running SiSoft Sandra. But to each his own.

Lol. Its funny, you could have just posted your thoughts about the CC and it would have been a relevant post. Instead it was necessary to toss on the goggles and start in on Nvidia, on issues which were pretty irrelevant. How you somehow came up with a positive assesment of ATI's share price vs. Nvidia's was just the icing on the cake for the silliness.

To be honest I'm not sure either is a very good buy. I don't really think Nvidia is undervalued...they'll make money, but they aren't going to keep going like a rocket ship as they have in the past. Same thing for ATi and a lot of tech stocks...

 

[gkar1]

I guess that ATi executives do not want these sorts of credibility issues plaguing them.

I guess taking losses for the past 11 quarters isnt much to worry about credibility wise! (Its so much better to keep telling investors you will eventually make money like.. AMD.)

ATI is trading very cheaply IMO

See above.

So even if market share is gained(Of which I expect will be the case.)
Losing market share in a shrinking market is a recipie

Two, two, two hypothetical situations in one! Double your pleasure!

That said, ATi stock looks inviting.

You are right! They are the #1 supplier of graphics chips to the industry.. oh wait they arent. But they consistently turn in net profits! Oh wait.. they dont. Well, thier P/E is pretty damn low! Oh wait.. You cant have a P/E taking a loss, would imply you had positive earnings.. Well, the entire sector is looking up in the immediate future! Oh wait again..

Lol. Its funny, you could have just posted your thoughts about the CC and it would have been a relevant post. Instead it was necessary to toss on the goggles and start in on Nvidia, on issues which were pretty irrelevant. How you somehow came up with a positive assesment of ATI's share price vs. Nvidia's was just the icing on the cake for the silliness.

Hi, welcome to trollville!
Population = YOU

 

[Althornin]

the truth is motherboard and memory have so little impact on performance

I agree with most of what you say about the average joe user not needing more than a decent machine (600Mhz p3 would serve them more than fine), but this part of your post is wrong.

 

[tamattack]

You are right! They are the #1 supplier of graphics chips to the industry.. oh wait they arent. But they consistently turn in net profits! Oh wait.. they dont. Well, thier P/E is pretty damn low! Oh wait.. You cant have a P/E taking a loss, would imply you had positive earnings.. Well, the entire sector is looking up in the immediate future! Oh wait again..

As a financial analyst, I can tell you that you're missing the point. You shouldn't toss out terms like net profits and P/E if you don't really understand their use.

While valid measurements, the most important criterion is growth. Think about this. Having no growth prospects is much worse than having a loss.

 

[Geeforcer]

As a financial analyst, I can tell you that you're missing the point. You shouldn't toss out terms like net profits and P/E if you don't really understand their use.

While valid measurements, the most important criterion is growth. Think about this. Having no growth prospects is much worse than having a loss.

First, what growth do you have in mind: profit, revenue or some more obscure criteria, like market share? A company posting quarterly loses as opposed to profit for same quarter year ago does not exhibit profit growth, so what are we talking about here?

EDIT: How did I miss this?

Having no growth prospects is much worse than having a loss.

So let me get this straight, a hypothetical company earning $3-3.3 a year with single digit growth is "much worse" then a company growing 25-30% annually while taking huge looses? Boy, am I glad I didn't have you as my analyst for the last couple of years.[/quote]

 

[demalion]

Having no growth prospects is much worse than having a loss.

So let me get this straight, a hypothetical company earning $3-3.3 a year with single digit growth is "much worse" then a company growing 25-30% annually while taking huge looses? Boy, am I glad I didn't have you as my analyst for the last couple of years.

Why did you feel such a distorted case example was helpful here?

I don't see that "huge" in his text, in fact your reply doesn't really seem to fit his statement that closely. I also wonder at how helpful the "Boy, am I glad" comment was.

Are we headed for a condescension and deprecation contest for the rest of the thread? If so, can we nip it in the bud now?

 

[Username]

Are we headed for a condescension and deprecation contest for the rest of the thread? If so, can we nip it in the bud now?

Oh right, he throws stones, then wants peace when he gets pegged in the forehead with one.

I love the pathetic "You dont know what you are talking about idiot and you should shut up!" standard retort of the Beyond3D boards these days.

Ahh well, I suppose it must be fun to slap the goggles on and fight every losing battle.