Saddam dead?

V

Vince

Veteran
Anyone want to bet me (shits and giggles of course) that Saddam hit the big on in tonight's F-117a/Tomahawk surgical strike?


Because the first thing that comes to my mind is 'Why blow your cover a day early?' It's light in Baghdad, thus any Shock & Awe, highly synchonious type attack en masse is impossible due to the problems with... um.. the sun.

Thus, for then to blow their cover and allow Iraq to have a window of oppertunity of, say, 18 hours untill nightfall to blow some oil wells or dams or launch some SCUDs is insane.

So, the only conceivable reason to surgically strike right at day-break would be to assasinate Saddam.
 
If you guys can get your testosterone and adrenaline down for a moment you might be able to think a little about what Saddam was thinking when by refusing to account for some insignificant amounts of mediocre wmds he took on the most powerful nation on earth that had previously shown Iraq it has no qualms with taking them on and kicking their asses.

Saddam has either balls of steel. Or he should have been a professional Vegas gambler (missed his real calling). Or he has an ace up his sleeve we dont know about yet.
 
Thus, for then to blow their cover and allow Iraq to have a window of oppertunity of, say, 18 hours untill nightfall to blow some oil wells or dams or launch some SCUDs is insane.
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You think we'd suprise them, either way? (hint: they know its coming, they've probably done all their boobytrapping without waiting for us to start)
 
i don't think he refused exile because has an ace up his sleeve, just too much pride to bend over and take it. granted it is very disturbing to see a man who has committed so much atrocity with so much pride, but none the less that is what i see. as for if he is dead; i don't feel like i have enough information to make a reasonable speculation either way.
 
RussSchultz said:
You think we'd suprise them, either way? (hint: they know its coming, they've probably done all their boobytrapping without waiting for us to start)
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(hint: Lets think like big people, which appearently some of us can't)

Saddam, due to external political influences couldn't preemptivly attack the United States forces around him. But, once attacked he could embark on whatever he wishes short of WMD release.

With that in mind, realize that the underlying ideology of a Shock & Awe movement is it stresses the synchronization of thousands of concurrent precision attacks done by manned and unmanned vehicals. Thus, within the first few minutes, the sheer parrallelization of the attack removeds most offensive strategic, CCC, and tactical offensive power of the opponent. Thereby eliminating the ability for them to strike back upon your forces.

Thus, the American's surgically struck and played their hand. They used a handfull of F-117s and Tomahawaks. Yet, there has been no Iraq recourse, no oil fires, no dams bursted, no chem attack.

Thus, my origional question - which I was hoping you'd pick up on inferience as I didn't think I needed to exaplin all this - is why would the Americans have blown their phychological weapon of -nothing- (eg. a lapse between ultimatum and action)... as well as the crutial concurrency of attack spread across the entire spectrum of equiptment?

Answer: Saddam's dead.

Edit: You do realize, they can't attack for 18 hours and dusk... how is that not blowing a tactical advantage?

Edit 2: For once, I agree wholeheartedly with Kyle. Saddam's ideological and historical vision of himself over-rides any logical abstraction that we have of this situation. Another example would be Hitler and his invasion of the Soviet Union in '41 based on nothing but his deep ideological hatred of Communism and Stalin.
 
Hope your right Vince it might mean its over. But I wouldnt bet on that as they might keep what little they have militarily till the very last second when they have allied forces literally in range... I cant see those oil ditches burn forever... and they dont have an infinite amount of ammo... They shouldve launched those scuds by now tho if they dont want to lose them...

That is an indicator...
 
Hmm news in that Saddam will address his nation on tv soon... guess hes not dead... but what is he waiting for to use his scuds? He either has none or they have been compromised (thank god) or he cant communicate to who in charge to fire them... but then there should be protocols in case of communication breakdown...
 
pax said:
Hmm news in that Saddam will address his nation on tv soon... guess hes not dead... but what is he waiting for to use his scuds? He either has none or they have been compromised (thank god) or he cant communicate to who in charge to fire them... but then there should be protocols in case of communication breakdown...
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Huh, Yeah, I heard.

Hey, I never said I was right... but the indications are there so I posted it. I question just whats going on as it seems... wierd. AP reporting artillery fire, ect.

I guess we'll know soon enough, huh? Hopefully they got someone in their first surgical strike - as like I mentioned earlier, there's going to be this wierd pause period untill the night I'd think.

What do you think? Ohh, and what station/news org. do you listen to Pax?
 
Yes, CNN was saying that Iraqi state media was going to broadcast a statement from Saddam Hussein soon. So it appears that if he was a target then he survived.

As for Saddam having "balls of steel" or overwe'ening pride, I suspect it is closer to the latter. If I had to attribute a single psychological motive to his political career, it would be a hunger for power above all else, and a willingless to do anything to retain that power. It is completely unsurprising that he did not accept the ultimatum. Any outcome that results in a loss of power for him is simply inconceivable to him.
 
Im thinking I dont know what Saddam is holding back with what few assets he has left in terms of scuds which are the only means for him to drag Israel in. Im betting they were taken out... If so the only other concern is him giving some shit to terrorist if he hasnt done so... I watch CBC Newsworld, BBC, CNN... we dont get msnbc... I wont bother with foxnews hhe... ;)

Im still trying to figure out what the fucker is thinking...
 
PurplePigeon said:
Yes, CNN was saying that Iraqi state media was going to broadcast a statement from Saddam Hussein soon. So it appears that if he was a target then he survived.

As for Saddam having "balls of steel" or overwe'ening pride, I suspect it is closer to the latter. If I had to attribute a single psychological motive to his political career, it would be a hunger for power above all else, and a willingless to do anything to retain that power. It is completely unsurprising that he did not accept the ultimatum. Any outcome that results in a loss of power for him is simply inconceivable to him.
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But its a rock and hard place. The idea he didnt give up his few wmds cuz he feared some loss of power or pride is hard to accept. Hes losing power now... and hed have clearly known that... heck he was humble enough to allow inspectors back in after bragging they kicked out?... Wouldnt that humiliation have made him look weak in the eyes of his citizens?
 
pax said:
Im still trying to figure out what the fucker is thinking...
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One possible grim scenario has the Iraqi military deploying anti-aircraft, scuds, etc in civilian areas such as apartment buildings in Baghdad. That could force US and British forces to generate significant civilian casualties in order to take them out, and what's more, cause world opinion of the war to further degenerate. Basically force a pyrrhic victory upon the coalition.
 
PurplePigeon said:
pax said:
Im still trying to figure out what the fucker is thinking...
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One possible grim scenario has the Iraqi military deploying anti-aircraft, scuds, etc in civilian areas such as apartment buildings in Baghdad. That could force US and British forces to generate significant civilian casualties in order to take them out, and what's more, cause world opinion of the war to further degenerate. Basically force a pyrrhic victory upon the coalition.
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Could the US afford to take out scuds in civie areas if they are loaded up with a ton of sarin or other bio\chems each??
 
pax said:
But its a rock and hard place. The idea he didnt give up his few wmds cuz he feared some loss of power or pride is hard to accept. Hes losing power now... and hed have clearly known that... heck he was humble enough to allow inspectors back in after bragging they kicked out?... Wouldnt that humiliation have made him look weak in the eyes of his citizens?
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I think allowing the weapons inspections was simply political maneouvring on his part. The US could have used a refusal of inspections as an excuse to immediately start a war.

As for why he did not give up his remaining WMD in order to avoid this conflict in the end. Well, I suppose it is possible that he misjudged the endgame, where a final UN resolution was not voted on and where the US ultimatum boiled down to him accepting exile (and not just disarming).

Frankly, I suspect the true intent of the US was to remove Saddam from power all along. If he really does have WMD, then just disarming would not be sufficient since it would be easy to restart those weapons programs. And I suspect Saddam thinks the same thing -- that the real goal is to get rid of him and his sons; so perhaps he accepts the war as inevitable. In this situation, it would be in his interest to hide his WMD, if he has any, from inspectors.

And I don't think any of his citizens think of Saddam as weak -- no one is more aware of his ruthlessness than the people of Iraq, I'm sure.
 
Its just that the wmds he was asked to account for arent really the kind he should bother protecting. He couldve gained valuable time in giving up his cheap wmds... Unless he feared the inspection system was in fact getting really close so he simply maneuvered the endgame as you say. In that case giving up on inspections mightve been a much worse thing than most feared.
 
I'm listening to the live translation of Saddam's Hussein speech on CNN, and damn if I don't feel like I am listening to some weird David Lynch stream-of-consciousness version.

edit: decided I sounded a bit too flippant
 
he kind of stayed on the palestinian\zionism issue quite a bit... although the speech was basically all propaganda... but I think hes basically threatened Israel... maybe he still has some scuds...
 
Joe DeFuria said:
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,81625,00.html

IN THE KUWAITI DESERT — Iraq fired missiles across the Kuwaiti border toward U.S. troops Thursday, prompting soldiers to don gas masks and chemical protective gear. At least one of the rockets has been confirmed as a Scud missile, and was intercepted by a Patriot missile, Coalition Defense officials tell Fox News.
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IIRC Iraq is not supposed to have any SCUD missiles. Of course that would be going by what Iraq claims. SCUD are considered WMD?
 
I think Sadam know's he's not going to surive this. In fact, I think he's prepared for it.

I'm usually ot a gambling man, but right now I'd put down a fiver on no WMD being used to defend Iraq. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if Sadam has actively destroyed all of his WMD in the run up to this (if, indeed, he had any left in the first case).

That way America rolls in, finds nothing, and looks like the bad guy. Sadam goes down as a martyr. Huge influx of instability within the region. Sadam wins (if you'd call getting done in winning! :? ).

Anyway, that's my take on what's going on in his head.
 
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