nVidia slowing down...

Discussion in 'General 3D Technology' started by Joe DeFuria, Dec 17, 2002.

  1. Joe DeFuria

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    Well, it's not as if nVidia hasn't really been slowing down "between generations" anyway, but interesting to hear it from the horse's mouth:

    http://www.digitimes.com/NewsShow/Article.asp?datePublish=2002/12/17&pages=02&seq=3

    Puts even more serious doubts that NV40 will arrive in 2003.

    As for the rest of the aricle, I don't see 3d graphics market picking up in 2003 at all...at least for the reasons Huang states. I don't see next year as any different from this year. The DX9 platform is not going to spur huge new volumes of sales...at least not in 2003.
     
  2. RussSchultz

    RussSchultz Professional Malcontent
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    Could it be (finally) reaching a plateau?
     
  3. T2k

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    Actually IIRC Huang stated sometimes one year ago - at the time he thinks NV30 will be out in time - that NV30 gonna be 'The Platform' for the next 2 years and NV40 supposed to be out around '04-05... now everything slides? If so then NV will lose a pig piece from the cake...

    PS: I bet they've spinned up already the development of NV40...

    EDIT: I mean really not like in this year... :lol: :p
     
  4. Brimstone

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    So if Microsoft goes with Nvidia for the X-Box 2, the GPU will be based off of the NV 40 architechture? A transistor count in the 250 - 300 million range?
     
  5. Tahir2

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    It all depends on when XBOX 2 will be out and Moore's infamous law.

    If the XBOX 2 is released 4 years after XBOX the original then we have the possibility of a transistor increase of about 2.75X. (Moore's law or its variants claims something like double transistor count/power by 2x every eighteen months).

    The transistor count of the Geforce 4 is 63 million (I can't remember the exact number for XBOX GPU but that did also include other functions as well didn't it?).

    So 63 million times 2.75X = 173.5 million transistors.

    My guesttimate is a transistor count of about 200 million in best circumstances if XBOX is indeed released around 2004/5 time.
     
  6. Richthofen

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    "
    As for the rest of the aricle, I don't see 3d graphics market picking up in 2003 at all...at least for the reasons Huang states. I don't see next year as any different from this year. The DX9 platform is not going to spur huge new volumes of sales...at least not in 2003.
    "
    Well DX9 probably not but Doom3 and other games will.
    And of course the majority is expecting a turnaround in the entire economy.
    If the economy grows the desktop PC market will grow too.
     
  7. Nappe1

    Nappe1 lp0 On Fire!
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    suuure they do.
    as they did last year, when DX8(.1) came with awesome programmability.

    if current "trend" continues, we get even less games based on inviduality and good ideas than this year and even more games that go to category "INEEDMORECORPSESANDBLOOD!!!11" or "HeySomethingMovedIHaveToShootAllOverThePlaceWithMyAwesomeBazooka!"

    seriously, I have started my crusade. I am full of the market situation that gives us just FPS and War Based RTS. During last month I have been mostly playing Roller Coaster Tycoon II. Excelent game without 3D engine (it has good old isometric engine with excelent palettized SVGA graphics.), Violence and any kind of guns.

    I don't have anything against 3D cards, I just can't stand that everyone is first looking how fancy rocket trails it renders in BazookaChase 9000(tm.)
     
  8. RussSchultz

    RussSchultz Professional Malcontent
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    I guess you've never upped the launch speed on the single loop coaster and shot your visitors into the lake.

    Not that I've ever done that. Twice. Or laughed while I did.
     
  9. Chalnoth

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    And the other question:
    Will ATI reduce the increase in technology with each product cycle, or lengthen their product cycles? This cannot keep going on forever. The technology processes just aren't moving quickly enough to keep up.
     
  10. CMKRNL

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    My information on NV40 is pretty vague, but it still says 2003.

    I think it's silly to underestimate nVidia. In another thread people were comparing 3Dfx to nVidia, and they're not even remotely in the same business position. On the one hand you had a company that was riding on earlier successes, failing to adapt to market trends, with no OEM presence, and on the other hand you have the current market leader with twice the revenue of its competitor, huge OEM marketshare, and aggressive R&D/product cycles. The NV30 delay and lack of DX8 level consumer part is hurting nVidia, but it's a minor setback. I predict that they will lose some marketshare, but will continue to be the dominant player in 2003.
     
  11. Nagorak

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    I honestly don't think Doom3 is going to make a damn bit of difference. Let's face it, FPS games are not mainstream. When the UT2003 demo was released it slowed network traffice down worldwide, yet it didn't spur any new sales. Doom3 may be slightly bigger, but it's not going to spur significant hardware sales either, IMO.
     
  12. Entropy

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    What is "significant"?
    In the industry, games are the technology driver, but don't necessarily matter much directly in the volume market sales.
    Offices, industry, administration, schools, much (most?) home use - all of these would be well served by less powerful machines than what are actually sold as baseline at, say, Dell.

    Games, and gamers dollars should be seen as trailblazers. DOOM3 will "make a damn bit of difference" because a significant portion of vocal computer users will look at their systems and feel that what was once fast is now slow, and are willing to spend money to do something about that feeling, money that goes into product development which later trickles down to the mainstream.

    A new version of Excel or even Windows doesn't do this anymore. It feels odd to say it, but I can't see Microsoft capable of developing an OS bloated enough to require 10 GHz processors to surf the web.

    So it is not so much that games are such a huge volume driver - they probably aren't, directly. It's more that they are almost the only technology driver left that has any decent volume at all.

    Entropy
     
  13. Nappe1

    Nappe1 lp0 On Fire!
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    well, actually... accidents happen... on RCT1 I had Steel RollerCoaster with max hil on top of max mountain and deepest valley after that... ;) 20 vertical G's...

    but fact is that Chris Sawyer said on latest interview that he don't like the idea putting intentional violence on games so that player's task would be hunting and killing. That's the reason why there isn't shooting gallery on shop and stalls list.
     
  14. Joe DeFuria

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    It wouldn't surprise me too much to see NV40 1 year from now. (Dec '03 / Jan '04). But it would surprise me to see a more traditional "Fall '03" launch of NV40.

    While I agree that nVidia's business position is completely unlike that of 3dfx's...I do have a few comments on some of the points you made:

    Not true. nVidia's revenue for Quarter ending Oct 31 was 430 million. ATI's revenue for Quarter ending Nov 30 was 322 Million. No where near twice the revenue....and ATI's revenue appears to be growing at a faster rate than nVidia's. (ATI appears to be closing the revnue gap, which is quite remarkable considering that ATI is still transistioning from board to chip supplier, which inherently drops their revenues.)

    IMO, ATI's product cycles are more aggressive than nVidias.

    I predict that 2003 will be seen as the year where market leadership began its transition from nvidia to ATI. Though nVidia will continue to be "a" dominant player. (Just not "the" dominant player in 2004.)
     
  15. Joe DeFuria

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    We had this discussion before.

    If we go by past history, process technology has had more of an impact on nVidia increasing their technology on a timely manner each cycle than ATI. nVidia has tended to rely on new process technology and new memory technology to drive their own tech, whereas ATI has shown a willingness to try and take matters more into their own hands...with 256 bit busses and 100 million transistor chips on 0.15...

    In any case, the near future shows a clear path for ATI...move to 0.13. Where it's not so clear for nVidia. (Perhaps move to low-k 0.13?).

    Maybe today's conference call will shed some light on ATI's future roadmap...
     
  16. Nagorak

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    I just don't really feel games make any impact on hardware sales. Sure, if games stopped advancing then no one would need a faster graphics card. But what I mean is Doom3 is targeted at a GF1, it will RUN on that. People who care about having fast hardware will already have upgraded before Doom3 even comes out. Those who don't, IMO, won't probably upgrade for Doom3.

    I can see what you're saying, and I'm sure some, even quite a few, people upgrade to play a new game. But I don't think it will have any noticeable impact on the bottomline of Nvidia/ATi.

    Hmmm...I hate to say it, but not having a shooting gallery is going to extremes. Shooting galleries aren't really violent, just fun and games...
     
  17. RussSchultz

    RussSchultz Professional Malcontent
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    Don't be so sure. My 400mhz XScale PocketPC chokes hard when web browsing. Of course, there's a large number of other factors involved, but never underestimate the power of legacy object orientated software to add to the bloat.
     
  18. CMKRNL

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    Not true. nVidia's revenue for Quarter ending Oct 31 was 430 million. ATI's revenue for Quarter ending Nov 30 was 322 Million. No where near twice the revenue.


    Yes, this quarter was stronger than expected for ATI and weaker than expected for nVidia (although I'm a bit cautious when a company changes accounting practices which significantly alters the numbers as ATI just did). However, if you compare revenues from the last fiscal year, I believe the numbers are closer to around $2B for nVidia and $1B for ATI. I don't think one quarter can tell the whole story, especially when ATI had a large advantage this past quarter due to nV's missed product cycle and positioning. I suspect a large reason for ATI's revenue increase was directly related to RV250 and M9 sales to OEM's where nVidia did not have a competitive product. This will change next quarter with the transition to RV350/M10 and the release of NV31/NV31M at the same time. Both very similar parts at similar price points with similar expected performance.

    Long term, I agree with you. I think ATI has a better story with a more diverse product lineup, particularly in the consumer area which will probably at some point (long term) account for the majority of ATI's revenue as the discrete graphics market progressively gets smaller. nVidia on the other hand does not seem to be pursuing any of these areas, which will undoubtedly hurt them in the long term. For the coming year however, I think nVidia will regain some of their lost momentum with the release of NV31(M).


    IMO, ATI's product cycles are more aggressive than nVidias.


    I think they're probably on par, with nVidia having a resource advantage. Lack of a DX8 consumer level part and the NV30 slip have definitely hurt nVidia, but they have a solid roadmap going forward.

    The point of the comparison was not to compare ATI to nVidia but to compare nVidia to 3Dfx. With 3Dfx you had a company with a failed OEM part (banshee), delayed product cycle, and lack of innovation. With nVidia you have a company that's screwed up strategically in the past 6 months, but are poised to be back on track in the coming months. Very different story IMO.
     
  19. Joe DeFuria

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    CMKRNL,

    We're pretty much in agreement on everything. ;)

    Although I think looking back one full year isn't as relevant as looking at just the past quarter or two. Mostly because ATI has been transistioning thier business model over the past year, and going forward (probably starting 2Q 2003), ATI and nVidia's product line-up and business struture should (we both agree) be pretty evenly competitive and more apples to apples.

    Agreed, and this trend should continue for the next quarter or so, as nVidia still lacks a competitive product in most discrete graphics chip areas. It won't really be until calendar Q2 2003 that RV350 and NV31 will start to make a financial impact for both ATI and nVidia, which is why I'm still "bullish" on ATI in the near term, and see ATI picking up some major ground.
     
  20. CMKRNL

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    Agreed, and this trend should continue for the next quarter or so, as nVidia still lacks a competitive product in most discrete graphics chip areas. It won't really be until calendar Q2 2003 that RV350 and NV31 will start to make a financial impact for both ATI and nVidia, which is why I'm still "bullish" on ATI in the near term, and see ATI picking up some major ground.


    Agreed, from a revenue perspective, nVidia is going to miss the upcoming quarter for the most part as well. I'm also bullish on ATI, especially long term. I just don't understand the anti-nVidia sentiment which seems to be very prevalent around here -- particularly the doomsayers. While one missed product cycle can kill a small company in a highly competitive market, it's just a temporary blow for nVidia. If they continued to miss product cycles, they'd be in trouble, but as it stands they've stumbled, but they will recover.
     

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