Pricing for Barcelona isn't a very representative data point in my book given AMD's likely margins at such a price. And don't forget the strong euro...
Point taken. However, it does prove that quad-cores are not necessarily overly expensive. Once AMD gets its act together again and some games and other applications start using quad-core, Phenoms will be pretty popular and Intel has to drop its prices as well. On a mature 45 nm, I'm sure they'll still have a good margin. So it's just a matter of time before it becomes really attactive to buy a quad-core instead of a dual-core.
AMD has said again and again that they don't see the point of more than tri/quad-core for desktops even in the next several years.
For several years. Sure. They still have trouble producing quad-cores that are reliable and fast at acceptable margins. So I don't expect them to already make statements about octa-cores. They want to sell Phenom X3 and X4's now and not have people wait for K11.
Intel isn't that aggressive either; AFAIK, we'll still see dual-cores being very common in the 32nm generation.
For handhelds, yes. For everything else it really doesn't make sense to have a 35 mm² chip that sells for 20 €. Quad-cores will be as ubiquitous in the 32 nm generation as dual-cores are in the 45 nm generation.
AI and sound can both be very expensive depending on the level of complexity. Let's put it this way: an UT3 bot is much more expensive than a Medieval: Total War AI unit, and there's no reason to believe it couldn't get even more expensive in the future. As for sound, you can do quite expensive things with materials and ray/wavetracing... (and no, I'm not convinced it's overkill either)
Regarding physics, I think many of the apparent limits are more related to workflows/toolsets/implementations than designer creativity.
These kind of tasks scale a little, but not by much. Let me put it this way: if we suddenly had a 10x faster monster graphics card, we could easily increase resolution, anti-aliasing, blur, etc. With a 10x higher computational budget for something like physics you can't instantly put that to use. Indeed you're limited by a lack of software. And while I'm sure game designer creativity is limitless it becomes increasingly more absurd to throw more resources at it. If you keep adding features it will never be finished. Duke Nukem Forever syndrome.
So I'm really convinced that the steady evolution of CPU performance is fine to keep up with any increase in A.I./physics/sound complexity.
Yes, 4-way SIMD is required for texturing, so the threads are likely grouped 4-by-4 and synced (with no performance penalty except maybe not being able to hide as much latency for a few cycles) around texture instructions.
So you're enthousiastic about an SGX's 4-way SIMD but not about software rendering on a multi-core CPU with 4-way SIMD?
x86 is far from the worst ISA imaginable, but standard ISAs in general really aren't good, especially when you have specific workloads or architectures in mind that could benefit from specific tricks.
Sure, it's not the best ISA for a very specific workload. But x86 is quite good for running a very large range of workloads. Developers (like Tim Sweeney) are screaming for processors that don't limit their creativity by making only a few select workloads efficient. Games look too much alike because every time you try something other than what the competition is doing performance decimates.
Things are definitely improving with every generation, but I think Larrabee will be a significant leap forward in allowing developers to try new things. On systems without Larrabee, a multi-core CPU will be a good fallback for the non-graphical workloads.
Going back to single-core isn't the point. The point is, are we going to go farther than tri/quad-core, ever, in the mainstream market? And are we going to ever need more single-thread performance than a 3GHz Conroe?
Why do you mention a 3 Ghz Conroe and not a 2 GHz Conroe? Exactly, because it's never enough. Question answered.
Certainly we'll need more aggregate performance for some things, but those can come from not-really-CPUs cores.
Why not? We're all going to have 100+ GFLOPS CPU's in several years, but other hardware will continue to exists in all sorts and sizes (including being absent). The CPU is a the only processor developers can rely on. So it better get faster as technology advances.
If there's no texture sampling involved, a multi-core CPU almost always beats IGPs at GPGPU tasks...