Xbox Business Update Podcast | Xbox Everywhere Direction Discussion

What will Xbox do

  • Player owned digital libraries now on cloud

    Votes: 3 23.1%
  • Multiplatform all exclusives to all platforms

    Votes: 3 23.1%
  • Multiplatform only select exclusive titles

    Votes: 8 61.5%
  • Surface hardware strategy

    Votes: 2 15.4%
  • 3rd party hardware strategy

    Votes: 2 15.4%
  • Mobile hardware strategy

    Votes: 1 7.7%
  • Slim Revision hardware strategy

    Votes: 1 7.7%
  • This will be a nothing burger

    Votes: 4 30.8%
  • *new* Xbox Games for Mobile Strategy

    Votes: 2 15.4%
  • *new* Executive leadership changes (ie: named leaders moves/exits/retires)

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    13
  • Poll closed .
If the new Xbox is released in 2025 (but the same theory holds for 2026), how long will the games be made for the current Series consoles? This is a question because the introduction of a new Xbox requires modern marketing based on, for example, artificial intelligence and extremely powerful hardware. Will they do to the Series S/X what they did to the original Xbox because of the Xbox 360?
They'll just support S, X and X2 for quite some time. Like the ps5 pro the X2 will probably just be more powerful in areas easy to scale like ML upscalling and frame gen, RT, storage size.

Imagine that Fable is 1080p30 on S, 1440p40 on X and 4k60 with RT on X2. Maybe some later games have ML features that only work on X2, but probably not for years. Maybe ES6 or something.

2025: S is $199, X digital is $349, X2 is $549, probably all with 3 months of GP.
 
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I'm not sure of the ratio of S:X sales. It's possible series x sold a greater amount and MS can slowly drop support for Series S over a year or two and slot the X where the S is now. X2 would be the new premium modem. If Series S sold a greater amount then Series X then I don't think this would be the best path for MS to take. If they could indeed scale the Series S, or an equivalent using their hypervisor stuff, to a mobile form factor than continuing support for Series S profile makes sense. So many possibilities that are fun to think and ponder on even if they're fantastic speculation.

They could just design the hardware at varying levels of APU's with AMD and go the 3D0 route and let others manufacture it. Then again I suppose that would mean those others would need to make a profit on it and might be a bust too costly.
 
They'll just support S, X and X2 for quite some time. Like the ps5 pro the X2 will probably just be more powerful in areas easy to scale like ML upscalling and frame gen, RT, storage size.

Imagine that Fable is 1080p30 on S, 1440p40 on X and 4k60 with RT on X2. Maybe some later games have ML features that only work on X2, but probably not for years. Maybe ES6 or something.

2025: S is $199, X digital is $349, X2 is $549, probably all with 3 months of GP.


Some games could also just be supported with xcloud only on the series consoles if need be.
 
When considering the longevity of Series S I think it's remember that the difference between Series S and X is less than Xbox One and One X. And while the later years of One titles may have been lackluster when compared to it's contemporaries, there was still plenty of perfectly serviceable games, and a few stand out titles like the Forza Motorsport and Gears of War titles. I know memory is going to be an issue later on, but Series S still has fast storage, a very close to Series X CPU (when compared to One and One X), and I think scaling GPU work has traditionally been the easiest to scale, even if those optimizations are probably the most noticeable.
 
I'm not sure of the ratio of S:X sales. It's possible series x sold a greater amount and MS can slowly drop support for Series S over a year or two and slot the X where the S is now. X2 would be the new premium modem. If Series S sold a greater amount then Series X then I don't think this would be the best path for MS to take. If they could indeed scale the Series S, or an equivalent using their hypervisor stuff, to a mobile form factor than continuing support for Series S profile makes sense. So many possibilities that are fun to think and ponder on even if they're fantastic speculation.

They could just design the hardware at varying levels of APU's with AMD and go the 3D0 route and let others manufacture it. Then again I suppose that would mean those others would need to make a profit on it and might be a bust too costly.
X had more demand and S had more supply so sales were 50:50 for first 3 years. Should be more Xs sold since 2023 since X is more available now.
 
When considering the longevity of Series S I think it's remember that the difference between Series S and X is less than Xbox One and One X. And while the later years of One titles may have been lackluster when compared to it's contemporaries, there was still plenty of perfectly serviceable games, and a few stand out titles like the Forza Motorsport and Gears of War titles. I know memory is going to be an issue later on, but Series S still has fast storage, a very close to Series X CPU (when compared to One and One X), and I think scaling GPU work has traditionally been the easiest to scale, even if those optimizations are probably the most noticeable.

That is true. You could always simply drop the resolution of the series s and get longer support before switching to xcloud only
X had more demand and S had more supply so sales were 50:50 for first 3 years. Should be more Xs sold since 2023 since X is more available now.

Also if they do move to a new generation there is nothing stoping them from targeting a series x performance in a low cost console using the zen 5/ rdna 4/5
 
When considering the longevity of Series S I think it's remember that the difference between Series S and X is less than Xbox One and One X. And while the later years of One titles may have been lackluster when compared to it's contemporaries, there was still plenty of perfectly serviceable games, and a few stand out titles like the Forza Motorsport and Gears of War titles. I know memory is going to be an issue later on, but Series S still has fast storage, a very close to Series X CPU (when compared to One and One X), and I think scaling GPU work has traditionally been the easiest to scale, even if those optimizations are probably the most noticeable.
with the new forward compatibility approach I guess 100% compatibility with the Series S is a given, even on a handheld device, which is related to longevity.

The question is how to turn the Xbox around so it becomes successful. Maybe an alliance with Epic Games and GoG to compete with Steam could help.
 
The question is how to turn the Xbox around so it becomes successful. Maybe an alliance with Epic Games and GoG to compete with Steam could help.
  1. Stop chasing ReSoLuTiOn / FrAmErAtE boxes. They are in last place and there is no incentive this time from users to get Sony to lower prices. No dev is going to optimize for Xbox quirks over everything else that is available. Devs optimize for Switch over Xbox for example.
  2. Make online play FrEe. Xbox users are paying to play online while the same game has no such cost on PC, GeforceNow (?), etc.
  3. Ditch AMD. Again, nobody is optimizing for Xbox quirks, and you get countless articles when something is optimized for AMD over NVIDIA. You're already in last place. Take the upfront hit so the cost isn't passed to the consumer and use an NVIDIA or Intel GPU. Use ARM or Intel for the CPU. At least there the tools are quite mature to go from a Switch to a 4090.
  4. Stop the memory shenanigans. Every gen except 360 Microsoft skimps on memory size and ease of use. Even on 360 they were initially going with 256MB until Epic convinced them otherwise. Sure eventually AMD GPUs and CPUs used cache to punch above their weight, but again nobody optimizes for Xbox, and Microsoft saddled that machine with DDR3. Just use a straightforward pool of memory. Full stop.
  5. Stop listening to feedback :D. Sure the Xbox One controller had feedback triggers that got ignored, and the feedback was everything needs to be no lag, pro pro pro, we turn the rumble motors off anyway because we're so pro. Only to have the PS5 (and even Switch) controller come along and be adored for their feature set that wasn't about no latency pro pro pro feedback. Surely the follow-up Xbox One controller would have had the same abilities but... they once again listened to feedback.
  6. Ditch the Xbox Dashboard, the ads, and the microtransactions. Just make it a taskbar with a row of launchers. That's it. Users just want their stuff anyway, be it legit or pirated, and Microsoft is always preaching meeting the user where they are.
  7. Build a plan and stick to it. No more lukewarm commitments. Just commit to a plan. Users are tired of Agile. And users just want whatever the other companies are doing anyway. So carve your place and stick to it. Better to burn out than to fade away.
 
When considering the longevity of Series S I think it's remember that the difference between Series S and X is less than Xbox One and One X. And while the later years of One titles may have been lackluster when compared to it's contemporaries, there was still plenty of perfectly serviceable games, and a few stand out titles like the Forza Motorsport and Gears of War titles. I know memory is going to be an issue later on, but Series S still has fast storage, a very close to Series X CPU (when compared to One and One X), and I think scaling GPU work has traditionally been the easiest to scale, even if those optimizations are probably the most noticeable.

But the relatively comparison isn't very similar as the One X was a mid gen refresh, and based on what we know the developers aren't going to massively shift their optimization point to those platforms due to relative low volume.

The memory issue shouldn't be overlooked. The Xbox One had the same memory parity as the baseline which the Series S does to. At least they don't have to worry about CPU parity here. GPU scaling is probably the easiest by comparison for developers to accomadate for and ideally would have been the only difference. I can understand why they likely made the choice given the pricing of memory of when the decision was likely made but still in hindsight I wonder if they would've gone with another decision here.

The question is how to turn the Xbox around so it becomes successful. Maybe an alliance with Epic Games and GoG to compete with Steam could help.

GoG's model is not going to go anywhere from a mainstream stand point due to apprehension from most content creators. While consumers conceptually might like the idea og GoG it's really only a subset that truly support it via purchasing over other considerations including title availability and convience/familiarity (the vast majority will buy on eg. Steam instead). And we know this as even CDPR's own games signficantly outsell on Steam vs. GoG.

People might vocalize all sorts of idealism in terms of consumer activism but when it really comes down to it well... (this is why I always roll my eyes at consumer activisim and interjecting right/wrong into this, but I don't want to rant too much here).

I mean we can just look at the idea of releasing games with less platform exclusvity. There's some goodwill maybe in thought, but in practice the sentiment is "we'll just buy it on another platform of our choice."
 
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Tom Warren from the Verge with his opinion about the future of Xbox.(https://www.theverge.com/2024/4/18/24123318/microsoft-next-xbox-pc-future) Some pros, some cons. My question is how are they going to manage creating software for multiple hw SKUs. As well how will bringing other stores onto the Xbox benefit their hw model unless they are aiming to get out of the hw business. We could see a situation where people buy PS6 and instead of PC buy a licensed Xbox or something of the sort which is a PCesque Xbox as a secondary device for titles not available on the playstation. But with multiple game stores the Xbox game store would be competing with so many other stores on the same platform. Tom doesnt explain how this would work, just says it could have pros and cons. Are they just planning to become a third party developer?
 
I doubt any speculation where MS is not making a new Xbox. They've said they are. Any time Phil waxes philosophical about anything it turns into 101 wild theories.
 
  1. Stop chasing ReSoLuTiOn / FrAmErAtE boxes. They are in last place and there is no incentive this time from users to get Sony to lower prices. No dev is going to optimize for Xbox quirks over everything else that is available. Devs optimize for Switch over Xbox for example.
  2. Make online play FrEe. Xbox users are paying to play online while the same game has no such cost on PC, GeforceNow (?), etc.
  3. Ditch AMD. Again, nobody is optimizing for Xbox quirks, and you get countless articles when something is optimized for AMD over NVIDIA. You're already in last place. Take the upfront hit so the cost isn't passed to the consumer and use an NVIDIA or Intel GPU. Use ARM or Intel for the CPU. At least there the tools are quite mature to go from a Switch to a 4090.
  4. Stop the memory shenanigans. Every gen except 360 Microsoft skimps on memory size and ease of use. Even on 360 they were initially going with 256MB until Epic convinced them otherwise. Sure eventually AMD GPUs and CPUs used cache to punch above their weight, but again nobody optimizes for Xbox, and Microsoft saddled that machine with DDR3. Just use a straightforward pool of memory. Full stop.
  5. Stop listening to feedback :D. Sure the Xbox One controller had feedback triggers that got ignored, and the feedback was everything needs to be no lag, pro pro pro, we turn the rumble motors off anyway because we're so pro. Only to have the PS5 (and even Switch) controller come along and be adored for their feature set that wasn't about no latency pro pro pro feedback. Surely the follow-up Xbox One controller would have had the same abilities but... they once again listened to feedback.
  6. Ditch the Xbox Dashboard, the ads, and the microtransactions. Just make it a taskbar with a row of launchers. That's it. Users just want their stuff anyway, be it legit or pirated, and Microsoft is always preaching meeting the user where they are.
  7. Build a plan and stick to it. No more lukewarm commitments. Just commit to a plan. Users are tired of Agile. And users just want whatever the other companies are doing anyway. So carve your place and stick to it. Better to burn out than to fade away.

So you want them to just copy what everyone else is doing and some how people will want that console and not the ones it copied from ?
 
Tom Warren from the Verge with his opinion about the future of Xbox.(https://www.theverge.com/2024/4/18/24123318/microsoft-next-xbox-pc-future) Some pros, some cons. My question is how are they going to manage creating software for multiple hw SKUs. As well how will bringing other stores onto the Xbox benefit their hw model unless they are aiming to get out of the hw business. We could see a situation where people buy PS6 and instead of PC buy a licensed Xbox or something of the sort which is a PCesque Xbox as a secondary device for titles not available on the playstation. But with multiple game stores the Xbox game store would be competing with so many other stores on the same platform. Tom doesnt explain how this would work, just says it could have pros and cons. Are they just planning to become a third party developer?
it's Tom Warren, he kinda has a direct connection. They must make it work as expected. This would open up the opportunity to beat Steam at something; optimization and standards. A certified Xbox/Xboy whatever experience can bring it closer to the best things of console which are easy carefree UI and optimisation.

Also, it doesn't matter much if you open up the device to stores like Steam, within 5 days or so you are going to have a lot of new gamepass subscriptions.

 
Tom Warren from the Verge with his opinion about the future of Xbox.(https://www.theverge.com/2024/4/18/24123318/microsoft-next-xbox-pc-future) Some pros, some cons. My question is how are they going to manage creating software for multiple hw SKUs. As well how will bringing other stores onto the Xbox benefit their hw model unless they are aiming to get out of the hw business. We could see a situation where people buy PS6 and instead of PC buy a licensed Xbox or something of the sort which is a PCesque Xbox as a secondary device for titles not available on the playstation. But with multiple game stores the Xbox game store would be competing with so many other stores on the same platform. Tom doesnt explain how this would work, just says it could have pros and cons. Are they just planning to become a third party developer?
from your link, I am glad that someone finally realised what I highlight in bold below --especially taking into account that a lot, if not most, of new Windows based PCs are purchased by (PC) gamers, so this could help Windows too-.


For an Xbox handheld to be successful, it will have to leverage the strengths of Windows and Xbox in a smart combination.

On The Vergecast, I recently discussed my ideal for an Xbox handheld. It would run Windows at its core but never expose this to you so it looks and feels like an Xbox console, but if you want to run Steam games or Xbox games, you can. Microsoft has the ability to run the Xbox OS on Windows and has experimented with doing exactly that in the past.

The Steam Deck might have only sold a few million units so far, but it represents the biggest threat to Xbox consoles and Windows-based PC gaming ever. Valve has managed to create a console-like experience for PC games, and it has access to all of the best Xbox- and PlayStation-exclusive games through its Steam store.
 
it's Tom Warren, he kinda has a direct connection. They must make it work as expected. This would open up the opportunity to beat Steam at something; optimization and standards. A certified Xbox/Xboy whatever experience can bring it closer to the best things of console which are easy carefree UI and optimisation.

Also, it doesn't matter much if you open up the device to stores like Steam, within 5 days or so you are going to have a lot of new gamepass subscriptions.

Its down to execution really. If they can execute it can be a success. At the same time ensuring a steady supply of titles that take advantage of the hw.



from your link, I am glad that someone finally realised what I highlight in bold below --especially taking into account that a lot, if not most, of new Windows based PCs are purchased by (PC) gamers, so this could help Windows too-.

I agree the steam deck represents a huge threat to Microsoft's PC gaming business, but I think to a lesser extent the Xbox consoles. The biggest threat to the consoles in my opinion is Phil himself.
 
The biggest threat? In what way?

(I'd say the biggest threat is always the "what are we doing building hardware?" question)
Right? I see this all the time and it only comes from a very traditional view of ā€œwinningā€.

By the numbers Phil is a beast. From this moment forward Xbox will match or better PlayStations best revenue quarters, quarter after quarter despite being behind 2:1 in hardware and platform base.

They are currently the largest publisher on Sony and the majority of profits made on Sonys platform funnel back to MS.

They have significantly more black hole titles (titles that people return to once they are done with playing a side game) than any other publisher.

Xbox is secure and safe for a long time, and are well posed to transition to larger markets with the right titles to drive players there.
 
So you want them to just copy what everyone else is doing and some how people will want that console and not the ones it copied from ?
Microsoft has already accepted there's no real want for the Xbox console. Even Phil admits it when he stated, paraphrasing, no amount of highly rated games will move the needle. Again, their marketing is to meet the players where they are, and that is not on the Xbox console even based purely on their actions alone.

Listen, I used to be an Xbox whale with my disposable income. I have all the consoles and have always had an up to date gaming rig. As for Xbox, I pre-ordered an Xbox og as soon as it was available along with exclusives. I am first in line with Microsoft's hardware and software. I was an Xbox Live beta tester. I have all and played all the exclusives on the respective platforms. I own all the big games on their targeted platforms. I say all this to say I'm not tied to any one platform, and I support what's unique about every platform, even Kinect :runaway:.

But Satya scorched earth everything consumer facing and Phil is doing the same song and dance with Xbox I've seen many times now when Microsoft pivots. I do not mean as in they're dropping Xbox. I mean as in dragging the customer along just long enough to pivot.

So, listening to Microsoft's marketing and observing their efforts outside of the Xbox console itself, and again with loads of experience from all their products and services, consumers like myself are also pivoting.
  1. As of the introduction of Game Pass, I do not purchase anything on Xbox anymore. I used the $1 trick initially, and from then on I use points to have a perpetual 3 years of Game Pass banked. So all of it, even playing online, is all free. If Xbox goes away today I lose nothing, because I no longer invest in Xbox.
  2. Microsoft puts everything on PC (and some for now on other consoles), again meeting the players where they are. So for now I play on both PC and Xbox just because I happen to have an Xbox. Next generation I won't have an Xbox though, because what is the incentive to own an Xbox console? Afterall, people love to say how playing on other devices has no effect on the Xbox console, and how people that say there is an effect are backward thinking fanboys. Well, looking at the sales numbers and the personal account here, I don't think the point should be handwaved away.
  3. A high end Xbox means nothing when it's not the development focus. Even Microsoft's own devs put out a higher polished game recently on a different platform than their own Xbox. Also if a game is just on console, it's going to be optimized for everything but Xbox due to the sheer number of consumers on other platforms, so why buy the Xbox version? There is no reason to buy the Xbox version. So again, I no longer invest in Xbox.
So I reiterate the bulleted list from my previous post. It's not about copying everyone else. It's about accepting their current predicament and operating within it by just treating Xbox as another PC configuration that requires no special console development handholding. And that's much easier to do when console barriers are removed as outlined in the previous posts bulleted list.

This is not a doom and gloom post. This acknowledges Microsoft is making tons of money by meeting the players where they are. It just also acknowledges that not an insignificant amount of those players will transition away from being Xbox console owners. You don't have to take my word for it and just look at the overall sentiment online and the cratering console sales. There's no reason to own an Xbox console.

So to get ahead of those transitioning players, and to stay in line with the marketing, it makes sense to just offer anyone that remains an "xbox" with no barriers (it looks like a console, but it's just a PC, see the list). For other consoles, just offer your wares as your starting to do more of now. And since that "xbox" is just a PC, it's just a configuration to easily scale up or down to without any barriers (see list). Everybody wins.
 
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