Successor to Wii U launch date?
- Thread starter Brimstone
- Start date
They did? When? Linkage, please...
The wuu is a very odd hybrid. It aims squarely at current-gen performance (and largely misses), has a very low power draw, even though that is not a significant sales advantage while simultaneously not being particularly cheap (also not an advantage), and mishmashes a decidedly subpar tablet into the controller. Add to this mix, the pro controller and the wii wand + nunchuck and you got an entire menagerie of increasingly complex input methods. A far cry from the original wii rallying cry of simplifying gaming... I can definitely see how this is not helping nintendo and their sales. Also, lack of software. As in...where the F is it?
Anyways, despite whatever difficulties wuu may face, I really don't see a successor any sooner than 2017. Probably even further off; these things take time to cook up, and if you're too much out of synch with your competitors it will only hurt you. Launching inbetween generation shifts will bring two major risks:
A - 3rd party developers may choose to not properly utilize whatever additional hardware performance you may have compared to the other major consoles. This due to factors like differences in market share, and additional development costs.
B - when your competitors' new generation launches, it will leave you in the dust.
...So timing your hardware to be out of synch with the other manufacturers is a largely lose-lose proposition, unless you somehow magically manage to grab a ludicrously high market share, and can steer trends through sheer might of your influence....which is fantasy for nintendo of today.
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D
Deleted member 13524
Guest
5 years after the Wii U, so 2017.
I think in the end the Wii U + 3DS will be like GameCube + Gameboy Advance.
Poor home console sales will give very little profit (but profit nonetheless, as ensured by the ultra-cheap hardware) and a great loss of market/mindshare, and the company's profits will be largely driven by the handheld and its 1st party titles.
Which is a complete fail for the company's alleged efforts for this generation, which was to bring back the 3rd parties.
If the company insists on letting out cheap and piss-poor hardware again in 2017 (for example, launching a home console that fails to largely surpass or at least get even with the Durango and Orbis' performance targets), then I think it'll be Nintendo's last home console and they'll just become a Sega...
..which isn't that bad because I would really like to play a split-screen Mario Kart title in a mid/high-end HTPC, a Mario Galaxy in a smartphone or a Zelda in a tablet.
Plus, it's a shame that all those talented people making games over at Nintendo keep being restricted by the company's horrible hardware choices.
If the top management actually becomes smart and aware of the general audience's and 3rd parties' interests, they could possibly turn the Wii U into a handheld that plays downloadable Wii U titles, emulated 3DS titles and whatever-the-new-handheld-is-called titles.
But I don't think they will ever have that kind of vision.
I think in the end the Wii U + 3DS will be like GameCube + Gameboy Advance.
Poor home console sales will give very little profit (but profit nonetheless, as ensured by the ultra-cheap hardware) and a great loss of market/mindshare, and the company's profits will be largely driven by the handheld and its 1st party titles.
Which is a complete fail for the company's alleged efforts for this generation, which was to bring back the 3rd parties.
If the company insists on letting out cheap and piss-poor hardware again in 2017 (for example, launching a home console that fails to largely surpass or at least get even with the Durango and Orbis' performance targets), then I think it'll be Nintendo's last home console and they'll just become a Sega...
..which isn't that bad because I would really like to play a split-screen Mario Kart title in a mid/high-end HTPC, a Mario Galaxy in a smartphone or a Zelda in a tablet.
Plus, it's a shame that all those talented people making games over at Nintendo keep being restricted by the company's horrible hardware choices.
If the top management actually becomes smart and aware of the general audience's and 3rd parties' interests, they could possibly turn the Wii U into a handheld that plays downloadable Wii U titles, emulated 3DS titles and whatever-the-new-handheld-is-called titles.
But I don't think they will ever have that kind of vision.
Even Gamecube was supported more by 3rd parties at the start. It was only losing support few years out but still only under 30 million sales. Wii U 1st party stuff will probably get over that though
The dedicated highend gaming hardware market is hardly going to get better after Orbis/Durango launches. The dedicated handheld gaming market is even more doomed and generating major profits with cheap hardware is thing of the past with Amazons and Googles around
I see the board as too stubborn to react and that might run them into irrelevancy. I could see them partering with SCE in traditional consoles and clouds just based on Japanese culture
This businessplan is so doomed.. like going against IOS/Android when they are strongest with a new non-mature platform.
The dedicated highend gaming hardware market is hardly going to get better after Orbis/Durango launches. The dedicated handheld gaming market is even more doomed and generating major profits with cheap hardware is thing of the past with Amazons and Googles around
I see the board as too stubborn to react and that might run them into irrelevancy. I could see them partering with SCE in traditional consoles and clouds just based on Japanese culture
This businessplan is so doomed.. like going against IOS/Android when they are strongest with a new non-mature platform.
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Cool-Aid
Oh come on now, let's not drink the cool-aid. Nintendo couldn't do that with the WiiU and current-gen after having 7 years to work towards it. Now suddenly they're going to be able to do that in 3 years?
Oh come on now, let's not drink the cool-aid. Nintendo couldn't do that with the WiiU and current-gen after having 7 years to work towards it. Now suddenly they're going to be able to do that in 3 years?
i dont know, but wii u is in big trouble.
I keep wanting to say it's dying faster than even I expected, but that's not really true LOL. I did expect this. I made lots of posts about how fast it would die.
I guess what even I, #1 Wii u downgrader from day 1, didn't expect was for it to be only PS360 level in power. I expected a little more.
But, if Wii U is struggling now, literally the 4-5 months I knew it would have in the sun before next gen hype hits in force, wow, I cant imagine how bad the future looks. I mean, I figured there would be that, November through April or so window when Wii U would command, at least message board fanboy mindshare. Even that evaporated, again thanks to the power being more disappointing than anybody imagined.
I keep wanting to say it's dying faster than even I expected, but that's not really true LOL. I did expect this. I made lots of posts about how fast it would die.
I guess what even I, #1 Wii u downgrader from day 1, didn't expect was for it to be only PS360 level in power. I expected a little more.
But, if Wii U is struggling now, literally the 4-5 months I knew it would have in the sun before next gen hype hits in force, wow, I cant imagine how bad the future looks. I mean, I figured there would be that, November through April or so window when Wii U would command, at least message board fanboy mindshare. Even that evaporated, again thanks to the power being more disappointing than anybody imagined.
Nintendo has to be decisive. Wii U is flying like a lead balloon. They can price cut I guess.
GPU with enough eDRAM and shaders to run Xbox Next and PS4 3rd party games at 1080p @ 60hz with 4x
aa automagically.
People have gotten fatigued by Nintendo low spec hardware.
GPU with enough eDRAM and shaders to run Xbox Next and PS4 3rd party games at 1080p @ 60hz with 4x
aa automagically.
People have gotten fatigued by Nintendo low spec hardware.
I'll say this ... IF Nintendo comes out with a new console, it will be by 2016.
This all depends on how desperate Nintendo is to make WiiU a success (price-cutting and heavy marketing). If they fall too hard on their sword, their shareholders may be unwilling to chance another console failure.
If this were to take place, it could be the best thing to ever happen to Nintendo. Their strength is/was in software, not hardware.
This all depends on how desperate Nintendo is to make WiiU a success (price-cutting and heavy marketing). If they fall too hard on their sword, their shareholders may be unwilling to chance another console failure.
If this were to take place, it could be the best thing to ever happen to Nintendo. Their strength is/was in software, not hardware.
trainplane
Newcomer
Nintendo bet on the second screen being a game changer just like motion controls were for the Wii but it didn't pan out. Motion controls in 2005 was like magic, but not a touch screen in 2012. The problem now is that they are stuck with the expensive controller in their BOM. Ironically, had they released a normal console without the screen they probably could have a machine similar to Xbox 3 for the same BOM.
Nintendo could call a do over and release a non-touchscreen machine as early as 2015 and easily meet Xbox 3/PS4 class specs without a high BOM but the problem is not throwing current users under the bus. If they want compatibility, they would still need to include the touch screen.
Nintendo could call a do over and release a non-touchscreen machine as early as 2015 and easily meet Xbox 3/PS4 class specs without a high BOM but the problem is not throwing current users under the bus. If they want compatibility, they would still need to include the touch screen.
I think you are seriously over estimating what they'd save by ditching the wuublet. The wii:u is a 40W console, it barely manages to match/exceed 6 year old hardware. Going with a traditional controller in place of the wuublet wouldn't magically triple its performance.
trainplane
Newcomer
The rumored BOM of the controller is $50 US, a big chunk of their rumored $180 BOM. If they had used a normal controller they would have maybe $45 more for silicon and housing budget. How much more would it have added to increase to a ~.9-1 TFLOPS class machine (using TFLOPS as a rough computing metric) with 4 GB of DDR3 in 2012 compared to what they put out? Maybe $70-80 extra? Not as powerful as Xbox 3 but at least ~4X-5X current consoles and can do 3rd party games. And if you look at BOM for screens, they don't decrease much because they are material costs whereas chips and wattage can be shrunk.
But none of that can change now. They are where they put themselves. The problem they have for any near-term upgrade is that the controller becomes a BOM boat anchor that they need to either support or just ditch BC.
I don't see how that could possibly be possible. There's nothing advanced at all in that tablet, tiny battery, no advanced SoC microprocessor as found in actual tablets, and it's made 100% out of plastic.
trainplane
Newcomer
In addition to the articles--they say $5 for NFC chip, $6 for the tablet camera--we also have Nintendo saying they are selling the Wii U for a loss. Now with their low power silicon, why would a $300 machine be at a loss?
http://techland.time.com/2012/04/09/how-much-for-that-wii-u-in-the-window/
My comparisons to Xbox 3 also assumes they will be at $400 retail with HDD. If base Xbox 3 is $500, then no, a 2012 $300 Wii U can't compete technically. But it can still be much better than Xbox 360 w/o the tablet controller.
the screen alone is likely a substantial cost.
just take apart a 360 or ps3 controller, as i have a few times to fix. they seem like they would be fairly expensive. they are very complex packed in a small area inside, right down to little rumble motors and weights, and must be of extremely high quality to stand up to the beating they take.
i'm sure ps360 controllers are still very profitable at 50 a pop mind you. i just think you pretty much have to multiply bom by two or three to get a realistic cost with profit type of number.
there's all the chips sure, but i think just the sheer amount of plastic and metal in a console must be worth $20-$40. i used to marvel a bit at the included cables in a 360, they're very thick and high quality. for cables i always figured they must be fairly expensive in themselves. there is a lot of sheer plastic there.
for your tablet analogy, there isnt a decent tablet i know of for less than 199 (we're not counting cheap chinese junk here, nintendo must have a higher standard). and sure there are many things in a tablet not in the wublet and it's surely more expensive overall by far, but there are things in the wuublet like buttons and sticks assemblies that arent in a tablet too.
...Proportionally speaking I'm sure you're right; in absolute terms I don't think so. LCD glass isn't very expensive today, you can buy 50" HDTVs today for a few hundred $s for chrissakes...
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