TSMC wafer pricing

I'm hoping one of the responders comes through with his own numbers that are even more accurate.

Also, the source report the original tweeter used: https://t.co/eusoK93ob8?amp=1

 

TSMC wafer prices revealed. If this is true then our wallets are going to cry when upgrading in future. Chips are getting way more expensive if they keep being same size.


https://www.tomshardware.com/news/t...aled-300mm-wafer-at-5nm-is-nearly-dollar17000

Using smaller chips with less transistors isn't going to give giant boost either. Scaling isn't what it used to be. As usual the Or in less power or more performance is critical to notice.

https://www.anandtech.com/show/1602...technology-details-full-node-scaling-for-2h22

 

The figures are nonsense, and are made up by an analyst paper using dubious investment costs and formulas: https://cset.georgetown.edu/wp-content/uploads/AI-Chips—What-They-Are-and-Why-They-Matter.pdf

We know for a fact the costs (from actual cost data) are far below those figures.

 

Can you share the wafer cost? I don't believe cost is common knowledge.

 

I don't have permission / we'll have to clear it first.

 

That table also has a huge post that is "other costs and mark up". Hmm. Plus depreciation assumptions, plus...
It gets even worse once assumptions regarding development costs and volume gets mixed into the final single figure of merit.
Total cost/wafer does go up with lithographic advances obviously, making volume an ever more important factor in the total assesment, but trying to boil it all down to some immutable single figure for a node seems ... difficult.

 

Unless TSMC have changed their business model, these prices do not include the cost of the wafers - that would be a separate cost. These are TSMC's foundry costs. The wafer choice that customers specify (and pay for) must meet TSMC's requirements but if you want to use cheap wafers at the risk of lower yields, that's up to the customer. I would image for consoles, the choice of wafer is likely something determined between AMD and TSMC based on trial runs. This is the expertise that Microsoft and Sony are paying for.

Equally, TSMC may have got into the wafer business but I do not believe this to be the case. The UK exports a metric ton of wafers to TSMC for various applications.

 

Iterating on a previous comment, if you get permission to state (processed but not including mask cost) wafer costs, it would be great. Figures circulating on the web is typically ”analyst estimates” which vary both in quality and in underlying assumptions. Once you plow through enough of those, it may yield a decent feel for where costs lie. Or not, if the numbers all rely on some dubious or simply old data point.

Having a snapshot of actual factual costs would be nice.

(I assume that the reason nobody puts these numbers out there is that they are subject to negotiation. (And depend on volumes, spread over time, date of agreement et cetera.))

 

Ian Cutress on chip/wafer prices for tsmc 7nm

 

Yeah, that sort of thing shows why it's so hard for Samsung to catch up and why so many foundries went bust. The R&D still far outsrips wafer costs even for modern day stuff, even at TSMC.

Of course if Samsung goes bust then TSMC can crank up the pain, but are you really the one that wants to risk a competitive advantage just so everyone benefits? But then, as stated with GPUs, competition is starting to squeeze that profit margin, and that's before Intel is hitting later this year. One can see why AMD is considering using Samsung for RDNA4, and Nvidia already is.

 

It's not all roses for TSMC, however. The water situation in Taiwan isn't very good at the moment due to no Typhoons hitting landfall in Taiwan in 2020 (Taiwan's Drought Pits Chip Makers Against Farmers - The New York Times (nytimes.com) ).

This means that many reservoirs in Taiwan (especially those near technology centers) are at less than 50% capacity. If there's not a lot of rainfall from Typhoons this year, it may not just be farmers that have to ration water. If TSMC has to ration water as well this year, they'll either have to ship in water (expensive) or reduce production capacity. Either way would see prices from TSMC increase.

And then there's the increasing specter of invasion from mainland China which would massively disrupt worldwide supply. Considering current anti-China sentiment in Taiwan, if an invasion were to happen, it would not surprise me if TSMC chose to use demolitions on their FABs rather than allow them to fall into Chinese hands. My relatives in Taiwan try not to think about it too much, but it's increasingly hard to ignore over there.

Regards,
SB

 

Wasn't it reported already a while back that TSMC has ordered crapload of tankers to combat the water shortages?

 

They've contracted for water capacity transport by tankers if needed but AFAIK, they aren't using it. They just have the contracted capacity that they can exercise in the future if needed. IIRC, they've also got contracts in place to be able to FLY in water (expensive as hell) if absolutely needed.

Regards,
SB

 

Easy to see why they're putting foundries elsewhere, though I wonder if "we have weeks long blackouts" Texas will really get the nod from anyone.

 

Texas situation was about once in a 120year occurence. I'm assuming you are writing about the last outage+snow+cold. There are solutions. Things like this: https://www.theverge.com/2021/3/31/22360839/apple-tesla-megapack-energy-storage-grid-solar-batteries

Some other places have had floods(thailand, hdd factories), earthquakes etc. There are almost always some risk involved that requires planning around.

 

Texas knew that this was a likely outcome given the choices they made. They chose not to address it. You cannot blame some freak event as unforseen when people foresee exactly that and tell you to fix it. Regulated utilities for all their inefficiencies tend to keep the power on. They have more redundancy and that is exactly why we got deregulation. They were not considered efficient.

 

Insiders say TSMC has decided to raise prices by 10-20 per cent - Components - News - HEXUS.net
August 25, 2021