Sony PS6, Microsoft neXtBox - 10th gen console speculation [2020]

Maybe, maybe not.

 

I think they're in a very good place to do so. Despite all the dodgy cherry picking that Intel have done to try and show they still have the lead, they don't, it's pretty obvious that the M1 has started from a leading position, it's not tied down by the need to support monolithic architecture, is aiming at a cleaner code base for apps, not the bloatware that is the PC ecosystem. They have every advantage and can only get better.

In that regard, just launching the M1 has shaken up the market.

 

Maybe. Apple taking over Microsoft, Sony, Intel, AMD. Its possible, but it will be awhile.

 

Apple's ARM CPUs already have much better performance per watt than anything from AMD's consumer chips. Let's wait and see how the Apple GPUs and ML accelerators turn out. I seriously think by the start of the 10th gen consoles, ARM CPUs will at least be in consideration for those machines.

 

What about the performance per dollar?

 

I completely agree with your thinking. 8 years is a great enough period to produce some amazing software. But maybe 7 is more realistic with a 2026 or 2027 holiday launch. Also with the performance of the M1 its going to be interesting to see if it makes sense to stick to x86 CPUs for the 10th gen. If Apple continues producing such low powered high performance processors then maybe 10th gen should use ARM as well. ARM chips plus HBM would be great for MSFT's servers as well in terms of energy savings. Otherwise 1-2TB/s for memory bandwidth makes sense with HBM memory. 32GB of RAM would be a good doubling of memory

I have no idea

 

If the performance gains in terms of power and energy consumption are great, they better start early on building emulation software to run x86 apps on 10th gen consoles in the event they have to move to ARM. Apple has shown its very possible with careful planning to move from one ISA to another and back.Owning an arm powered Mac has shown me just how powerful this move was. It almost never gets hot and is fanless. Thats crazy. Its much faster, battery lasts longer, it never makes any noise at all! If next gen consoles used ARM we'd be in for a treat and MSFT for example could save a lot with its cloud gaming initiatives due to the higher energy efficiency.

Lets wait for the Apple M2X or whatever chips they'll be placing in their Mac Pros. If those 128 core GPUs destroy the competition the way the M1 has then it will make sense to move to ARM.
I don't see why AMD cannot help develop ARM chips for next gen consoles. They already produce them for the data center market.

I would be surprised if the next gen Xbox didn't use ARM CPUs at least with the way things are moving. But although I was hoping Microsoft or Apple bought ARM, it doesn't provide a significant benefit since the move to RISC-V is almost inevitable over the long term and they can still license the ARM ISA without any issues from whoever buys the company due to regulations. So Apple turned down buying ARM for those reasons and so would Microsoft.

They can still benefit from licensing ARM without having to buy the whole company like Apple is doing. The other issue is in the long run, everyone's going to RISC-V so not a good long term investment for Apple or Microsoft.

 

MS have so much already invested into the x86-64 + DirectX ecosystem, I'd be very surprised if they moved to ARM, or any other architecture.
A lot of that back compat work, they have done, would need to be redone.

If the wanted to do a full custom ARM chip they could probably add some stuff in to make running older games perform a lot better, but again it seems doubtful.
And just as others have said, lets see what the next 1-2 generations of Apple chips perform like.
shoving a lot of memory right next to the CPU helps a lot in perf too.
If you made a custom zen core and chuck multiple GB's of low latency HBM on the same die/substrate, it will perform a hell of a lot better than a comparable system using just DRAM etc.

Now I know the Apple M1 core isn't using HBM, but their DRAM is on the same package, which is similar.
not sure how well that system will scale to 16+ cores??

Way out Gen 10 predictions...
16c32t AMD Zen 6 based core
+ Custom ish Latest AMD Gen Gfx, likely not even RDNA based by then as consumer GPU's move towards a much more Ray-traced focus, but it would be RDNA5, if they are still on RDNA by then.
I would guess with something like 512MB of infinity cache, for the GPU alone, and then 24GB LPDDR5. 2TB SSD.

 

I think its going to be interesting to see how x86 processors compare to RISC ARM processors from Apple moving forward. With all the extra instruction overhead of x86 I doubt you'd get anywhere close to the performance per watt if you went with ARM. Using an M1 mac is unbelievable to be honest. If next gen consoles went with ARM they would be dead silent yet extremely powerful.

On the other hand emulation software similar to Rosetta shouldn't be hard for a company like MSFT, it's Sony that could struggle with that. The only challenges I see for MSFT is they'd need AMD to get on board. And I think it would also be in AMD's interest to get on board with ARM right now for their future GPUs. Apple's silicon is a real deal I saw someone write on twitter the 32 core Apple GPU would provide PS5 GPU level performance at only 28W!!. The 64core GPU would be RTX 3070 performance at only 60W!! So there is potential there.

I have no idea but they're planning on up to 32 core CPUs from what's been in the news. So I'm sure they know how to fit their "high bandwidth memory" onto the package.

In less than 4 years macbook pro laptops will have 16 core ARM CPUs, you'd expect 10th gen which is 7 years away to have higher core count but I guess 16 core CPUs is a realistic conservative target.
Then for the RAM why only 24GB? You'd only have about 20-22GB for games. That would only be 1.3x improvement over current gen. If anything developers could work better with 32GB. And if using HBM memory you have lower energy demand so 32GB doesn't sound too bad. Remember 2021-2022 high end Apple laptops and desktops are going to have a minimum of 16GB of unified RAM at a higher bandwidth to support graphics and AI workloads. So in 7 years it would be interesting if the only increase was by 1.3x.

 

I think you missed this news. It's well known (now) that Apple had classic MacOS running on PowerPC long before they were ready the transition from 680x0, the same was true of having OS X running on Intel years and years before they transitioned. Microsoft need their software (incl. OS) platforms ready for when hardware takes off, not chasing it years down the time.

 

True it would be lazy and somewhat reckless if MSFT especially didn't have a full on program to emulate x86 software on ARM in the mean time. Including Xbox apps and dev tools

 

AMD is a complete package , why would they go to anyone else ? AMD doesn't have any arm cpus at the moment and I doubt MS would want to jump on their first or second generation parts.

Apple is able to move from x86 to arm because their fans will buy whatever they want and then go blame the problems on other companies. I can't even count how many people I have seen complain about the 64bit move killing their ability to run 10 or 15 year old office suites. Of course it was never apple at fault but Microsoft and microsoft should give them a free copy of the newest office that works on mac.

I don't think that is going to work for MS . They have arm processors but we still haven't seen an arm chip compete with the big boys. Apple will have a 128 core gpu but will it destroy the competition ? We have no performance metrics. Same goes with the m2x cpu side. We wont know how it compares other desktop cpus until it hits and is fully tested. Remember everything is a moving target. AMD will transition later this year or next to ddr5 with a new generation of cpus . AMD will also be introducing big/little set ups for their cpus as will intel.

I would wait and see

 

What? AMD has ARM processors already and is actively developing them. It would be risky not to looking at current technology trends. Especially with the performance gains from Apple's ARM processors. We can already see entry level macbooks with impressive GPU performance using ARM64. If this trend continues it wouldn't make sense for 10th gen systems to use x86.

I've owned apple products and never had serious problems when transitioning from one ISA to another or from 32 bit to 64 bit even when using old legacy apps. There were hiccups when transitioning for sure but what you're alluding to is to be honest an exaggeration. The performance of Rosetta 2 is unbelievable.

If anything the nature of consoles would lend well to making the switch possible even more than a general purpose Apple laptop. We saw Sony & MSFT go from Power PC RISC on the PS3 & X360 to x86 CPUs on the PS4 and Xbox One. Dynamic translation software for x86 binaries to ARM is already out there from both MSFT and Apple. The only reason why they wouldn't make the move is if ARM GPUs cannot provide significantly better performance per watt. So we have to wait and see what Apple does with their high end GPUs but I doubt its going to be less than impressive.

I think for CPUs the debate is over. ARM CPUs offer much better performance per watt than x86. Consoles are much easier to transition from one ISA to another than say all of MSFT's laptops and their OEMs. They've done this before with the transition from X360 to Xbox One.

The issue is the overhead from using x86 ISA. Apple's ARM processors in the M1X or M2X could have lower clocked processors with wider decoders performing much better while using lower power. I understand there is a move from Intel and AMD to implement and the big little set up but you're still not going to be able to match the performance per watt of these Apple processors. For the GPUs it depends on what Apple wants to target but it definitely looks like they're going all in when it comes to their Mac Pros. After the Mac Pro is released sometime next year it will be clear whether 10th gen should use ARM or not. If anything Apple has shown it can thoughtfully design highly efficient ARM processors for the required needs. The GPUs shouldn't be any different. There is no marriage till death between x86 and consoles.

 

"By packaging the latest ARM Cortex-A57"

Guess MS is going to invest in a 2012 chip because that will surely outclass a future xbox based on x64.

Apple macbooks have impressive gpu performance but that is Apple we would have to see how it compares to a full desktop and we also have to see what the rest of the industry is at since apple wont sell to microsoft.

Samsung is using RDNA from AMD. So where is this other gpu tech coming from for microsoft? AMD ? Nvidia ? Power vr ?

Where is amd's custom arm chip competing with the apple custom arm chips ?

Great to be you. Guess you only use apple own software ?

https://www.forbes.com/sites/ewansp...crosoft-office-broken-update/?sh=7550ce997f8d

"One of the biggest issues is the removal of support for 32-bit based applications - historically a huge part of the macOS software portfolio. Many of these apps are still in active development and have been recoded to 64-bit, but others have either moved on, died, or changed business model. That has left countless people high and dry with no affordable alternatives."

Oh

"Let’s turn to Microsoft's software, specifically Microsoft Office. Many individuals and businesses purchased Microsoft Office and have been running this vital software suite on their Macs with no problem. With the update to Catalina, these 32-bit applications no longer work."

Microsoft is x86, power pc , x86-64 , x86-64. They did the work to emulate all that software on x86-64 but now they are going to go to a chip that isn't design , who's performance isn't known and re write all that emulation software to move to arm. I just don't see it.

Thats good you came to that conclusion. I am glad for you. I don't agree with it. Traditionally modern arm chips have been designed with one goal in mind which is maximum performance at the lowest possible wattage. But we don't actually know how well that will scale upwards. Just adding cores isn't a magic bullet and getting higher clock speeds will require more transistors which will make the designs less efficent.

mean while you already have x64 products from amd and intel that continue to get more power efficient each generation.

The ryzen 3x00 series goes up to 105w on the 3800x and above. The new 5x000 also goes up to 105w . however your looking at a 25% increase in performance in mixed usage senarions.

With each micron drop AMD will be able to add more core and higher clock rates all while continuing to iterate on the core and bring up IPC.

Are you sure about that ? Also what does performance per watt really matter inside of a console ? Your dealling with a much bigger form factor and active cooling vs cell phones and tablets. Your right maybe the m2 will be great but at the same time maybe it wont scale well when your clocking ever higher.

But even if the M2x is better than amd's x64 stuff. Where is Microsoft or sony going to get it from ?

 

I think it's obvious they wouldn't do that.

Yeah let's wait and see how they perform but their 8 core GPU is already performing close to an RTX 1050 Ti. They're 16 core and 32 core GPUs in the pro macbook pros are going to be insane! If we're talking about the 128 core GPUs then thats something completely different.

True Apple definitely can design impressive processors. For a gaming console I think it would be AMD designing an ARM GPU alongside Sony and MSFT.

Yeah that makes sense for Samsung they don't have to design a microarchitecture for their GPUs. It doesn't stop AMD from eventually licensing ARM64 for their future GPU architectures. Any company that works alongside them for their processors would benefit(Samsung, MSFT, Sony).

I remember that transition. I've always used Microsoft Office even when I had windows laptops and never had any major issues whatsoever on the mac when transitioning to the 64 bit apps. I think the general consensus is Apple has handled transitions from one ISA or changes to the register sizes well.

They're already building emulation software. Best believe there's an arm processor running Xbox games in emulation.

I think it's now evident that ARM chips can be used in desktops, laptops, mobile and even HPC. Look at the Fugaku and the A64FX. I think the main discovery that it's better to use accelerators than trying to increase the number of instructions in an ISA. So ARM processors can be used anywhere.

I don't think you can realistically achieve the same amount of performance per watt. The 128 core Apple GPU could have a power draw of less than 150W an RTX 3090 is at 350W. I just dont see that happening.

Buy and use an M1 mac and this will be answered. You could have a much smaller console and with better performance. You don't have to spend money on expensive cooling solutions like in the PS5. Also the advantage is with the move to more cloud computing and gaming. Performance per watt is really important in keeping the energy costs down.

They'd have to design their own ARM based GPU/CPU/ML RT accelerators for gaming. Simple or challenging the return would be amazing. They could convince AMD to partner for it. Consoles are special purpose devices for gaming they have zero commitment to x86 if the performance gains are there on another ISA.

 

While intresting, i dont really believe in 'Apple taking over the world' thing just jet. Imagine PS6, Next xbox, all PC and phones being apple hardware

 

It wouldn't be Apple hardware just using ARM ISA for their processors. I think it's pretty obvious that thats the way forward for a lot of companies.

 

What'd I miss? A lot, apparently xD

Welp, time to do some reading to catch up....

 

So what would they use ? its the only amd arm chip.

So their 8 core gpu is already performing close to a 4 year old low end part from nvidia ?

vs just continuing to improve on ryzen ? AMD barely has enough resources to focus on gpu and x64 technology right now.

So AMD will license Nvidia technology to make a cpu instead of just advancing the technology they have patents on ?

Yes and now what 2 years later they are doing another transition. Great for customers lol

maybe but i doubt its good. Even their surface pro x with thier customized chip runs x86 and x64 code poorly. with x86 code it runs it on par with an i5 in the regular pro line

They always could. But that is not what I am talking about.

I wasn't aware the 3090 is a x86-64 chip ? Why would an apple gpu be better ?

I've used one . I wont continue using one, it lacks features that I would want and need. My main travel device is now a 7pro + because the 7 and + have usb c charging I don't need to worry about battery life. I now have a small charger block that i can plug in anywhere and it charges my phone , watch and surface. I also keep a 20000mah battery which is the size of my phone in my bag and I can't remember the last time I was anywhere that I was concerned about needing power for my device. My pro 7 was getting me about 4 hours of work time , the + is closer to 6 hours. Even when flying I doubt I would even need to touch my battery pack (i do on my phone however) I actually bought a timbuck2 almost a decade ago that had a dedicated ziper pouch at the bottom to put a laptop charging brick in. Now i just keep that battery in there and it takes up way less room than those ever did.

I've also experience new devices that will give me closer to 10 hours of battery life . How much more battery life do I need ?

At home in a console why do I care about power per watt ? I only care about performance and performance $

Why ?

https://wccftech.com/amd-5nm-next-generation-zen-4-ryzen-epyc-cpus-to-feature-over-25-ipc-increase/

AMD seems to be doing just fine

I feel like every few years of my life (and i'm pushing 40 now) I hear ARM is going to take over the world , x86 is dead its not going to be able to keep up. 30+ years of seeing those people be wrong.

Look we are going to agree to disagree otherwise our ports will just get gigantic and we will continue endlessly .

I will just say this. AMD and Intel both invest billions into x64 and they generate insane revenue from them. They continue to push performance while lowering power usage. I think once we start seeing big little from intel and amd the dynamic of these conversations will change. Intel has been hard at work on atom and amd continues to evolve their small core chips.

 

ZOMG! When Quoting goes wrong!

EDIT: Seems there was a missing '/' in an end-quote so it was inception of quotes, inside quotes, inside quotes. I believe it's corrected now.