XBox 360's lackluster launch in Japan: The potential Impacts

[speng]

What are your thoughts on the impact of the XBox 360s not so great launch in Japan?

There are some big games scheduled to come out or have come out.

1. Ninety Nine Nights
2. Blue Dragon
3. Enchant Arm
4. Chromehounds
5. Lost Odyssey
6. DOA 4
7. Ninja Gaiden 2
8. Dead Rising
9. FF X1
10. RR 6

RR 6 and DOA 4 are out, DOA 4 didn't show any significant change to the sales after release.

Do you think some publishers may be beginning to move their "A" team to the PS3 (if not already there)?

Do you think they may start moving some of ther games to the Revolution focus instead of Xbox 360 as their second preferred machine? Given that the Nintendo DS has been phenomenal in Japan, they might see it as the same for the Revolution.

Do you think MS might start shifting shipments away from Japan that were already planned and move them to Europe and other territories to strengthen their installed base?
Do they have to keep to their commitments or risk loosing publishers who are currently building games for the system? Some of these games are games that do well both in Japan and US, but those games were probably multi-system anyway.

Could Sony switch focus and do a dual release in US and Japan since the XBox 360's likely lead in Japan will be very small? They could begin to cut into the Xbox 360's lead earlier and quickly in the US.

Would MS reduce royalty fees or provide even more incentives to keep the publishers/developers on the Xbox 360 in Japan if they start noticing defectors?

Thoughts?

For Reference the list of announced Japanese publishers/games.

Activision, Inc.: Call of Duty® 2, Tony Hawk's American Wasteland, QUAKE™ 4, Gun
A R C System Works Co. Ltd.: Versus Tactical Action (working title)
Artdink Corp.: A-Train X
Atari® Japan Co. Ltd.: Test Drive® Unlimited
Bandai Co. Ltd.: Mobile Suit Gundam (working title)
Banpresto Co. Ltd.: Super Robot Wars (working title)
Capcom: Biohazard 5 (Resident Evil 5), Dead Rising
Cavia Inc.: Title to be announced
D3 Publisher Inc.: E-D-FX (working title), Chambara Beauty X (working title)
Eidos: Title to be announced
Electronic Arts: FIFA 2006, NBA Live 06, Need for Speedâ„¢ Most Wanted
FromSoftware Inc.: eNCHANT arM
Frontier Groove Inc.: Title to be announced
G.Rev Ltd.: Title to be announced
Genki Co. Ltd.: Shutokou Battle (working title)
Hamster Corp.: Title to be announced
Hudson Soft: Far East of Eden Ziria—Tales from Distant Jipang
Idea Factory: Title to be announced
Jaleco Entertainment: Title to be announced
Kids Station Inc.: Title to be announced
KOEI: Dynasty Warriors® 5
Konami: Winning Eleven (working title), Rumble Roses XX (working title), Proyakyu Spirits (working title)
Marvelous Interactive Inc.: Title to be announced
Microsoft: NINETY-NINE NIGHTS, Every Party, Project Gotham Racing® 3
Namco: Frame City Killer, Ridge Racer 6, RPG title to be announced, Love Football (working title)
SEGA®: Chromehounds (working title)
SNK PLAYMORE: King of Fighters Maximum Impact 2
(working title)
Spike Co. Ltd.: Title to be announced
Square/Enix: FINAL FANTASY® XI
Success Corp.: Zookeeper (working title), Operation Darkness (working title)
TAITO Corp.: World Airforce (working title)
Tecmo: Dead or Alive® 4, Dead or Alive Xtreme 2, Project Progressive, Dead or Alive Code: Cronus
THQ Japan: Saints Row, The Outfitâ„¢
Tomy: Zoids (working title)
Treasure Co. Ltd.: Title to be announced
Ubisoft: Ghost Recon Advanced Warfighter (working title)
Vivendi Universal Games: Title to be announced
Yuke's Co. Ltd.: Wrestle Kingdom

 

[Guden Oden]

I think people are making too big a deal out of the launch. The 360 is likely going to stay with us for 5 years, I don't foresee another premature abandonment like with the original box. So the first 6 months will be rough (because the japanese are sceptical of non-japanese consoles), if interesting software hasn't appeared that start to convert them and things don't pick up a bit after that, well, then we might start to speculate. If sales are slow in a years' time, then it probably won't get much better no matter what the software.

Unless of course MS pulls some genious move out of its sleeve with a title perfectly tailored to the japanese mentality. It'd probably be something simple and a bit silly and very addictive, perhaps along the lines of DDR, involving some gadget, perhaps the camera add-on.

Oh well. Speculation is fun isn't it?

 

[Platon]

Do you think some publishers may be beginning to move their "A" team to the PS3 (if not already there)?

I doubt any developer has their A team on the xbox 360 except for mistwalker. PS3 is no doubt the safe bet, atleast in Japan, they would be stupid to devote their developers to the xbox 360, no way.

Do you think they may start moving some of ther games to the Revolution focus instead of Xbox 360 as their second preferred machine? Given that the Nintendo DS has been phenomenal in Japan, they might see it as the same for the Revolution.

Depends largerly on two thing, if the Rev will be more successfull than xbox360 and what kind of game it is. If the game is intended for NA and Euro launch as well, xbox 360 should be the better choice.

Do you think MS might start shifting shipments away from Japan that were already planned and move them to Europe and other territories to strengthen their installed base?

Well, if they don't sell there it is just logical to allocate units where they sell, the xbox360 will not sell just because they have them stocked on shelvs collecting dust in Japan.

Could Sony switch focus and do a dual release in US and Japan since the XBox 360's likely lead in Japan will be very small?

That depends mostly how many units they can produce, selling a couple of hundret thousands of units in NA a few months before the real launch would not cut to deep into the next gen market share.

Would MS reduce royalty fees or provide even more incentives to keep the publishers/developers on the Xbox 360 in Japan if they start noticing defectors?

I think that is very possible, if they have not already done it, I think for some big franchises like GTA, that is more than just possible. Weren't there some devs/pubs that complained that some big pubs would be getting better treatment than other smaller ones or something?...

 

[inefficient]

The 360 is likely going to stay with us for 5 years, I don't foresee another premature abandonment like with the original box.

What is your basis for that conclusion?

 

[one]

Do you think some publishers may be beginning to move their "A" team to the PS3 (if not already there)?

Namco! (Frame City Killer, Love Football)

Do you think they may start moving some of ther games to the Revolution focus instead of Xbox 360 as their second preferred machine? Given that the Nintendo DS has been phenomenal in Japan, they might see it as the same for the Revolution.

Maybe in the relatively distant future, but won't happen soon because MS can provide shitload of incentive money regardless of the actual sales of games. (Every Party sold 641 copies in the launch week)

Do you think MS might start shifting shipments away from Japan that were already planned and move them to Europe and other territories to strengthen their installed base?

This just makes sense.

Do they have to keep to their commitments or risk loosing publishers who are currently building games for the system? Some of these games are games that do well both in Japan and US, but those games were probably multi-system anyway.

For games that will sell in the west they don't worry, but for the types of games that sell only in Japan, it's a different story.

Could Sony switch focus and do a dual release in US and Japan since the XBox 360's likely lead in Japan will be very small? They could begin to cut into the Xbox 360's lead earlier and quickly in the US.

Just like NDS they may launch in the US first, but if Sony is not feeling the pressure in the US as guessed by the current US sales of Xbox 360, they can first launch in Japan that is a smaller, easier market. The US launch should follow E3 in May.

Would MS reduce royalty fees or provide even more incentives to keep the publishers/developers on the Xbox 360 in Japan if they start noticing defectors?

They will definitely increase incentive money.

 

[Guden Oden]

What is your basis for that conclusion?

Just MS's wish to like, make money this time 'round. Developing a new console and launching it costs lots of it. Specs have to be drawn up, hardware has to be designed, development environment has to be programmed, programmer support staffed, boxes must be manufactured and stored in warehouses for launch, advertising has to be bought, etc.

Also, repeatedly abandoning their hardware will make MS look undependable to developers. If they start on a big project only to find a year later that the hardware they're developing for will be artificially obsoleted already by the time the game's completed, well... Let's just say that won't make them too happy with MS! I think Redmond's as keen to avoid that situation again as everybody else involved is.

 

[Lysander]

Namco! (Frame City Killer, Love Football)

Namco had A team on Love Football! Impressive!

What games did MS release for x360 in Japan so far?

 

[Serenity Painted Death]

There is no way Namco has a quality team on Love Football...

...That or they are intentionally dogging it.

Next-gen Soul Calibur is going to be absolutely beautiful. SCIII on progressive, on PS2, is amazing as is! Especially some of the backgrounds (Lost Cathedral/Destroyed Cathedral come to mind).

 

[cbarcus]

Ergonomics could be a big issue with 360

I happen to be in Japan at the moment, and I can't imagine the current implementation of the XBox360 selling well here because of noise, size, and heat problems. It is quite common for consumer electronics to be both compact and multifunction. Perhaps the next iteration of the console will address these issues?

 

[Shompola]

Yes yes... the new revision will have an updated manual with better pictures and explanation that proper air ventilation is A and O for preventing heat issues.

 

[Joe DeFuria]

I happen to be in Japan at the moment, and I can't imagine the current implementation of the XBox360 selling well here because of noise, size, and heat problems.

Did the original PS2 implementation sell at all in Japan?

 

[dukmahsik]

360 and MS for that matter will start to do well when japanese devs take them seriously and put the same effort in games they do for top sony and ninty games

 

[speng]

Do you think MS might start shifting shipments away from Japan that were already planned and move them to Europe and other territories to strengthen their installed base?
Do they have to keep to their commitments or risk loosing publishers who are currently building games for the system? Some of these games are games that do well both in Japan and US, but those games were probably multi-system anyway.

So far from this thread most people think it's logical to start diverting shipments from Japan. But reducing your shipments and commitment too quickly will also piss off publishers who are making Japan only games.

I guess they would have to provide more incentives for these publishers to still develop for the console with a much smaller install base.

As a publisher in Japan, if I had a Japanese only game, I'd probably be shifting focus to PS3 and Nintendo Revolution with the Xbox 360 being last for the next gen.

The Revolution has a lot of the qualities looked for in Japan, small compact and stylish with a new innovative way to play games (see: DS).

Speng.

 

[seismologist]

I dont think it will matter. I can't see MS doing any worse than last gen. Support from the west seems to be enough to keep the Xbox alive (even though they lose their power advantage this time).

I'm more worried about what's going to happen to publishers like Mistwalker if the 360 tanks in Japan.

 

[scooby_dooby]

I'm hoping the Mistwalker sales will sell great in the worldwide markets, just like FF, giving the 360 more credibility as in international platform for JRPGs. That would help developers to get on board.

 

[Sis]

So far from this thread most people think it's logical to start diverting shipments from Japan. But reducing your shipments and commitment too quickly will also piss off publishers who are making Japan only games.

For all we know, MS planned for an initial shipment of 150,000 to last till mid-2006. For them to divert shipments, shipments would have to be planned. Do we actually know this to be true? Are there reports of stores being restocked?

 

[Ginko]

Speng, you forgot Capcom's Lost Planet and Resident Evil 5. The former being an exclusive. I don't know how "big" the following games are considered but they might be worth mentioning...

Armored Core 4
Frame City Killer
Cry On
Bullet Witch
Unnamed Namco RPG

...every little bit helps right?

 

[scooby_dooby]

Dead Rising is hitting in March, looks and sounds great.

Lost Planet is from the Devil May Cry creators, so that should have a pretty good team behind it.

 

[Nicked]

Do you think some publishers may be beginning to move their "A" team to the PS3 (if not already there)?

Just looking at the titles released and announced for X360 vs. the titles announced for PS3, there never were A teams on X360 (apart from Team Ninja).

Do you think they may start moving some of ther games to the Revolution focus instead of Xbox 360 as their second preferred machine? Given that the Nintendo DS has been phenomenal in Japan, they might see it as the same for the Revolution.

No. I think its more likely the shift full development to PS3 or develop for X360 with cash incentives from MS.

Do you think MS might start shifting shipments away from Japan that were already planned and move them to Europe and other territories to strengthen their installed base?

No. I assume when they shipped the 150k they thought it likely they would have a sellout on their hands (in a day, a week, who knows). Then they would manage replinishments. But I think with the extreme shortages, when they first launched in Japan they didn't know when they would be able to move more units there. Now they don't have to worry.

Could Sony switch focus and do a dual release in US and Japan since the XBox 360's likely lead in Japan will be very small? They could begin to cut into the Xbox 360's lead earlier and quickly in the US.

They could, but I don't see it happening. Secure your "base", then attack Lest Microsoft launch BD to amazing success whilst Sony are preparing for a NA launch.

Would MS reduce royalty fees or provide even more incentives to keep the publishers/developers on the Xbox 360 in Japan if they start noticing defectors?

I think its likely they've been doing this since the start of last-generation.

Realistically its safe to say MS is never going to be massively successful in Japan this generation unless they secure FF/DQ and/or BD+LO are huge hits.
I think most publishers probably expected it to perform better because analysts and MS themselves had been touting a much more optimistic view of the X360s chances.
Will developers continue development for it? Sure, if their game is suitable for western audiences. I don't see games like Ziria continually being released though, those smaller, Japanese-centric games will probably go to PS3.

 

[Powderkeg]

I think people are making too big a deal out of the launch. The 360 is likely going to stay with us for 5 years, I don't foresee another premature abandonment like with the original box.

The plan is for the 360 to last 6 years. That was part of the point of the early launch. MS can go until 2011 off the 360, maybe even 2012.

Witht the PS3 not launching until 2006, 2011 would put the 360 at a 6 year lifespan and the PS3 at only 5. In 2011 Sony would either have to launch a new console at a shorter than planned lifecycle, or be behind MS yet again. It also gives MS a longer window in which they can earn money off the 360 once it becomes profitable for them before supplying a replacement.