R520 - talk, rumours, speculation; the lot!

Hmm. MSI taking a whiz as they edge their way out the door, maybe? Could be, I suppose. Possibly ATI would disclose yield issues to explain to a smaller partner why they won't be getting any initially (while others do).

 

What other reason could there be for ATI not meeting demand other than yield problems?

 

Something that has characterised the high end launches over the past few years, and one that was most certainly evident from the 7800 GTX launch is that these first batches are not of "chips" at all, but finished boards. Look around the web at the initial GTX reviews and you'll note that virtually all that changes between the board vendors is the HSF panel or even just a sticker over the standard NVIDIA one. I personally think that there isn't a 7800 GT/GTX board that isn't coming out of the Flextronics fabs right now, and the likelihood is that the same will be for R520 and all the boards probably coming from PC Partner, regardless of eventual vendor - its not until the product such as these runs a few months in that other vendors actually start manifacturing their own boards, if at all.

This being the case all the vendors need to know is roughtly when they are expected and what the heatsink specifications are so that they can get their packaging and HSF stickers ready for when the boards come in. It wouldn't suprise me if the board vendors only have a matter of weeks before knowing the final "off" date (which is probably why you see th smaller, more focused vendors so keen to promote at the launch because they have more capability to react in such a manner).

 

Sounds simple enough......so when are they expected then?

Goldman Sachs had this to say about NVDA's earnings report:

"We maintain our In-line rating on Nvidia in the context of our Neutral semiconductor devices sector view. We maintain a constructive stance on Nvidia despite its FQ2 (Jul) revenue miss, as the company experiences the benefits of ATI's delay in launching its next-generation high-end product (codenamed "R520"), while executing on its own product transition and improving margins. We think the ATI delay, with launch now expected for the R520 product in late September with follow-on RV530 and RV515 products in early October, allowed Nvidia to capture the majority of OEM design wins for the back-to-school and winter holiday selling seasons. Beyond the near-term advantage Nvidia is gaining in C2H'05 high-end share gain and pricing power, we expect the delay could have a "domino effect" with further longer-term implications for incremental market share benefit to Nvidia and away from ATI if the delay ends up affecting ATI's derivative desktop product proliferation this winter and its notebook product launch next spring. We await visibility on the competitive performance of the R520, which is still an unknown and thus a risk to ATI's ability to regain its competitive position. Regarding valuation, NVDA is trading at a CY'06E P/E of 18x on our new CY'06E EPS and the after-market trading price of $30. We see this multiple as reasonable vs. the group median of 25x and the market multiple of 17x, given Nvidia's current strong product cycle, as well as its higher business volatility."

One gets the impression from this that RV515/RV530 are also going to miss the upcoming OEM cycle, yet we've heard nothing to suggest these parts are delayed with respect to their original launch schedules. I had always assumed that ATI was relying on RV515/530 for the OEM refresh this fall (can't see them fending off the 6200/6600 for yet another six months with SM2.0 parts). Was this assumption incorrect and they had planned on sticking with X300/550/600/700 until next winter/spring.......or are they in fact behind here too and hence missed the OEM window across the board?

 

or is it a case of not wanting to release the mainstream before the high end...

 

Would it make any business sense to withhold shipments of RV515/RV530 from OEMs just to be able to announce R520 first if it meant losing those bread-and-butter OEM slots? That would be hara-kiri for ATI financially. And it's not as though RV515 in a low-end Dell desktop is going to have any impact on retail R520 sales.

Dave, is it correct to assume that RV515/530 have already gone through OEM qualification?

 

hmm what ever it is its not good either way. Seems that what ever ATi does its a bit too late this quarter.

 

Considering OEM qual cycles are at least 3 months for time to market SKU's (consumer), is it correct to assume they haven't or aren't in progress if they are supposedly launching in October?

 

I still have alot of faith in ATI

 

Did I leave that obvious a trail for you to nail me red-handed here that quickly?

 

Hehe, no. You just happened to be following along the same path as me this evening.

 

How do you explain the variety in clocks then? And, oh boy, was there variety! Did NV bin by AIB request and charge a scosh more or less, depending on 400, 425, 445, or 450? (Did I miss any?)

Edit: Duh. GTX. Well, GT is still "high end" by any measure. Just not "highest".

 

was wondering that myself. Although 'product diferentiation' has reached all aspects of all product lines these days.

 

Yeah, but if they are all getting the same boards and heat sinks. . why would you want to be joe 400 when the consumer can go buy jack 450? Risk of returns of prematurely failed boards? Does NV take back & credit for boards from AIBs because they don't exceed the spec NV put on them? I doubt it. . .

 

I noticed from the 7800GTX launch that Asus and Albatron, which traditionally have some boards in blue colour, were providing blue 7800GTX boards, however I assumed that they had requested that the PCB blue from the manufacturer ( do they have this amount of sway ?). The 7800GT from Asus seems to have their old 6800 heatsink on it, which is a clever move to differentiate whilst using up old stock and probably gives better cooling to boot. You can see it on Digitimes at the moment.

If nvidia are making the whole boards themselves what is to stop them going the next step and just selling the whole thing for the whole of the products lifecycle and thus cutting out the middleman ?

 

probably Horrid memories of what happend to 3dfx-board_manufacturers relations though they went the whole hog and bought the plant in mexico too.

 

http://www.anandtech.com/printarticle.aspx?i=2501

 

ASUS probably are manufacturing it themselves, but then its no coincidence that they also have the latest ship date on that list.

 

I don't sure it may relate to the thread or not... but as I remembered, ATi mentioned that the 90nm production will not be counted as return for investment in Q3... Isn't this simply they told us for very long time that their new R5xx with 90nm will be mainly displayed on Q4. And one good thing is that ATi have got a planty of time to handle their current child (R4xx) as we saw it as finally the varient of X800GT..... If so, this means ATi don't late at all but they keep themselves tightly on track (maybe marketing strategy for not letting their product killing each other).... Just only thinking...

 

I think ATI has established themselves in the OEM community far far better then 3DFX. They will allow them fallback because ATI has generally been a very good OEM supplier.

Personally i find it shows a serious lack of knowledge when people try to compare this to 3DFX in anyway. (this comment is not directed at you personally)

Of course they wont see a return yet, this was a very costly endever. Its going to be a year or most likely a bit more before they see benefit.

As far as the X800GT, what can i say, it looks like they're trying to flush out every workable VPU they have, plunk it on a card, and get it to market. Hopefully this is sign that they are clearing for R5 series.

Newish news is Nvidia is coming back with an 8pipe 6800XT...no this is not a joke, but its turning into one. I miss the good days when there was a High/Med/Low end card and that was it.