World Cup - are the english gullible?

Gubbi

Veteran
Inspecting odds for all out winner in the 2006 World Cup, Betfair has (decimal odds, sorry if you can't read those):

Brazil: 3.75
England: 9.4
Germany: 9.4
Argentina: 10.5
Italy: 11.5
France: 15

England is runner up favourite for the title, - in front of Argentina, Italy and France.

Betfair is market driven (it's a betting exchange) so players decide who's favourite.

I have to ask: Englishmen, do you have too much money or are you insane? :)

Cheers
 
Gubbi said:
Brazil: 3.75
England: 9.4
Germany: 9.4
Argentina: 10.5
Italy: 11.5
France: 15

Germany has a better chance of winning the World Cup than Italy??? The Italians bested the Germans in the last friendly. Argentinia has worse odds than Germany?

What are the bookies thinking?
 
hupfinsgack said:
Germany has a better chance of winning the World Cup than Italy??? The Italians bested the Germans in the last friendly. Argentinia has worse odds than Germany?

What are the bookies thinking?

I'm italian and to be honest i'm not sure why every time the World Cup is on, they are always among the favourites to win... They've done pretty bad for a loong time in all major tournaments, so i'm not sure why this myth about Italy being really good is still around... Although i haven't followed the team a lot lately i have to admit...
 
hupfinsgack said:
What are the bookies thinking?

Bookies don't decide odds, the market does. Betfair in particular don't even set initial odds, punters play against punters.

Bookies (Ladbrokes etc) have to follow suit (otherwise it's surebetting galore).

Laying (betting against) on England at odds 9.4 is a bleeding bargain! So bookies are actually making a killing on the WC.

Cheers
 
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london-boy said:
I'm italian and to be honest i'm not sure why every time the World Cup is on, they are always among the favourites to win... They've done pretty bad for a loong time in all major tournaments, so i'm not sure why this myth about Italy being really good is still around... Although i haven't followed the team a lot lately i have to admit...

Well, if the current bribe scandal doesn't affect the team to much, I'd rank them pretty high. On a good day they might have a shot at the title.
 
london-boy said:
I'm italian and to be honest i'm not sure why every time the World Cup is on, they are always among the favourites to win...

Whole bunch of class players.

london-boy said:
They've done pretty bad for a loong time in all major tournaments, so i'm not sure why this myth about Italy being really good is still around... Although i haven't followed the team a lot lately i have to admit...

They *do* seem to buckle under pressure (penalty shootouts? :) ), but so do England and England doesn't have anywhere near the player material of France, Italy and Argentina (IMO).

Cheers
 
Mmmmkkayyy...

- what are the odds on Brazil offered by bookies in Brazil?
- what are the odds on Germany offered by bookies in Germany?
- what are the odds on Italy offered by bookies in Italy?
- what are the odds on Trinidad & Tobago offered by bookies in Trinidad & Tobago?
- what are the odds ... (you get the picture I hope?!)
 
nutball said:
Mmmmkkayyy...

- what are the odds on Brazil offered by bookies in Brazil?
- what are the odds on Germany offered by bookies in Germany?
- what are the odds on Italy offered by bookies in Italy?
- what are the odds on Trinidad & Tobago offered by bookies in Trinidad & Tobago?
- what are the odds ... (you get the picture I hope?!)

I'm guessing very similar.

Otherwise people would be surebetting, ie. betting on different outcomes on different bookmakers ensuring a profit. Bookmakers are very concious about this.

And with the volume Betfair sees, it pretty much is the market, at least for football (soccer).

Cheers
 
Well there you go then, the odds clearly represent the views of betting folk all over the world!
 
nutball said:
Well there you go then, the odds clearly represent the views of betting folk all over the world!

Right. But as you indicated, people are more inclined to bet on their own country. That drives down the odds.

England having lower odds than Italy, France and Argentina thus indicates that a whole bunch of englishmen have bet on England to win. Betting on England to win at odds 9.4 is just ... crazy.

Cheers
 
*shrugs* whatever the point you want to make! I guess the English are stupid.

- the French don't give a shit about football
- the Italians are so disorganised they won't get round to betting until the day before
- the Argentines don't have any money

Or perhaps they don't go in for online betting?

Personally if I were going to bet I'd bet on Brazil (because they're the best team), or on Germany because they're the home team (with all the "advantages" that that conveys re. match officials).
 
nutball said:
- the French don't give a shit about football

Hey who said that ??? :p
We love football, but we're not blind : we've seen the latest matches and it wasn't pretty. Moreover 2002 was only 4 year ago, we haven't forgotten yet ;) (0 win, 0 goal... for the previous champion this is a first I think).
 
I get the feeling that a really savvy person could make quite a bit of money on this sort of gambling by watching the market and the games very carefully. I mean, obviously the bookies are the real winners here, but that's no challenge. It would be challenging and interesting to make money through meticulous probability analysis in those sports where the odds are determined by the bets.
 
_xxx_ said:
I'd be truly surprised if Germany makes it past the first round, actually.

Yeah, the Kaiser himself said he'd be happy if they reached the quarter finals. Moreover, yesterday's match against Japan was hardly spectacular. So anything beyond best of 16 is a big surprise.
 
hupfinsgack said:
Yeah, the Kaiser himself said he'd be happy if they reached the quarter finals. Moreover, yesterday's match against Japan was hardly spectacular. So anything beyond best of 16 is a big surprise.

Still. Their group isn't exactly packed with heavy duty football nations: Poland, Costa Rica and Ecuador.

It would be a sensation if Germany didn't qualify for the quarter finals.

Cheers
 
Wow France with a better team than England? hmm. personally I can't see past Brazil, but hey. Our chances were reduced when the remarkable Sven saw fit to choose only 4 strikers, two who are unfit, one who has never played in a first class professional match and one who is best used as a sub..
 
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