The combination of conflicting propaganda/psyops communications from
both sides, other independent news agencies in the region fucking with
both of us (IRNA, for example), other independent news agencies in the
region catering to their downtrodden masses, incompetent journalists,
ordinarily competent journalists desperate to scoop everyone else,
reporters reporting on other reports and reporters, initial guesses
being mistaken and broadcast as fact, second guesses being taken as
evidence of deliberate manipulation, and just plain fuckups, is going
to be just plain impenetrable.
Difficult as this may be for the historian in you, remember not to
regard these articles and broadcasts as historical facts. They ain't.