Sony PS6 / Future Xbox - 10th gen console speculation [2020]

Discussion in 'Console Technology' started by Megadrive1988, Aug 3, 2020.

  1. Megadrive1988

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    First, when do you expect next-next gen to start:

    Holiday 2026
    Holiday 2027
    Holiday 2028

    Lets assume there are no mid-gen PS5 Pro/Xbox Series X2 consoles in '23/'24.

    PS6 / Microsoft Project Gemini (Scarlett/Anaconda successor) could seriously launch as early as Holiday 2026
    One of the tech sites (DigiTimes I think it was) said that TSMC expects this to be a shorter console generation, of 5 years. I am willing to bet on a solid 6 years of PS5/XSX games and then in 2026 slowly start making ready the next-generation. Many of the first games will be cross-gen with XSX and Gemini, as well as PS5 and PS6, but won't run on Lockhart. Still some cross-gen games releasing in 2027 but by Fall 2028, all new games are PS6/Xbox/Gemini/PC.


    specs
    TSMC 3nm GAA-FET / EUV / High Power node.
    Package 2-die design with High Bandwidth Memory. No Chiplets, just classic 1 CPU SoC /w RT processor block + 1 GPU die + 32/48/64 GB HBM3 or HBM4 - 1.2 ~ 2.4 TB/sec bandwidth system memory bandwidth with improvements to granularity,
    enhanced Zen 5+ architecture. 16 cores/32 threads. 4.8~5.2 GHz
    80 CUs, custom RDNA 4, works especially closely with RT unit on the CPU die, along with its own RT units per CU or WGP.
    Main draw is a much higher percentage of the scene/frame is done via RT, using less rasterization. Typically 30-50 percent of a frame will use some form of raytracing or path tracing, while the other 50 to 70 percent of the scene is still using rasterization. This will represent the new golden age for mainstream 3D graphics. The Ray+Raster Hybrid Era. You might say, wait, I thought PS5 and Xbox Series X can do real-time ray tracing?
    Well yes they can, but probably no more than 5-10 percent of each frame rendered in the average PS5 game is going to be Ray Traced. But next next gen, if 30-50 percent of the scene is RT, that's a huge jump, if said PS6 console has say, 10 times the ray tracing performance of PS5, even if PS6 is only 4-5x the PS5 in traditional rasterization and TFLOPS. The shift to ray tracing is a multi-generation endeavor.

    Nintendo will launch
     
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  2. Lurkmass

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    IMO the best time to start a new generation will be when we can't shrink our physical circuits anymore which could be potentially as early as 2025/2026 ...

    The big focus on graphics technology next generation will be ray traced scattering effects so that artists can finally have the freedom to use translucent materials!
     
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  3. Riddlewire

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    Well, here's a prediction I have 100% confidence in.
    The next Xbox won't be called "Series X2"

    Microsoft reliably throws out the previously established naming convention with each new generation.
    So I'd expect something like "Xbox Now". Because they're always looking to start over. Anything to avoid being one number behind the Playstation.
     
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  4. HBRU

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    Well...
    Don't like this. It's confusing.
     
  5. Nesh

    Nesh Double Agent
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    Out of curiosity....have we ever been close with our predictions? :p
     
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  6. London Geezer

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    Considering half of us (me included) were absolutely adamant that PS5/X would "never ever" have SSDs and raytracing due to cost, and that PS4/XOne would have 2 or 4GB of RAM, also due to cost, you see the pattern here? ;)
     
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  7. fehu

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    I can confirm that this forum has a long and constant history of not guessing any aspect of any console.
    Maybe just "it will play games", but that was easy.

    Anyway, how can this generation be shorter? For once we have modern and powerful hardware, at some point their rt implementation will be mortified even by an entry level gpu, but this has never been a problem in the past generations.
     
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  8. London Geezer

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    "Short generations" has also been a big topic for the past 2 generations, and if we ignore the Pro consoles, this also has never really materialised.
     
  9. Kaotik

    Kaotik Drunk Member
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    Wrong predictions aside, why would you want RT close to CPU rather than close to GPU?
     
  10. Riddlewire

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    Your confusion perplexes me.
    Please elucidate so I may take steps to clarify.
     
  11. TheAlSpark

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    I predict we will still see 8 physical cores. :p
     
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  12. Lalaland

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    Hands up here for me too, never expected them to do it as I thought they would hold to a €399 price point, also was wrong on MS getting 360 back compat to be as widely compatible as it is so what I'm saying is take the inverse of my predictions to your local bookies.

    But while I'm here.....
    I'm going to put my money on some form of HBM for the next proper gen in 2028
    There will be a 4 year cycle before another ".5" Gen, it's a relatively low hanging fruit, add N GPU blocks + die shrink = easy $$$
    Microsoft will continue their quest to drive me personally mad by naming their next platform "Series Ecks"
     
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  13. milk

    milk Like Verified
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    And I was almost thinking we had gotten even that easy one wrong during XBONE's reveal!
     
  14. McHuj

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    I'm going to go with 2028 for the next gen. I think this gen has the makings of a long one since we are not starting out very under-powered.

    The current gen had a deficiency in the CPU performance from day 1. Xbox One had a severely under-powered GPU as well and turns out a needlessly complex memory design. It doesn't seem like there are many compromises this time around (or at the very least drastic ones like Jaguar cores).

    Sure, PC will have a faster CPU's, GPU's, and SSD's, but I don't think they will be that much drastically faster, at least in the mainstream/mainstream price level. In the time frame of this upcoming gen, I really don't expect CPU's to double in ST performance, sure core counts will increase. GPU wise, I think the innovation will come in the form of more machine learning for upscaling and dedicated RT hardware and not more teraflops. (I don't expect to be buying a ~100 TF GPU in the next 6-8 years.) The point is that I don't expect PC's to outpace the consoles as quickly as they have the current gen so I think that has the makings of a longer gen.

    I think next-gen mainly due to slowing of silicon shrinking will be focused on dedicated silicon for ML and RT.

    If I had to make a very early prediction I think the next system will look like:

    CPU: 12-16 x86 cores, 24-32 threads @ 4 GHz. Better IPC
    GPU: ~24-36 TF, some new type of RT cores, and ML accelerators for upscaling/resampling (we need more efficient ways of making things look pretty versus just brute compute)
    MEM: I think it has to be HBM, I think we're at the end of the road for GDDR memory. To support RT/ML, I think the next GPU's will need 1-2 TB/sec and only HBM will be able to deliver that.
    SSD: Yes, but faster
     
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  15. zupallinere

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    I agree with the idea that you could go a bit longer because of the fact the new consoles have more power than this generation but with unknowns about RT and ML may make both Sony and MS think about a shorter generation or Pro version within 4 to 5 years.
    If you get monstrous GPUs in 3 years that can make every game look great on any 4k or even 8k screen and a solid response to the SSD machinations of the PS5 and Series X I could see pressure to get with the new RT/ML/compute paradigms that gaming companies may be relying on in the PC world.
    If you can get a does it all in 60 FPS card for under 300 dollars in 2024 or an APU based machine for 400 bucks that does a good job at mimicking Series X and PS5 then their hands may be forced at that point.
     
  16. Metal_Spirit

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    Well, there was Xbox One X
    Then the series X aka Xbox Two X.
    So for the next one I would guess Xbox Three X or XXX for short ;)
     
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  17. Strange

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    XXXbox

    Sounds like some 18+ site.
     
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  18. techuse

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    I dont see how a large enough performance increase to justify new consoles will be possible with current production technology.
     
  19. zed

    zed
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    I tried to find my post ~2014 when the same thread came out just after the ps4 released predicting how the ps5 would be, I was saying like can we at least a year before we start speculating, for one thing all the speculations are always wrong.
    I see this time the threads even earlier, the ps5 is not even out (and we dont know how it actually is) and here ppl want to speculate about the ps6 :lol: if we extrapolate out in a few years we will be speculating about the ps7 & ps8 at the same time
     
  20. eastmen

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    Ryzen 5 , RDNA 4/5 ? Do they have something after RDNA on public road maps yet ? 32 gigs of ram with faster ssd's and higher capacity. Ryzen 5 would feature a 16 core chip ?

    I think its easier to talk about refreshes. My guess ? XSX would get something like an RDNA 4 (thinkin a 2024 launch) with 24 gigs of ram and a faster clocked Ryzen chip perhaps based off the 4th generation zen processor ? A refresh of the ssd perhaps to something around what the ps5 has now. 4 years prices will drop a bunch so i'm thinking a 2TB drive as standard.

    XSX with a few tweaks (like the one to the one s) would end up at a lower price point with a redesigned smaller console. Most likely ditching optical completely.


    On the sony side due to the size of the box I am expecting them to focus on a Ps5 slim as soon as possible. I expect one in 2022 and perhaps we will see a PS5 pro in 2023 like they did with the ps4/pro. It was 2013/2016 for those correct ? MS was 2013/2017 for the one / x.

    Its hard to speculate. I don't really see a disruptive hardware change coming down the pipeline right now. Perhaps AMD has a big/little design out there. Maybe we will see the return of jaguar. Get a 16 core zen chip with 8 jaguar cores for lower power modes ?

    perhaps we will see a mobile console from one of the companies. If lochart at 4tflops is true I wonder how long it would take to make a mobile switch like console from it. Could they do it at a proper heat / power envelope with 5nm ?


    Jazz it up a bit a zen 3 cpu with a 4tflop rdna 3 chip and a 1440p screen would be a nice portable device. Can get some really nice looking images using FIdeltyFX to upscale so you can even render at a lower resolution and perhaps with rdna 2 or even 3 we will see something more like DLSS from AMD or an improved FidelityFX at the least.
     
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