Xbox Game Pass: Unlimited Access To More Than 100 Games [XGP]

Discussion in 'Console Industry' started by Arnold Beckenbauer, Feb 28, 2017.

  1. Shifty Geezer

    Shifty Geezer uber-Troll!
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    That should be somewhat answerable using software attach ratio. XB360 was <12 units over 8 years on the market? I don't see any data anywhere that suggest tie ratio is greater than 2 titles a year. I guess that doesn't include download titles where smaller titles can be entertaining short-term time sinks. It also won't include borrowed games and second-hand sales. A think a predictable $120 a year from all owners would be highly valued. Maybe MS should try their rental idea again, including Game Pass alongside a console rental scheme? Seems to work for mobile phone operators. $20 a month for a console and all the games you want, $240 a year, ~ $1000 over 4 years, less $250 for hardware, for 30 million owners would be over $20 billion, or 5 billion a year give or take. That sounds pretty solid!
     
  2. iroboto

    iroboto Daft Funk
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    Such a thing existed? Whoa. First I've heard of it
     
  3. zed

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    you're assuming that the xbox 360 sold 80 million consoles day 1 and each of those console stuck around for 8 years. of course it doesnt work out that way, dont know how long an average console lasts? ~3 years perhaps but thats just a guess.
    I dont think any console ever had ~2 attach rate after a year on the market, xbox 360 had attach rate of 5.2 after 1 year on the market, of course the actual attach rate will be higher since some of those consoles will be replacements
     
  4. Silent_Buddha

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    Additionally if a very small minority of the user base is buying the greater majority of titles, that would indicate that there are many households that only buy 1 title a year. If you can entice them to basically double their game buying budget per year via the subscription service, that's a win for everyone involved.

    Also, if we assume that those gamers with high disposable incomes generally buy games at launch or within say 1-6 months of launch and that outside of MS first party titles, no 3rd party titles go into Gamepass day and date with retail, then they aren't really losing that much money from those gamers that buy a lot of titles per year.

    It'd certainly be interesting to have the market and sales data that Microsoft have available to them as well as the user metrics (buying habits, ownership rates, time spent in game, etc.) that they have available.

    Regards,
    SB
     
  5. Shifty Geezer

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    There was a hire purchase option for XB360 in the US.
    No I'm not. I took middling points of numbers - hardware cost for the consoles doesn't factor in price drops while I specified 4 years instead of a possible 6-8 for the generation. It's obviously nothing like exact, but for illustration purposes shows what's possible.
     
  6. iroboto

    iroboto Daft Funk
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    And it would be easy to figure out. MS knows all the game licenses you have access to and don’t. They know how many discs you have and don’t. Etc.
     
  7. mrcorbo

    mrcorbo Foo Fighter
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    Back in October 2009, when we were still getting enough sales info to calculate such things, I had the average yearly purchase rate pegged to just under 5 games per year and falling as the average time of ownership increased.
     
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  8. BRiT

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  9. dobwal

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  10. mrcorbo

    mrcorbo Foo Fighter
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    Nah. People with new consoles buy more games than those that have had their consoles for a while and holiday sales artificially inflate the purchase rate. As the average time of ownership increases the average purchase rate drops and as the total time on the market of the console increases there is more "normal" sales data to moderate the effect of holiday software sales.

    I'd be interested to see if F2P and GaaS has impacted purchase rate gen over gen, but it's sadly not possible (for us) with the information we're given now.
     
  11. AlBran

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    One thing that's nice about EA Access are the trials for games not in the vault, although with MS 1st party being in Game Pass @ launch it's a moot point.

    Gold subs have that free weekend pass for select games, but you spend 1 day downloading up to 100 GB, and it's on their own specified weekend schedule, not your own, so it's useless to me because I'd rather play my own games for extended periods of time on the weekend while playing trial stuff over the week since that's time-limited anyway.
     
  12. Metal_Spirit

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    Althought there similarities between services, there's a diference that is really really huge!
    Movies have extra sources of income (box office). A good movie may already be payed when leaving cinema going to rental!
    Games do not have that,and require sales!
     
  13. RobertR1

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    Netflix original content has no box office version. There are physical copies you can purchase after the fact games (digital and physical). Netflix will be producing more and more movies.
     
  14. Metal_Spirit

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    Not talking about exclusives... That is an investment, same (or better) as pub. I´m talking about running costs! Licence fees of something already payed cannot have the same cost of something that has yet to be payed.
    Netflix may have it´s exclusives but it will never have the lastest star wars on release day. Same with Game Pass... it cannot ever have the latest GTA on release day. Same as movies that pay themselfs with box office, games have to pay themselves on sales. Only after that they can go to a rental service.
    In 2016 netflix generated 8.830 bilions from 93.8 milion active payers, but after expenses and taxes the profit was 186 million. Even if they wanted, with profits like these the service could never have moviest from thirds on release day.
    Microsoft has a maximum market of 35 milion users, and not all will adopt the service, so... profits from the service will be smaller and expanding the quality of it´s offer will not be as easy (development, production, and marketing of AAA games make them quite expensive). Even less after you put your exclusives there and with that decrease your profits!
     
  15. Silent_Buddha

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    Eh? Games most certainly do have extra sources of income.

    Traditionally that would be licensing of the game IP for making Toys, clothing and miscellaneous other products. Blizzard for example has likely made as much or more from licensing and physical products as they have from their games. Minecraft also makes a lot of money from licensing and physical products (plushies and toys). Nintendo make bank on this stuff.

    Add to that, now you have both DLC and micro-transactions.

    If you can expand the number of people playing a game because you've now made it affordable to them, you increase the chances that those secondary streams of revenue will increase even if your primary stream of revenue (game purchase) decreases.

    Regards,
    SB
     
  16. Metal_Spirit

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    Shure... ok... but can you pay a 50 million game on toys?
    Besides, DLC... you are going to pay for DLC on for a game you do not own but only rented on Game Pass?
    Netflix has now 107 milion paying accounts and has not managed to bring cinema blockbusters to its service on release day. And the potencial market is gigantic with the netflix app available on all modern devices for free.
    So, how could Microsoft change that with a 35 million maximum user base, and the service limited to its console?
     
  17. AzBat

    AzBat Agent of the Bat
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    Bright says Hi. It's getting a sequel too.

    Baby steps. Netflix didn't always have 107 million paying accounts. At the end of 2006 they had 6.3 million DVD subscribers before launching digital streaming in February 2007. By then end of 2007 they had 7.4 million subscribers. Source. You have start somewhere. BTW Netflix didn't start producing their own content until 2013 & it had 27 million subscribers at the end of 2012. Again baby steps. I understand cynicism but come on.

    Tommy McClain
     
    #197 AzBat, Feb 6, 2018
    Last edited: Feb 6, 2018
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  18. Shifty Geezer

    Shifty Geezer uber-Troll!
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    He said 'bring'. When other producers are releasing their day-one cinema releases on Netflix, then
    they have transitioned.

    You're right. However, Metal_Spirit's also right that Netflix can attract from a potential billion-head market, and that was the potential when the streaming service started, whereas Game Pass can only attract 50 million+ tops, so there'll be limited revenue for funding big titles and attracting third parties. What's really missing here is bringing the service to the billion strong PC market. That would make it as potentially universal as TV.
     
  19. Metal_Spirit

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    True... But it all depends on the costs involved... Near the end of 2017 netflix those 107 million subscribers, and had a 38 bilion income. Yet profits were 186 million.
    When Microsoft is asked how many subscribers they have they don´t say. They only say it passed their expectations!
    But if Microsoft is placing their exclusives there, and lets say there are two per year, they are putting 100 millions worth of investment in the service. I do not doubt the service can be profitable in a couple years, but those baby steps in revenue were not accompanied with baby steps in investment.
    So there is a typo in your message. This is not cynicism (why the fuck you thought of that??), it is realism, it is a legit question! A discussion!
     
  20. Silent_Buddha

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    It's not there yet, however, Microsoft aren't excluding the PC.

    https://www.tweaktown.com/news/60638/play-anywhere-xbox-game-pass-games-pc/index.html

    Play Anywhere titles in Xbox Game Pass can also be played on PC. I imagine when there are more "play anywhere" titles available that MS would officially open up a Game Pass service on PC.

    That would be relatively huge for them as they only get a miniscule piece of the digital game content pie on PC (Steam is the 800 lb. gorilla here).

    As well, considering their work with getting BC working on the XBO-X, it isn't completely out there that they could be working internally on a Xbox emulator for PC, although that may not be needed if the Xbox moves to all games being UWP.

    If that happens, then Microsoft would greatly expand the possible reach of the service. And more importantly expand it into an area where they currently have minimal monetization of game sales.

    Regards,
    SB
     
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