The NEXT LAST R600 Rumours & Speculation Thread

The problem with the assumption that ATI is selling massive quantities of R6xx and RV6xx chips to the OEMs is that AMD just warned bigtime on their Q1 numbers. They forcasted $1.65 Billion (midpoint of guidance) and have recently lowered it to $1.23 Billion. I have a very hard time believing that their was a bunch of R600 products delivered and sold to OEM's in Q1 (Jan - Mar) given those numbers. If they waited till April 1st to begin delivery than all that OEM chatter is possible to be sure.

I still don't see why some are convinced that there is an OEM version of 2900 XTX floating out there that will be used shortly. Why would AMD release a 2900 XTX when the 2900 XT appears to be slightly better, more feature rich and cheaper than 8800 GTX? It makes zero sense to beat the best part on the market with another...especially when it is yours already.

Perhaps if they were binning chips very conservatively initially, then there may be lots of chips that now have the potential to be clocked much higher than the reference 2900 XT. AMD can either hold these chips in reserve for an 80 nm R600 XTX (GDDR3 or GDDR4) in case Nvidia releases something that beats 2900 XT BEFORE R650 is done, continue releasing 2900 XT with increasingly better overclocking headroom or simply allow certain AIB partners to release 2900 XT OC. These are all good options for AMD because they are quick.

Concerning the $399 price I think it was brilliant and caused by the harsh reality of the situation they have put themselves in. They are late, losing market share and have lost tons of mindshare. By moving the price down to $399 they have prevented Nvidia from pushing their one lever they were counting on using against a marginally better 2900 XT...pricing pressure. Nvidia cannot and will not move the 8800 XTX to less than $399 and maintain their gross margins. I do expect them to match AMD's price to keep sales from falling off a cliff. AMD may have finally found the elusive high ground again in terms of having the "best" especially considering the Vista driver situation.

Anyone who thinks the $399 price point is crazy needs to remember their first thought upon hearing that. Mine was "damn I might just upgrade my rig to Vista this year afterall".

 

Yeah it seems to be a good move. And I'm sufficiently convinced by geo's point about 512MB of cheap 800Mhz GDDR3 that I don't think margins will be all that bad. Still, an 8-layer PCB and some heavy cooling can't come cheap.

Nvidia would have to be pretty complacent not to have 80nm high-end parts in the pipeline by now. With the current level of 80nm demand any wafer price premium over the 90nm process should be fading quickly. Don't see why they wouldn't have been aiming for a 80nm high-end summer refresh regardless of what AMD did with R600.

 

Maybe it's the XL version? /me ducks

US

 

More numbers, but from vr-zone.

http://www.vr-zone.com/?i=4898

Looks like ATI is getting their drivers in real good shape for the launch.

750/820 MHz?

 

I think the fact that Dell's fastest gaming rigs have XP instead of Vista tells enough of what they think of nVidias drivers at the moment.
I don't doubt for a single second that the card in it will change to R600 as long as it's as fast as GTX, it doesn't even have to be faster, if the drivers are in as good condition as they should be.

 

XT getting 12000 at 750 and 820? Wow .. now that is a suprise.

I still think the XT will be 800 core though, memory not too sure.

US

 

750MHz core...
Thats more than a 8600 GTS, which is a much less complex little beast on a similar 80nm half node.

This R600 XT "thingy" might just make it to my own main rig soon...

 

Comparing that to Xenos which already has 64 vec5 shaders with one quad disabled for redundancy and 16 TMU's (right?) do those specs look likely for R600 considering the years ATi has been working on this design. Unless they are all massively beefed up... XTreme ALUs

 

I'm not sure what point you are trying to make. That's pure hearsay. The fact of the matter is that you have no idea. Big deal, neither do most of us until the R600 launches. Give it up already.

 

A $400 price point sounds pretty good. Sure, their margins will be lower, but the volume will be much bigger. That's only high middle end. The top cards only account for about 1% or less of that volume. As long as they have good long-term contracts with the foundries who make the actual chips, and have an equally good deal on the memory, it makes a lot of sense. And them much more money than selling it at $600.

And it also allows them to bring out a new and faster card barely a few months later.

 

320 MADs per clock is 64 x 5.

How special functions are handled is, naturally, a mystery.

Jawed

 

Could have something to do with the state of Vista also. Which btw is, imo, rather crappy atm.

 

A card slightly faster than GTX and costs less than a 640MB GTS? (And not forgetting about the IQ and other things unknown). For the first time in years I have entertained the idea of spending that much on a GPU ..

 

You didn't consider voltages. Remember the GTS got up to 1Ghz with a voltage bump But all around the 80nm process looks juicy.

 

Ah, so still a quite small part. I would have guessed it to be in the low teens. Which it might be for a while, when the R600 enters the shops. That's still about ten times as much. So it'll make them a good buck.

 

That depends on how hot it already is...

 

So it seems that everyone has jumped on board with the thinking that the XTX isn't coming out soon?
I've been lurking here since september or october waiting for the right time to upgrade, and with my computer having issues with stalker and especially supreme commander, I'm just about sick of waiting. I've been sitting on the money since last summer! I want to get the best in May so I can wait a while before upgrading again. If it's not ready now, any idea when?? They lie so hard if they say it's ready, but they're delaying to launch the whole family, and then the star doesnt even show up!

 

..and now, they have a completely new architecture as opposed to the last few gens which were basically small increments. It's quite a bit more work to do to get that thoroughly tested and bug-free.

As for OEM's, I'm quite sure that they're not in doubt about nV's drivers becoming ok soon given the support they got in the past.

 

I was in fact talking about not only the RV610 and RV630 but also the R600 specifically. OEMs have had their hands on R600 since the beginning of the year. OEMs according to this rumor have been ordering and receiving R600 since at least Feb./March if not earlier.

In particular OEMs have been ordering and receiving HD 2900 XTX. Notice XTX not "just" the XT that will launch first.

Which means AMD is CURRENTLY and has been for a few months making money on R600.

In other words, if the rumors are true that "millions" of R600s are being sold to OEMs that would mean that AMD has lost virtually no money by delaying R600 by approximately 2 (that is TWO) months from Feb./March timeframe to April/May timeframe.

Again, please note the big IF the rumor is true that they are selling "millions" of R600s to OEMs. AMD is selling them to OEMs for a few months now, there is no doubt about that. It's the quantity that is in doubt.

Regards,
SB