Xbox Series S [XBSS] (Lockhart) General Rumors and Speculation *spawn*

[eastmen]

I think Lockhart has the potential to be extremely dangerous to MS's current (IMO, winning, with XSX's powerful specifications and likely similar pricing to PS5) hand they currently hold.

There is no need or use for it, scrap it.

The idea that it's a 1080P machine doesn't hold water, because one of the first thing devs are going to do is push XSX below 4k in pursuit of visuals. So what then, Lockhart is a 720P machine? Yuck. Besides that, I dont want my XSX constrained by being able to just run lockhart games at a higher res, the way my One X is constrained by being only able to run One games at a higher res.

Or, I could be wrong, LOL.

Lockheart will be a 3 year life cycle in terms of being sold. Comes out in 2020 or early 2021 and is sold till 2023 or early 2024. It comes in at $200-$250 and allows microsoft to get a huge install base that supports RDNA 2 and their design for a console. In 2023/24 both the x and s will be refreshed. You will see a redesigned X series based on what amd has at the time to improve performance per watt and drive costs down and then you will see a new halo product. IMO

I mean how long did the ps1 sell into the ps2 life cycle ? how long did the ps2 sell into the ps3 life cycle. Didn't sports games just come out on the ps3 like last year ?

 

[Xbat]

It comes in at $200-$250

Is that possible and it has an SSD ? If they can price it at $199 it makes sense to me but I don't see how that's possible.

 

[mrcorbo]

Just because they supporting both platforms doesn't mean they won't take advantage newer technologies & features on the XBSX. PC does this kind of thing all of the time.

Tommy McClain

There's definitely something to the argument of a next-gen exclusive allowing for a game design that can act as a more focused "showcase" of next gen hardware capabilities, but I think it's taken too far. You can show the power of a next-gen system by showing how it presents an enhanced experience in a cross-gen game. And there's nothing guaranteeing the former case will result in a better quality of gaming experience than the latter.

 

[Deleted member 11852]

Because Lockhart is not a console. That's why none of the rumors make sense.

It's a probably a cologne! Lockhart.. for men who play hard.

 

[Jay]

First party is where it will hold them back most. I know people say yeah but first party games don't matter but I disagree.
If the next Halo or Gears of War looks worse than Sony's first party games it will set a narrative which will diminish having the most powerful console amongst the mainstream gamers.

My view is there's a difference between consoles of the same generation e.g. entry level and mid gen compared to a new gen.
The only difference between XO and 1X is the power of the gpu.

Compare that to next gen:
CPU - huge power uograde
Storage - huge difference in performance
Memory - not as big a change
GPU - difference in IP and capabilities, not just raw TF difference.

So as an overall package XO and 1X are close
Lockhart to xsx is close as a package.
1X to Lockhart is not close as a whole package.

Graohics is the one part of games that scales pretty well compared to the rest of the system.
Lower resolution and some effects, disable some even.
Same CPU, storage, gpu, only difference is speed some run at. Not porting a game just tweeking the settings etc.

I don't necessarily disagree with you regarding cross gen games, but this was about games within the same generation.

 

[eastmen]

Is that possible and it has an SSD ? If they can price it at $199 it makes sense to me but I don't see how that's possible.

Yes , that is the point of the drive they decided to go with. 1 drive to rule them all. MS will be able to cost reduce the drive by selling it across more skus.

Look in the USA which is one of the largest console markets in the world we had 10m jobless claims in 2 weeks and that doesn't even include Disney furloughing all their park employees. The amount of people who want to buy a $400 or $500 console in the fall will be less than those willing ot buy a $200-$300 console. Whats more , if they can get the same image quality as the $400/$500 console at a lower resolution and all the new graphical features. What's more ? What if you buy it at a microsoft store or microsoft.com or through your current xbox and bundle it with game pass where you buy game pass ultimate for x amount of years up front or monthly and you get lock heart. There will be alot of people who will take advantage of such a situation .

 

[Xbat]

Well I will be very surprised and impressed if they can get Lockhart to $199. I'm sceptical it will even come out this year.

 

[iroboto]

Well I will be very surprised and impressed if they can get Lockhart to $199. I'm sceptical it will even come out this year.

oh it's not arriving this year. There are no other chips that are far along enough to release for the next while.

XSX will be the base console, and some games won't reverse (lower) themselves for lockhart if lockhart isn't a design spec today.

So it's not coming. At least not as a console format.

 

[manux]

DIsagree. Every game on both consoles for the first 1-2 years at least will be using an engine that wasn't developed specifically for the next gen consoles. Just because they all had to start development before there was even hardware for the next gen consoles.

So, they'll all generally be using engines created for current gen consoles and modified to take advantage of next gen consoles.

Even if that wasn't a factor, people still hugely underestimate how far you can scale things back in order for it to run on weaker hardware.

Regards,
SB

I agree. I would further add that most likely old consoles will still be supported for a while making next gen console improvements cosmetic improvements, not a requirement. At least MS has been vocal on old gen staying relevant for couple of more years.

I wonder if guerrilla games got any next gen benefit because their engine got pc support for death stranding and horizon zero dawn. Would be irony of all time if guerrilla added ray tracing support to their engine using nvidia hw in windows 10 that then ships on some close to launch game on ps5 Similarly guerrilla could already have done some cpu side and ssd optimizations using pc version of the engine.

 

[eastmen]

oh it's not arriving this year. There are no other chips that are far along enough to release for the next while.

XSX will be the base console, and some games won't reverse (lower) themselves for lockhart if lockhart isn't a design spec today.

So it's not coming. At least not as a console format.

You have Xbox One , Xbox one S , Ps4 , Ps4 pro , xbox one x , Ps5 and XSX and most likely that is the power order and so devs are already targeting all the consoles mostly with dynamic resolution. If the only change devs need to do is enable a 1080p dynamic res mode for Lockheart what is the issue ? Esp if MS is telling them to code it in.

 

[Esrever]

Lockheart might be engineered to be able to run games at xb1x setting if devs aren't going to do a specific build for it. There might already be things built into the dev environment and dev kit to target lockheart as well. Just because it's not coming now, doesn't mean games would need a lot of work to support it later.

I think $500 and $300 price point is a good balance for the 2 systems. Microsoft will likely still take a loss on $300 lockheart console but they can easily make up the difference on software and xbl if the adoption is greatly improved.

 

[iroboto]

You have Xbox One , Xbox one S , Ps4 , Ps4 pro , xbox one x , Ps5 and XSX and most likely that is the power order and so devs are already targeting all the consoles mostly with dynamic resolution. If the only change devs need to do is enable a 1080p dynamic res mode for Lockheart what is the issue ? Esp if MS is telling them to code it in.

I mean sure, yea if that's how it's going to be and no one is ambitious at all for the first 2 years or so. Then yea, you can have that type of thing going on. But why? They aren't forced to release a cheaper console.
their current console is more powerful and possibly nearly priced the same. What value would there be, to bring in a cheaper alternative? You already said it yourself, the first 2 years will run on this current generation of devices. Your library will carry forward. Your accessories will as well. So in 2 years time will XSX be at the price point people want it at.

 

[Jay]

XSX will be the base console, and some games won't reverse (lower) themselves for lockhart if lockhart isn't a design spec today.

The fact that the xsx dev box would be the dev box for both consoles anyway is important.
So ms could just say to devs, make sure runs on Lockhart also, which is a profile mode on dev box.
Console doesn't need to be out, just the dev box.

their current console is more powerful and possibly nearly priced the same.

Come on, you know better.
CPU, ssd, gpu feature set.
No way you can say it's more powerful!
Even gpu isn't unless you want to just compare TF which you know isn't apple to apples.

1X can't run next gen games, Lockhart can. There's the reason

 

[iroboto]

The fact that the xsx dev box would be the dev box for both consoles anyway is important.
So ms could just say to devs, make sure runs on Lockhart also, which is a profile mode on dev box.
Console doesn't need to be out, just the dev box.

Come on, you know better.
CPU, ssd, gpu feature set.
No way you can say it's more powerful!
Even gpu isn't unless you want to just compare TF which you know isn't apple to apples.

1X can't run next gen games, Lockhart can. There's the reason

Lol, maybe I do know better.

Well you are right that a dev kit can support both; absolutely and if Lockhart is a thing this is the way to do it.

Cutting the GPU down won’t save a ton of costs. XSX is 360mm^2. Cutting the memory will though. Perhaps back at 12. I dunno. But if the price differential isn’t enough why bother. There has to be a reason for everything; making a cheaper product to service a lower cost area is a good reason but that happens over time anyway. If the goal is to reach the largest market possible they can do that with streaming. They already announced that.
But why make a second console?
They already conceded that the largest possible market share or number of customers is exactly what PS4 / Pro did this year. That’s the most. 100 million. Why invest in 2 consoles to gather 100 million when they have their sights on 1-2 billion potential users.

Or to put another way, when Phil Spencer said we Sony and Nintendo was no longer their competition (to the anger of many fans) and that they would rather not fight two fronts. They will go and now attack the console market with 2 fronts?

or perhaps there are other markets to chase.

 

[PSman1700]

Come on, you know better.
CPU, ssd, gpu feature set.
No way you can say it's more powerful!
Even gpu isn't unless you want to just compare TF which you know isn't apple to apples.

XSX is the more powerfull/better specced console of the two, more powerfull GPU, a somewhat faster clocked CPU, and higher BW (for the graphics pool). Sony most likely has the faster SSD, but its not fully clear yet there how bcpack will affact that regarding sustained transfer rates, it might be not too far off in the end. Audio might be on sony's side too (more advanced, faster?).

But why make a second console?

Dunno, they indeed have the more powerfull box at the same (or almost same) price, which would be competitive already, esp with gamepass bundles. Hardware most likely gets cheaper to produce over time. They have their existing One s/x already, a 4TF variant wont be that much needed. XSX seems the next gen base console for MS.

 

[iroboto]

XSX is the more powerfull/better specced console of the two, more powerfull GPU, a somewhat faster clocked CPU, and higher BW (for the graphics pool). Sony most likely has the faster SSD, but its not fully clear yet there how bcpack will affact that regarding sustained transfer rates, it might be not too far off in the end. Audio might be on sony's side too (more advanced, faster?).

He's referring to lockhart vs Xbox One X. Not between PS5 and XSX.

 

[Jay]

Cutting the GPU down won’t save a ton of costs. XSX is 360mm^2. Cutting the memory will though. Perhaps back at 12. I dunno. But if the price differential isn’t enough why bother. There has to be a reason for everything; making a cheaper product to service a lower cost area is a good reason but that happens over time anyway. If the goal is to reach the largest market possible they can do that with streaming. They already announced that.

How you could make savings is the biggest questions for me.

Around a third the amount of CU's will make the soc pretty small.
Smaller and cheaper cooling and power delivery.
Smaller case.
No UHD drive, which also means no used games at all, so even a few digital sales instead of second hand probably adds up.
12GB memory
Maybe 750GB SSD. Considering no 4k assets, and can cut down the amount of save state games from 4 to 3 whatever the figure was. You could end up being able to download almost same amount of games.

Amount of loss made on xsx and Lockhart doesn't need to be the same.

If the xsx (and ps5) is $500 and can get the Lockhart to $350 I think it would be pretty decent pricing.

Personally I wouldn't do a staggered launch, but 6 or so months later when everyone who is willing to spend $500 on an xbox is starting to slow down, release of an entry model could give it a huge momentum boost and continuation.

 

[dobwal]

How you could make savings is the biggest questions for me.

Around a third the amount of CU's will make the soc pretty small.
Smaller and cheaper cooling and power delivery.
Smaller case.
No UHD drive, which also means no used games at all, so even a few digital sales instead of second hand probably adds up.
12GB memory
Maybe 750GB SSD. Considering no 4k assets, and can cut down the amount of save state games from 4 to 3 whatever the figure was. You could end up being able to download almost same amount of games.

Amount of loss made on xsx and Lockhart doesn't need to be the same.

If the xsx (and ps5) is $500 and can get the Lockhart to $350 I think it would be pretty decent pricing.

Personally I wouldn't do a staggered launch, but 6 or so months later when everyone who is willing to spend $500 on an xbox is starting to slow down, release of an entry model could give it a huge momentum boost and continuation.

Who wants to optimize a port to a piece of hardware that won’t be available when their software launches?

That’s forcing devs to spend time and effort to support a piece of hardware that won’t allow them to maximize the returns of that effort and time.

Orchestrating a staggered launch in such manner makes little sense especially a six month stagger. Let’s skip the holiday buying season so people will go out and buy a new cheaper console during one of the slowest times of the year.

 

[Frenetic Pony]

The problem with Lockhart is the same problem that the PS5 has. And that is, if you're targeting a system that can fundamentally play the same titles, there's just not much savings you can get.

Let's take the APU. AMD, as tradition, charges per mm despite this not really being the primary cost driver, but it's how it works in principle. You can cut down the GPU portion to half, less than, and you'd still only cut the total APU size to 80% or so, maybe, of the Xsx one. From $122 to... $99, 23 savings, not much. Then there's storage. You can't go small, that ruins attach rate. Half the cost then for half the performance? From $100, to $50. Then there's ram, I don't even know how how well cutting it down to 8gb would go over with devs, "wtf do you mean we don't get almost anymore ram than last gen, I thought this was an UPGRADE". But, maybe another $25 saved.

In total you've gone from $500 to... $400, for a significantly less powerful machine. Maybe you save a few extra bucks here or there, but the Xsx might cost a little over $500 to make anyway so it could easily be moot. Let's face it, 20% lower cost for "half the machine" as the public would perceive doesn't have the feel of a big seller.

Only way I can see Lockhart working well is if it ditches the "plays the exact same title as Xsx" requirement AND it's a mobile device/Switch competitor.

 

[Jay]

wtf do you mean we don't get almost anymore ram than last gen, I thought this was an UPGRADE"

Most people aren't measuring specs like that.
How many gamers know how much ram there is? If you ask they'll probably say 500GB.
And that's probably the knowledge ones, not the ones who just want to play a few games.

In total you've gone from $500 to... $400, for a significantly less powerful machine. Maybe you save a few extra bucks here or there, but the Xsx might cost a little over $500 to make anyway so it could easily be moot. Let's face it, 20% lower cost for "half the machine" as the public would perceive doesn't have the feel of a big seller.

How many products are there that if you pay a little more you can get substantially better.
Answer is a lot, but people can only afford what they can afford or willing to pay.
Fact is for the price even if its got less power than the xsx, it will give a very comparable experience. The case could be made that it could make the xsx look bad in comparison.

For a lot of people $150 is a lot of money.
It is about if they can make enough savings as you have pointed out.
But, all those minor cuts add up, and if it could give them a significant market share could easily be worth it.

Someone mentioned got xcloud that can be used for that market segment. As Phil has pointed out, it's not a console replacement. Otherwise why not just replace xsx with xcloud also and up the feed to 4k.
Latency is still a thing regarless of resolution.