NPD October 2002

[marconelly!]

http://mail.chartermi.net/~spartan85/NPD_UBS.pdf

I found this quote interesting:

First, a disclaimer. NPD measures approximately 60% of retail sales in the U.S. and projects for the rest of the market. International sales are not reflected. We find that NPD is a good measure for market share, but dollar and unit numbers are often understated. This is a benchmark, nothing more. Now, on to the numbers…

So, NPD does claim they project for the rest of the market, like I thought, but their numbers are still understated. I guess we can put that out of the way now.

Hardware:
PS2 - 535,000 (57%)
XBX - 239,000 (25%)
GCN - 169,000 (18%)

PSOne - 134,000 (Year-to-date, PSOne sales are ahead of GC - 1.45 million vs 1.26 million)



Sega bundle has helped boost Xbox sales significantly. PS2 and GC have largely been flat since the last month (september sales for PS2 were revised / increased)

Software:
1 GRAND THEFT AUTO:VICE Take-Two PS2 1,412,429
2 NBA LIVE 2003 Electronic Arts PS2,XB,GC,PSX 340,033
3 MADDEN NFL 2003 Electronic Arts PS2,XB,GC,GBA,PSX 286,333
4 HITMAN 2: ASSASSIN Eidos PS2,XB 283,611
5 TONY HAWKS PRO SKATR4 Activision PS2,XB,GC,GBA,PSX 236,461
6 KINGDOM HEARTS Square/EA PS2 219,962
7 NEED SPEED: PURSUIT 2 Electronic Arts PS2,XB,GC 191,172
8 YU-GI-OH! ETERNAL Konami GBA 177,333
9 PS2 TIMESPLITTERS 2 Eidos PS2,XB,GC 168,605
10 PS2 NBA 2K3 Sega PS2,XB,GC 160,019

 

[Geeforcer]

Isn't Nintendo going to release some kind of CG bundle as well? Will that have a similar impact on GC sales as Sega bundle?

 

[marconelly!]

Mario bundle is already available, since 15th october, I think.

 

[Vince]

Thanks Marconelly!, good stuff:

Good month overall: Props of the Month definatly go to Microsoft for pulling away from Nintendo significantly.

 

[Ozymandis]

Wow. Look at Microsoft pulling up and away from Nintendo, and Ps2 looming over them both, heh.

There's little doubt who is going to have the US lead this holiday season, after the dust settles, between Xbox and Gamecube.

Doesn't seem like any of Nintendo's "big games" are helping them much in terms of hardware sales in the US market, does it?

 

[Teasy]

Metroid Prime will have a far bigger effect on GameCube sales then any GameCube game so far AFAICS. Allot bigger then Mario Sunshine (although wether it'll actually sell as well is another matter), you can see that just from the reviews so far. Some reviewers were disapointed with Mario Sunshine (I wasn't though) and this showed in its review scores and so its hype. So far Metroid Prime has 2 reviews, one from IGN and one from EGM, with a average score of 99% and with quotes like this:

The intense yet strategic combat of Halo. The ingenious level design and devious puzzles of Zelda's best dungeons. The intriguing story, moody atmosphere, and spooky thrills of Resident Evil. The new Metroid stands with the very best of modern games in almost every important respect. Well, except sound and graphics, where Prime surpasses them all.

The amount of time, skill, and dedication that obviously went into crafting and polishing this game just completely blows my mind. Videogames, regardless of what system they are for, just aren't supposed to sound this good, look this detailed, be this large in scope and this fun to play all at the same time; it's like the best title from six years in the future fell through a time warp.

"Whether you're new to the series or (especially) if you're an old fan with lofty expectations, Prime is better than you can imagine. An absolute masterpiece, a modern classic, and probably the most fun I've ever had playing a videogame"

The game is starting to get hyped (not just from reviews but also from being shown in stores and ads on TV). The interest level for this game on GameRankings.com has been rising after the first two reviews, as well as general interest in the game. If big mags like Edge and big sites like GameSpot follow with anywhere close to the praise of the first 2 reviews then hype will shoot through the roof.

We'll have to see, but I think given the look of this game (its got a cool look ala Halo) and the reviews and interest so far, Metroid Prime has a great chance of being GameCube's biggest title so far, both in quality and selling consoles.

 

[Ozymandis]

Metroid Prime will have a far bigger effect on GameCube sales then any GameCube game so far, allot bigger then Mario, you can see that just from the reviews so far.

You're setting yourself up for a disappointment Teasy, if you think that Metroid Prime is going to drive Gamecube's sales more than Mario did.

In my opinion, of course. I'm still really hyped about the game; heck, I might even take that night off from work to play it.

 

[Teasy]

So far Mario Sunshine hasn't upped consoles sales though (although I think it can sell consoles more at Christmas), why would you think a game like Metroid Prime won't do better?

Prime is a game that is likely to apeal to people who don't already own a GameCube much more then Mario Sunshine. Simply because of the look of the game, its "cool".

Also while Mario Sunshine had good reviews they were a let down for a Mario game, and while IMO Mario Sunshine itself wasn't a let down, reviews are a big part of building hype. So far Metroid Primes reviews have been awesome, some of the best I've ever seen. The hype IS already rising, I can see that from any forum I go to, as well as gamerankings interest meter and even people I know here in the U.K (were we haven't even had this game in stores, nor have we had ads yet).

I cannot tell how much this game may drive GameCube sales, but I'd say that it'll be more then SMS did, initially anyway, I still think SMS will drive sales closer to Christmas (November and December).

 

[Johnny Awesome]

I've been saying this for the past 9 months: Nintendo is in big trouble.

They're down to a 6.4% marketshare in software even. That's pretty bad when you're a 1st party on two platforms (GCN, GBA).

Mario has failed to drive hardware (as I've been predicting). At this point in it's lifecycle the Gamecube is only slightly ahead of Dreamcast in sales.

I think Nintendo can probably move another 750k units this year, but I doubt they'll ever get ahead of Xbox, which will sell at least 1 million. PS2 will probably sell at least 2 million.

A lot of people seem willing to take a chance on the 2nd place guy (Xbox), but I'm starting to wonder whether or not they're willing to take the same chance on the 3rd place contender (Gamecube). This could make it harder and harder for the Gamecube to compete sales-wise as time goes on.

It's going to take a lot more than an old-school platformers in new clothes (Metroid and Mario) to move Gamecubes.

With all that being said, I'll be getting my Metroid on Tuesday just like the rest of you. I just wish Nintendo would bring out games that the masses actually cared about.

 

[BoddoZerg]

At this point in it's lifecycle the Gamecube is only slightly ahead of Dreamcast in sales.

Ouch... if that's true.

What are the numbers for Dreamcast, compared to Gamecube, Xbox, and PS2?

 

[zurich]

I think Teasy has a point

Most people who bought Mario, already had a Game Cube. However, Metroid has a lot of appeal to PC Gamers, Xbox gamers, and just generally people (like myself) who hate Nintendo's traditional games (Mario, Zelda, etc), but may be open to other titles on the system.

In the case of Metroid, it was developed by Retro, and thus doesn't scream fairies and mushrooms

In anycase, MP is Nintendo's second chance to expand its usebase beyond its core fans. REmake was it's first, imo.

tszeurik

 

[Teasy]

I've been saying this for the past 9 months: Nintendo is in big trouble.

Heh, yeah right.

They're down to a 6.4% marketshare in software even. That's pretty bad when you're a 1st party on two platforms (GCN, GBA).

Where did you get that number from?

At this point in it's lifecycle the Gamecube is only slightly ahead of Dreamcast in sales.

Well its millions ahead of XBox, so were does that leave XBox then?

AFAIK DC only sold 10 million worldwide in its lifetime, GameCube could get close to that by the end of this year!

It's going to take a lot more than an old-school platformers in new clothes (Metroid and Mario) to move Gamecubes.

Did you also think it would take more then a, more of the same first person shooter with great graphics, to sell XBox?

People like you have said many times on this forum that Mario is not longer cool and it can't sell systems. You say that Nintendo needs something cooler, Metroid Prime has the cool look, and it has the hype coming as well. Now you try to dismiss Metroid Prime by saying its a old school platformer in new cloths, don't you have a better excuse then that for why you don't think this game will sell?

I think Teasy has a point

Don't I always?

In anycase, MP is Nintendo's second chance to expand its usebase beyond its core fans. REmake was it's first, imo.

I'm not sure about that, after all RE was a remake, I think a newer Res Evil will have a better chance. Eternal Darkness would have had a better chance, but it was too clever for allot of the "wow cool blood" morons out there

 

[BoddoZerg]

Someone please give numbers for cumulative sales for Xbox and Gamecube, compared to what Dreamcast and PS2 had... its annoying when everyone claims things like "GC is only slightly better than DC" or "GC has millions more sales than XBOX" with no numbers to back it up.

 

[Teasy]

Its hard to do that because no'one has total sales for Europe. The U.S looks like this for GameCube and XBox:

XBox = 4.7 million
GameCube = 4 million

That's using NPD sales + 35% on top since NPD is well known to be around that innacurate.

Japan is like this

XBox 350,000
GameCube 2.8 million

Based on the last sales I saw, so they could be higher by now.

We can only guess about Europe, but my guess is:

Xbox 700,000
GameCube 1.5 million

But that last bit is just a guess based on earlier European sales

 

[Johnny Awesome]

You should give some accurate numbers Teasy:

GCN - US - 3.7, JP - 2.6, EU - 800k
Xbox - US - 4.7, JP - 300k, EU - 600k
DC (Fall 2000) - US - 3, JP - 2.5, EU - 1

Ignoring Japan for a moment (where Xbox is a lost cause), Nintendo is having a hard time keeping up with Xbox. The new Euro numbers aren't in, but currently Xbox weekly sales numbers are 100% higher than Gamecube in the UK and likely up by a similar amount in the rest of Europe. Metroid can't save Nintendo in Europe this holiday, because it has been delayed until 2003. Splinter Cell on the other hand ...

Gamecube is falling behind in the western territories - currently about 1 million units behind Xbox and only about 500k ahead of Dreamcast at this point in the life-cycle. Not good.

 

[BoddoZerg]

I dont think those numbers show trouble for GC at all.

The Gamecube is not likely to go away anytime soon, Metroid and RE4 seem to be very good and if it actually has a "Halo 2 killer" then it is in good shape for 2003. A bad winter in Europe is no more likely to kill the Gamecube than its disastrous failure in Japan killed the Xbox. On the other hand, Xbox, no matter how bad the sales, will not go away. Given their history, Microsoft is likely to be willing to eat crow for many years in the future hope of a market-dominating Xbox2 or Xbox3.

Funny how those Dreamcast sales dont look very bad when put alongside Xbox and Gamecube... Or maybe I should say it the other way around - Xbox and GC both look terrible when you say they're selling like Dreamcast.

 

[Teasy]

You should give some accurate numbers Teasy

Care toy explain where you get your numbers from?

Then we have the Jap numbers, last time I checked at least a month ago GC's sales were already higher then 2.6 million (2.7 million AFAIR).

Your European sales number for GC make no sense. GC sold 400,000 at launch, now you think 6 months after launch its only at 800,000?

GameCube sold 75,000 of the 400,000 launch sales in the U.K. Since launch GameCube has sold 155,000 in the U.K alone (230,000 in total). So if the same U.K to the rest of Europe ratio as launch has kept up, and I don't see why it wouldn't have, then GameCube will easily be at 1.25 million sold in Europe. What reason do you have to believe that GameCube is only on 800,000 in Europe?

The new Euro numbers aren't in, but currently Xbox weekly sales numbers are 100% higher than Gamecube in the UK and likely up by a similar amount in the rest of Europe.

Xbox sales in the U.K increased by 45% for one week (GameCube rising 15% in the same week), putting XBox 3,000 ahead in the U.K for the first time since GameCube's launch. XBox sales in the U.K were not 100% higher then GameCube's even in that one week. Also the U.K counts for a huge amount of XBox's sales, has since launch, while it only counted for around 20% of GameCube sales at launch. We've already had this conversation, U.K sales do not tell the story of XBox's European sales.

Metroid can't save Nintendo in Europe this holiday, because it has been delayed until 2003.

XBox has been known to be losing month to month to GameCube since GameCube's European launch 6 months ago. Now because XBox outsells GameCube in the U.K (only a small part of the Euro market) for the first time ever you suddenly think XBox is king of Europe

Gamecube is falling behind in the western territories - currently about 1 million units behind Xbox

Your own numbers show XBox 800,000 ahead in the west, so why don't you just say 800,000 instead of about 1 million? Never mind, its totally untrue anyway.

 

[Eminem]

Xbox is surprizingly outselling PS2 3:1 in Germany. Might not be too accurate.

http://www.konsolen.net/news/news_detail.php?id=3034

 

[marconelly!]

Heh, that reminds me on that report from one store in UK, after the xbox launch, where the Xbox was apparently selling much better than the PS2

 

[bryanb]

What is the long term effect of giving away two games with every console? That will be the interesting question here.

Is Microsoft really expanding their console market share and the market itself? Or are the buyers of the XBox bundle not serious gamers, but very casually interested in trying out the concept cause they see a good deal and using the XBox to play DVDs? If those people don't buy more software, then the bundle is only harming Microsoft.

You have to balance the good with the bad. The bad effects of giving away two games has to mean fewer games get sold. Microsoft could seriously be poisoning the well simply to reap short term benefit.

Consider just how pissed off are the 3rd party driving game makers now that a free driving game is now going to every XBox. Long term that would kill or seriously wound the market for an entire genre on the XBox, although they are supposed to end the deal after the holidays. You think the makers of Need for Speed are pleased to see Sega GT shipping with XBox?

Also notice for the 3rd month running, the complete lack of XBox exclusives in the top 10. Blinx has really stunk up the joint. Many of the GameCube exclusives were in the top 10 in the previous months.

The GC is still easily leading in the EU. The only numbers we have are from the UK (showing the XBox and GC having sold equal amount) and that was always an XBox stronghold. The GC held a 800,000 to 500,000 lead just months ago based on information from Activision.

And if XBox maintains its lead in the US, and the negative effects of giving away games are not too troubling, then Nintendo will simply strike a deal and bundle Sonic Mega Collection and Luigi's Mansion.