*spinning* Next-Gen Discs

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Gamestop says that next year we will see only one new console, so probably this fall wiiu, then xbox, and in 2014 ps4

Way more likely PS4 2013 and XB720 2014 imho. Sony has to worry about Japan and losing market share to Nintendo there. Maybe Sony won't release in North America and Europe in 2013, but Japan seems likely to me. I don't think it is just about Sony and Nintendo, Microsoft needs to buffer against any Apple move and 2014 would help with that.

Just my opinion here, but If Microsoft is going with Nvidia Project Denver (64bit ARM CPU), 8 Gigabytes of Hybrid Memory Cube ram, and Holographic disc, then 2014 seems like the sweetspot. Also Unreal Engine 4 will be primed to melt eyeballs. Then in 2015 launch Kinect 2.0 with improved cameras and such and have a Halo Game ready.
 
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Holographic disc, lol wut? These things don't even exist as a finished mass-producable product and you're speculating they'll go into a mass market console inside of two years? ;) What's wrong with regular bluray discs? It's not as if terribly many games are going to crack the 50GB ceiling even next gen. ...And if it was, just adding two more layers is not terribly complicated, methods for doing that have existed for years and don't need any additional hardware.
 
Holographic disc, lol wut? These things don't even exist as a finished mass-producable product and you're speculating they'll go into a mass market console inside of two years? ;) What's wrong with regular bluray discs? It's not as if terribly many games are going to crack the 50GB ceiling even next gen. ...And if it was, just adding two more layers is not terribly complicated, methods for doing that have existed for years and don't need any additional hardware.

When John Carmack tests Occulus Rift he uses a version of RAGE uncompressed and he states he is impressed by the detail the artists put in. The larger the storage space of the disc the less aggressive data compression needs to be. RAGE is a terabyte of data, so in a few years I won't be suprised if game developers start to close in 5 terabytes of data for a game. What is the freaking point of nice high resolution texture data if it ends losing fidelity from massive compression?

Other advantages are higher data rate for better load times. Eight (8) gigs of ram would require improved speed that the GE Holographic disc should produce. Improved security with holographic encryption. Not having to use Sony based replicators for disc production.
 
wait, why a disc? I want my magical holographic sugar cube with one petabyte, and 10GB/s transfer will do (I would have said one terabyte, but it's such long overdue, that number is not impressive anymore)
 
When John Carmack tests Occulus Rift he uses a version of RAGE uncompressed and he states he is impressed by the detail the artists put in. The larger the storage space of the disc the less aggressive data compression needs to be. RAGE is a terabyte of data, so in a few years I won't be suprised if game developers start to close in 5 terabytes of data for a game. What is the freaking point of nice high resolution texture data if it ends losing fidelity from massive compression?

Other advantages are higher data rate for better load times. Eight (8) gigs of ram would require improved speed that the GE Holographic disc should produce. Improved security with holographic encryption. Not having to use Sony based replicators for disc production.
The benefits of holographic disks are immaterial if the technology isn't available for consumer devices. Google GE's holographic disk and you get nothing newer than a year old announcement they were going to release a product. Where is it?
 
The benefits of holographic disks are immaterial if the technology isn't available for consumer devices. Google GE's holographic disk and you get nothing newer than a year old announcement they were going to release a product. Where is it?

To launch a console with a new optical format you'd have to be able to manufacture of the order of 5M disks in a 3-4 week window, and the numbers go up from there.
Microsoft had issues when XBox 1 launched getting enough DVD capacity.
You'd need something else to be driving demand before it was in anyway viable.
 
The benefits of holographic disks are immaterial if the technology isn't available for consumer devices. Google GE's holographic disk and you get nothing newer than a year old announcement they were going to release a product. Where is it?

one year away for the past ten years. it's been an long time, with the current most ready actor regularly changing. I remember when it was about a 100GB disc and it sounded outlandish.

one big question is, can a holo disc be "pressed"?
if you need a tedious recording phase, taking maybe three hours, that's a hard proposition next to stamping a piece of plastic. (writing 500GB at 50MB/s does take about three hours)

it seems great for special needs, i.e. archival. but you have tapes for that (maybe not that great but proven and widespread)
want to carry an ungodly amount of data? you have USB hard drives (you would need to carry holo drive + discs for the same effect)

there's a big adoption problem. actually, bluray wasn't universally adapted either, it's only for a high end subset of movies discs and some game consoles.
 
The benefits of holographic disks are immaterial if the technology isn't available for consumer devices. Google GE's holographic disk and you get nothing newer than a year old announcement they were going to release a product. Where is it?

Split things into two parts, the optical drive and disc replication.

Optical Drive: Should be fairly easy to mass produce because it uses optics similar to a standard Blu-Ray. GE probably won't make much from this domain if anything at all. So in the area there shouldn't be much of a problem.

Disc Replication: I haven't got a clue and GE probably doesn't won't give away much. In this area GE would be in direct competion with Sony. If Microsoft goes with holographic disc, this is where GE would have to deliever as ERP stated. Cheap mass production of GE Holographic ROMs...maybe it can't be done...I don't know.


Another issue could be the expected new Blu-Ray format for 4k content. Maybe GE and other companies desire to keep quiet for whatever reason. Last time around with Blu-Ray and HD-DVD it turned into a total circus.
 
Split things into two parts, the optical drive and disc replication.

Optical Drive: Should be fairly easy to mass produce because it uses optics similar to a standard Blu-Ray. GE probably won't make much from this domain if anything at all. So in the area there shouldn't be much of a problem.

Disc Replication: I haven't got a clue and GE probably doesn't won't give away much. In this area GE would be in direct competion with Sony. If Microsoft goes with holographic disc, this is where GE would have to deliever as ERP stated. Cheap mass production of GE Holographic ROMs...maybe it can't be done...I don't know.

Another issue could be the expected new Blu-Ray format for 4k content. Maybe GE and other companies desire to keep quiet for whatever reason. Last time around with Blu-Ray and HD-DVD it turned into a total circus.
It's about volume, they can't have it without major industry backing, which they don't have. The circus you speak of is created by warmongers. Nobody wants a format war except you-know-who. The way I see it, I think GE is fishing for a piece of the pie (getting included in the bluray format evolution), or looking for companies with an interest in creating a dubious format war. Either way it's not looking good, rumors has it that the warmongers have chosen bluray, and they were the only ones around with enough money and business interests to start a war. If their technology can be placed profitably into the bluray roadmap, that's great, it's just that it's promised next year for the last 48 years (yep, it's not a typo). It's the running gag of the optical storage industry.

They're not in competition with Sony, they're in competition with the whole bluray forum, which is almost every company, but considering they use almost all of bluray technologies they'll have to pay everybody anyway for the patent pool, it's just simpler to be included in the forum... if they can deliver they'll want it. It's an illusion that it's a different technology, it's a blu ray drive, with all the blu ray technologies, and a modified read head. It's only incremental to bluray. But they didn't deliver yet.

There's no 10x advantage, it's smoke and mirrors. Bluray already demoed a 1TB prototype in 2010, readable by current drives with a modified firmware, and the most recent Holo prototype is 500GB.

I don't know what they decided for 4K but it'll be out by the end of the year or early next year, it's a short time for new tech and new production lines. If 50GB on a 54Mb/s mux is enough for 3D-1080p, 128GB is more than enough for 4K even with h264, and would be superb in h265. The mux bandwidth will be fine and needs less than twice the bitrate in both cases. Current bluray specs is 128GB on 4 layers, 100GB on 3 layers. There's zero risk, no new technology, no added cost. It's the same drive, same disk stamping and gluing. New ASIC for 4k output and h264/h265 decoding and you're set. There won't be a format war since 4k will remain a niche anyway for a long time, there's no profit here that can justify a new contender... unless the goal is to kill both formats of course... rings any bell?

Here's the IEEE conference about optical media technology 2012, it's pure gold, everything we want to know is there, and the source is the highest authority you could ever dream of.
http://www.slideshare.net/rgzech/the...ch-slide-share

Low cost, low risk, near term evolution of Bluray format on slide #15: NFR+MLD+MLR = 500GB per layer
With a 16 layer it would be 8TB. Linear data density 5 times higher, data rate is 5 times higher.
2.5 bits multi-level is already possible with 6 layers, with only a little more electronics and firmware.
i-MLSE already gives us another 33% increase of both data rate and density (from BDXL).
 
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A lot of the future things proposed for Blu-Ray would have an equally dramtic impact for GE Holodisc. Near-Field Recording by Phillips as far as I know could be applied to GE Holodisc and more powerful lasers can also be used. The goal of GE seems to be to re-use as much of the established Blu-Ray structure as possible for the physical drive, and then harness the volume of a disc.

GEs approach seems rational to me. They aren't saying throw out everything...just go with a different physical disc but keep most of the other infastructure.


Let me put it this way...if GE is serious about Holographic Disc they want to be in a high profile consummer device...what is a big high profile device that could actually benefit from the speed and high data storage? Seems to me GE would be desperate to get into a future X-Box and strive for a trickle down effect into the PC market.

The potential advantages I see for Microsoft...

Higher fidelity graphics (mega-texutring/John Carmack). Lower levels of compression. Compelling reason to buy the Microsoft version of a multiformat game, so more royalties.

Ability to put more RAM in the console and not be impacted by longer loading times because the data rates will be higher. So higher fidelity games.

A bit more secure format.

Anti-piracy because of data overload. Lets say someone hacks a game, it is going to suck for many to have to download a terabyte of data.

Not paying royalties to the Blu-Ray group.

It also may make it easier to justify having the base SKU not include a hard drive. So several years after launch Microsoft can have a low cost SKU without worrying about eating the cost of a hard disk drive.
 
So, all the advantages Blu-ray was supposed to confer this generation that never panned out? Yeah, I'm sure Microsoft is at the front of the line for that.
 
If their technology can be placed profitably into the bluray roadmap, that's great, it's just that it's promised next year for the last 48 years (yep, it's not a typo). It's the running gag of the optical storage industry.
...
Here's the IEEE conference about optical media technology 2012, it's pure gold, everything we want to know is there, and the source is the highest authority you could ever dream of.

this is a little bit harsh, it's like saying we've been promised a great electric car next year for the last 120 years (not a typo either, and add decades for people toying with the idea before)

well perhaps not a great example as they actually ruled the market for a short time.
posting these slides are a good reminder. assuming this NFR thing is mass produceable quickly.
the slides contain information that crazy multilayer (i.e. 8, 16 layers) bring media and replication costs, and I don't know about reliability. when you go further there's talk about UV, far UV, X-ray and even "Atomics". that's increasingly "fairy stuff" if you consider holo to be so.

to slide 37 : UV brings cost and complexity ("may not be proportional to capacity increase") and needs a "killer application". so I'm skeptical of 1TB classical discs.

100+GB, that's credible for sure (yet you need those NFR and MLR if you want bandwith to get faster)
 
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wait, why a disc? I want my magical holographic sugar cube with one petabyte, and 10GB/s transfer will do (I would have said one terabyte, but it's such long overdue, that number is not impressive anymore)
I had all my data backed up on one of those but suffered a disaster when I was desperate for some Earl Grey...
 
When John Carmack tests Occulus Rift he uses a version of RAGE uncompressed and he states he is impressed by the detail the artists put in. The larger the storage space of the disc the less aggressive data compression needs to be. RAGE is a terabyte of data, so in a few years I won't be suprised if game developers start to close in 5 terabytes of data for a game. What is the freaking point of nice high resolution texture data if it ends losing fidelity from massive compression?

Other advantages are higher data rate for better load times. Eight (8) gigs of ram would require improved speed that the GE Holographic disc should produce. Improved security with holographic encryption. Not having to use Sony based replicators for disc production.

RAGE is an outlier and highly, highly unusual. No way will we be seeing 5 TB sized games before compression next gen. Maybe the gen after that, but I doubt we will want to see 120 dollar/euro/pound/etc games. :p
 
RAGE is an outlier and highly, highly unusual. No way will we be seeing 5 TB sized games before compression next gen. Maybe the gen after that, but I doubt we will want to see 120 dollar/euro/pound/etc games. :p

Well Square/Enix mentioned that with the Luminous Engine that a single Blu-Ray might not be enough.

"For the backgrounds used in this - the mountains, the houses - we are using exactly the same assets as are used in the Visual Works CG version," Square Enix's chief technical officer Yoshihisa Hashimoto told RPGsite. CGI assets in-game? Cross that one off our list of childhood daydreams.

"Of course, it's too massive of a data to use in a game as-is, but I think the look and feel will probably remain," he went on. "If we had time, we could've compressed the data even smaller. We didn't have time to do that, so we just used the same master data - but it can definitely be reduced."

Asked by the site whether fitting everything into currently used disc formats was a struggle, Hashimoto confessed: "Yeah, that could be a challenge. There's a possibility that just one Blu-ray may not be sufficient."

http://www.oxm.co.uk/43256/square-enixs-next-gen-tech-may-be-too-big-for-blu-ray/


AAA games are only growing in data size and I don't see that trend stopping anytime soon. Doom 4 will probably have a large data footprint, and I won't be surpised if next-gen Skyrim and Fallout are massive. Already you've got Square/Enix talking about lots of data.
 
They grow as much because they can as for any good reason.
If you looks at the so called 50GB PS3 games, the bulk of the space is eaten up by FMV and dialog is 20 different languages.
Uncharted for example has a complete duplicate of all of it's pre rendered cut scenes for 3D support.
Force developers to use a 20GB disc they'll certainly fill it, give them a 200GB disc they'll fill that with the same game.
 
RAGE is an outlier and highly, highly unusual. No way will we be seeing 5 TB sized games before compression next gen. Maybe the gen after that, but I doubt we will want to see 120 dollar/euro/pound/etc games. :p
That's one hell of a good point, I.S.T. o___o; Maybe after using that ridiculous amount of space, gamers will start to believe developers who usually talk big.

Now that I think of it I recall Molyneaux words about his games and how he builds up expectations of him.
 
They grow as much because they can as for any good reason.
If you looks at the so called 50GB PS3 games, the bulk of the space is eaten up by FMV and dialog is 20 different languages.
Uncharted for example has a complete duplicate of all of it's pre rendered cut scenes for 3D support.
Force developers to use a 20GB disc they'll certainly fill it, give them a 200GB disc they'll fill that with the same game.

Sure, but that game still has 12GB worth of just textures. And there are a lot of even first party 360 games that use more than one DVD ...
 
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