Xbox Game Pass: Unlimited Access To More Than 100 Games [XGP]

Discussion in 'Console Industry' started by Arnold Beckenbauer, Feb 28, 2017.

  1. iroboto

    iroboto Daft Funk
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    Yea ;)
    We talked about where this is headed right ;)
    Consider at the very least, never losing your player base in the near future because of no more generation resets.
    Then you enable streaming to PC or specific streaming devices. You can get a lot more heads that way.
    and then ideally over time, you get your services onto other consoles.

    But once again if we're talking revenue numbers. If everything is being hidden (and for many reasons it should be) then we don't know how much they profit through game pass or just directly related to being a game pass user. We don't know what the ad revenue is, or the DLC spend becomes, or any more purchases, or whether there is a strong correlation with subscribing to gold as well. It's hard to really know those numbers and MS clearly is data mining the shit out of their whole service.

    If they can simulate the 1X and determine how game code is going to run on that chip before it's produced, I assure you, they have full data mining on how xbox users generate them revenue. I'm almost positive they're using their Azure ML suite without a doubt it's been used at least once, as they use for their ML tools for servicing their first party games today.

    They have all the numbers and it should be guarded in order for the service to be successful, but also for the confidentiality of their clients (publishers, developers etc) because it's entirely possible and likely that not every company has the same 'deal' when it comes to making money off game pass.
     
    #201 iroboto, Feb 8, 2018
    Last edited: Feb 8, 2018
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  2. RobertR1

    RobertR1 Pro
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    There was a deal for 3 a month for game pass that kept stacking. I got 15months worth so I'm more than happy. Looking forward to playing Fable Anniversary first :D
     
  3. Arnold Beckenbauer

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    Mistery! A case for Scully and Mulder?
     
  4. dobwal

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    Game Pass won't be responsible for the total development budget of a title unless that title is exclusive to that service. MS doesn't expect 100% coverage of its userbase. Non game pass users will buy titles that generate revenue and profit.

    And while Netflix has a greater potential in terms of userbase size. It also has to deal with much greater competition for all its third party content. Netflix competes with 100s of providers for content who act to drive up licensing costs. Outside of EA there is no competitor for Xbox software. And while Sony serves as an overall competitor how much money is it willing spend to gain exclusivity for its service? The natural countermove to such action is simply to engage in more first party investment to drive the service.

    5 million subs paying $10 a month with an overall console userbase of 50 million allows 45 million who can buy your first party title directly and 5 million users who spend $600 million a year to get access to that title through a service.

    Regardless, MS or Sony wont have to deal with numerous competitors whose numbers help drive up prices for licensing content. And MS and Sony have access to traditional revenue streams that Netflix doesn't currently engage in.

    MS model is analogous to selling movie tickets as well as sub services that allow same day access. It benefits from both ends.
     
  5. Shifty Geezer

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    Why would people not subscribe to Game Pass in order to get these first party games? It's cheaper and they get more content. Typically the reason people would choose to buy instead of rent like this is because renting means waiting, but as that's not the case here, the no-brainer economy is to subscribe.
     
  6. dobwal

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    Subscription doesn't equal automatic savings. If I'm strictly attracted to Halo and little else on the service then a sub may not make sense.

    I might rather just spend $60 instead of jumping through hoops to make the purchase cheaper.
     
  7. rokkerkory

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    I think by next-gen this is going to be pretty damn big. Games as a service makes sense when now you've added 1st party games too. For $120 a year, it's pretty damn good deal.
     
  8. Shifty Geezer

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    How many people are only interested in one game? I agree it's not going to be 100% appeal, but day-one exclusives means far, far higher adoption should happen than usual for subscription services.
     
  9. dobwal

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    Given that readily no first party title captures a significant portion of a console userbase. Probably plenty.

    If you are a buyer of a ton of games at release and MS first party titles have limited appeal then financially, game pass may make little sense.

    Most of the games that I might have found appealing on game pass are not because they are games I already own. And outside of SOD2, I am not in the market for MS first party titles. I can find plenty of appealing games to eat $120 a year. MS future first party releases and/or third party licensing may change that or might not.

    Game pass won't appeal to everybody and the people not enticed are still viable for direct sales.
     
  10. Rangers

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    I was interested in Sea of Thieves, but certainly not sure to plunk down $60 for it. So Gamepass, here I come...then I see I automatically get a free two week trial (I believe everyone does)! Even better. I initially figured (not knowing about the two week free trial) I'd pay the 11.99 (seems to actually be 9.99m, again, even better) and try it for a month. But I get two weeks to try it before even considering putting down a measly ten bucks for another full month! And i get to see what else gamepass has on offer? No brainer. Also really like that Thieves isn't the usual 60-100 gigs but a svelte 18GB. Easy on the ol data cap/time to download.

    It actually seems almost too good to be true. Judging by this thread on Era where it seems the vast majority of Sea of Thieves players are using Gamepass, if not the free trial: https://www.resetera.com/threads/how-many-of-you-actually-bought-sea-of-thieves-vs-game-pass.30999/

    So for now, Era isn't representative necessarily, but a LOT of SOT players are probably playing, at least initially, for free.

    Which probably isn't even all bad for MS, if enough buy microtransaction. After all fortnight is free and sweeping the gaming world.

    I recall seeing on Era basically that, microtransaction conversion rates are much higher than DLC conversion rates (in other words many more players of a given title are likely to buy a microtransaction, than purchase a DLC at any point). That was very interesting to file away, and might give a clue why microtransactions are such a big deal to publishers.

    I mean I guess, MS must be waiting with baited breath to see how many stay at least one month, or longer. Many by forgetting they had a sub or being too lazy to bother turning it off is my guess.

    BTW I've had issues with EA Access on Xbox cancellations in the past, it seems quite difficult (the Xbox website wouldn't seem to allow me to cancel with Chrome Browser for example, I had to switch to edge just to get it to work, which is absurd, then on top of that each time I cancel EA access I seem to get charge for the next month, regardless, before it actually turns off). So I am a bit wary here. I do believe MS actually tries to make it difficult to cancel sub services. That I see, with gamepass you cannot cancel from the console, (just like EA access), but must cancel from a PC or some other device. Very shady and deliberate IMO. There should be an easy cancel button accessible directly from the console!

    At this point, for any new game, there's almost no reason NOT to buy gamepass if you're interested in any first party MS title. Likely almost any game that's not a GAAS, I can gorge myself full on in 1 month, two at most, so ten bucks vs sixty bucks?

    Like I said if anything I just wonder how this can be profitable for MS. Maybe they are looking at Netflix STOCK which is very high, but AFAIK Netflix hasn't actually made that much PROFIT yet either.

    I really didn't find much of interest yet in the entire rest of the library though. A lot of 360 games. I have almost no interest in last gen games right off the bat so that knocks a lot of the library out for me. It smells like they try to flesh out the library with a lot of filler and 360 games so they can get the numbers higher.

    You're also gonna need a good ISP to really take advantage, at least of the Triple A games.

    I realize I'm way late to the party but the potential of this to be a game changer really dawned on me. Personally, ***I*** would likely still buy the Halo's and Gear's of the world, MAYBE. But that's me, a minority case.
     
    #210 Rangers, Mar 21, 2018
    Last edited: Mar 21, 2018
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  11. AzBat

    AzBat Agent of the Bat
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    Should have received an email for the free trial. It will have links to manage your subscription.

    Tommy McClain
     
  12. Silent_Buddha

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    Think of it another way.

    There are a LOT of people that won't buy Sea of Thieves for 60 USD. Most Streamer's I've watched don't recommend people to buy Sea of Thieves for 60 USD even though they find it insanely fun. Their concern is mostly based around a perceived lack of content. The developers are planning content drops in the future, but without knowing what that will be, 60 USD is a lot to plonk down.

    So, every time I watch a stream of Sea of Thieves, the streamer is urging people to try it on Game Pass just to see what it is like rather than telling them to wait for more content or to just not buy it.

    So, the break even point if people are getting Gamepass ONLY to play SOT would be 6 people who would otherwise not even try SOT due to the 60 USD price. And that's only if they immediately cancel their sub and don't buy the game. If they keep their sub or buy the game, then the profit is even higher.

    And anecdotally (RL, forums, stream chat, etc.) a LOT of people are trying this on Game Pass who had absolutely zero intention of buying the game.

    So, if say 6 million people who had no intentions of buying the game hop on Game Pass to try it out, that's ~60 million USD that Microsoft just made that they wouldn't have made before.

    The question is, how many people were planning on buying SOT but then found out it's on Game Pass and are going to do that instead? I'm going to bet it's a lot less than the number of people who weren't going to buy it but are willing to try it for 10 or 12 USD.

    Now, out of those that weren't going to buy it in the first place, but get Game Pass to try it... How many of those end up liking the game and buying it or liking Game Pass and keep their subscription? Both of those cases have a potentially multiplicative effect on revenue earned. All from people that would never buy SOT at 60 USD.

    If they try it and cancel, MS still got 10/12 USD from someone who wasn't going to buy it. If they try it, cancel Game Pass, and then buy it, they just made an extra 70/72 USD (60 + 10/12). If they try it on Game Pass and keep their sub, MS now has a steady revenue stream from someone.

    IMO, one of the reasons that Microsoft raised the price to 60 USD from 40 USD was to make Game Pass more attractive and give people sitting on the fence about trying Sea of Thieves a more compelling reason to try it. Instead of saving 30 USD to try it on Game Pass, now they'll save 50 USD to try it on Game Pass! :p

    IMO, it's a win/win for MS as the sales outlook for Sea of Thieves was iffy (it's basically a online social/pvp game).

    Now, when it comes to a core franchise like Halo, the value proposition is going to be far more questionable. But the same dynamic comes into play of getting people who wouldn't normally buy Halo, to give it a try at 10/12 USD.

    Regards,
    SB
     
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  13. Rangers

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    I just signed up on the Xbox console, and the free trial was automatic. No links or email involved.

    Edit: Nevermind, now I get what you're saying and found it. Still there definitely should be an easy option to cancel via the console itself.
     
    #213 Rangers, Mar 22, 2018
    Last edited: Mar 22, 2018
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  14. BRiT

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    So the cheapest way of getting Xbox Games Pass has slightly changed. Bing Rewards no longer has 1 year offers up for 29,000 points. They only offer 1 month (7,000) and 3 months (18,000). However they have a deal running until May 15th, where 1 month is down to 5,600 and 3 months is down to 14,400 points at level 2 discounts.

    Also, rumor has it that Halo: Master Chief Collection will hit Xbox Games Pass once the big patches for it rolls out.
     
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  15. BRiT

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    Rocket League is part of the Xbox Game Pass!

     
  16. BRiT

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    Doom and Rage are joining Xbox Games Pass.

     
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  17. AzBat

    AzBat Agent of the Bat
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    Game Pass is getting it's own mobile app...



    Maybe the start of the streaming service?

    Tommy McClain
     
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  18. Shifty Geezer

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    When was iOS Beta a thing??
     
  19. BRiT

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    https://news.xbox.com/en-us/2018/08/30/xbox-game-pass-september-2018/

    Xbox Game Pass members, we’ve got some great additions to the Xbox Game Pass catalog this September to tell you about, including Halo: The Master Chief Collection, Quantum Break, Onrush, Aven Colony, Shadow Warrior 1, Sky-Force Reloaded, Snake Pass, Manuel Samuel, Giana Sisters: Twisted Dreams and InnerSpace. You can find all these titles on the Xbox Game Pass tab on your home console. They’re all coming to Xbox Game Pass this September, in addition to the over 100 more great games included in your membership.
     
  20. DrJay24

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    Looking forward to Onrush in 4k.
     
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