NPD March 2018 (hardware in)

Rangers

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We have a new leaker on Era last couple months giving us hardware leaks promptly. So here they are for March. The full official media release (software charts) will be Tuesday.

https://www.resetera.com/posts/6991240/
https://www.resetera.com/posts/6991670/

We can get very good estimate for Switch because Nintendo told us it did 906k March 17 (launch month). So the others become easy to calculate.

PS4 354k
Switch 308k
Xbox One 299k
3DS 132k



Xbox still up YoY, +24% this month.

Leaker also left a software note

On the software side (digital not included):
By SKU, the top selling title was Far Cry 5 for PS4, followed by the same title for Xbox One. Kirby Star Allies (Nintendo) for the Switch took third place. By games, the top two titles in the month were Ubisoft's Far Cry 5 and Sony's (SNE) MLB: The Show, but combined, the two generated less revenue than last year's Zelda.

Digital not included makes the info incomplete. Anyways very good for MLB to place 2, I dont recall it being so high in the past.
 
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MS still has that non-official price drop going. During March the 500GB price was $50-$70 off MSRP looking at Amazon. It might be to move old product, they seem to be the only ones with a 500GB SKU still, Sony has moved to 1TB as far as I can tell and all the 500GB bundles from the holidays seem to be long gone.
 
Mat Piscatella with NPD group just left this comment on Era

One X is a big driver of Xone performance this year. That shouldn’t come as a surprise.

Me vindicated! (sorta etc etc etc disclaimer not really)

Also this is cool https://www.resetera.com/posts/7001690/

March sales history

3DS
March 2011 - 398,000 (launch month, or to be correct, launch week)
March 2012 - 225,000
March 2013 - 235,000
March 2014 - 159,000
March 2015 - 263,000 (the month after New 3DS launch)
March 2016 - 171,000
March 2017 - 111,000
March 2018 - 132,000


PS4:
March 2014 - 371,000
March 2015 - 330,000
March 2016 - 330,000
March 2017 - 397,000
March 2018 - 361,000

XB1:
March 2014 - 311,000
March 2015 - 229,000
March 2016 - 242,000
March 2017 - 244,000
March 2018 - 302,000

NSW:
March 2017 - 906,000
March 2018 - 308,000
 
Good numbers for PS4 and XB1 considering they're in their 5th years. Amazing that the PS4 is still 299 and is showing no signs of slowing down. Also great to see MLB charting so high, I also believe that is the highest it has charted before.

So XB1's streak of YOY increase continues in 2018. Based on estimated and leaked numbers, from January to March, it went from around +48% -> +44% -> +24%. The increase is probably due to a combination of XB1X, promotions, PUBG, and the release of SoT in March. I'm guessing the drop in YOY increase in March is mostly due to XB1X numbers starting to settle down to 'normal' levels, whereas it was still riding the launch hype in previous months. I still think XB1X will settle to around ~25% of sales.
Mat Piscatella with NPD group just left this comment on Era



Me vindicated! (sorta etc etc etc disclaimer not really)
I mean, if XB1X was 25-30% of XB1 sales, wouldn't you consider that a big driver? That doesn't really tell us much.
 
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Good numbers for PS4 and XB1 considering they're in their 5th years. Amazing that the PS4 is still 299 and is showing no signs of slowing down. Also great to see MLB charting so high, I also believe that is the highest it has charted before.

I mean, if XB1X was 25-30% of XB1 sales, wouldn't you consider that a big driver? That doesn't really tell us much.

I've been thinking lately a bit on just how successful the X1X has been. It's really created a glow of positivity that Xbox sorely needed. Even myself owning one, I notice I take almost a certain pride in it. It's like the cadillac of consoles, you know it will basically play the best version of everything, it's kind of expensive like an Apple product... almost something you can brag about owning. So yeah, basically I think it turned Xbox gen around to the extent that it has injected late positivity. So kudos to Spencer and I'm pretty certain he's learning (he said recently something about watching consumers reaction to x1x, I dont think he meant sales), and I doubt Xbox will ever be largely underpowered again.

For the percentages, I dont know. It's still weird we get zero leaks about that. I'd almost think some are trying to suppress that info. It isn't like MS couldn't give us a percentage though. I understand why they dont give numbers, people can seize on those as to how much better PS is doing, but a percentage in a vacuum hurts nothing. Maybe they will at E3 or somewhere.

But yeah if MS wanted to get serious about starting to win some sales races they need to bring X1X down to 399, while also introducing a powered up base console (2+ teraflops) and also price that lower than the current X1 vanilla too. It's nice to want things, I guess.

Anyways I believe in the long term power wins out, so as long as X1X reigns there it should continue to gain sales share. This fall should see the first discounts and bundling on X1X (just like the timeline for Ps4 Pro). Of course one day concrete information of PS5 will rain on that parade, but not yet, and not for the foreseeable short to mid term.

Although side note, I would think a lot of X1X buyers are upgrading from vanilla Xbox, so you're not actually increasing userbase. In the end that's not really any concern though, and the same could be said for Ps4 Pro.

But yeah the generation certainly is going to last 6 years, since PS5 cant reasonably arrive this fall. So longer than 5 year generation which only basically started last gen, continue.

It's funny towards the end of 360/PS3 generation I felt like they were so woefully underpowered vs state of the art at that time (512MB RAM in 2012-2013...phones had more!). It was really beginning to bother me. I dont feel like that this gen at all (yet). Even the base consoles still feel squarely modern vs the PC (maybe it's just me on that?). And I'm sure the mid gen refreshes helped them not feel outdated a lot. I'm not sure if PC GPU advancement has also slowed or what. The featureset in PS4/Xbox One vanilla GPU is still pretty modern.
 
I occasionally glance at Amazon.com's "Top 100 of 2018 (So Far)" list and their throw away "Best seller's list" this one represents whats currently trending (this list is probably useless). For the past ~3 months since mid February well before the recent God of War marketing push, PS4 PRO has been continuously slightly higher on both lists.

Now Amazon for whatever reason may be an outlier compared to other retailers, but Pro at least on Amazon.com is outselling XOX.

Amazon Best Sellers of 2018 So Far (Our most popular products of the year. Updated daily)
https://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2018/videogames/ref=zg_bsar_cal_ye
PS4 Pro sits at #57
Xbox One X sits at #61


Then there other lists which lean heavily towards whats trending this week/month:

The Throw away "best sellers" list:
Amazon Best Sellers (Our most popular products based on sales. Updated hourly)
https://www.amazon.com/best-sellers-video-games/zgbs/videogames/ref=zg_bsar_tab_t_bs#3
PS4 Pro #41
XOX #51
 
Even myself owning one, I notice I take almost a certain pride in it. It's like the cadillac of consoles, you know it will basically play the best version of everything...
You say, immediately after quoting someone say MLB, a platform exclusive baseball game, is charting high. ;)
 
I occasionally glance at Amazon.com's "Top 100 of 2018 (So Far)" list and their throw away "Best seller's list" this one represents whats currently trending (this list is probably useless). For the past ~3 months since mid February well before the recent God of War marketing push, PS4 PRO has been continuously slightly higher on both lists.

Now Amazon for whatever reason may be an outlier compared to other retailers, but Pro at least on Amazon.com is outselling XOX.

Amazon Best Sellers of 2018 So Far (Our most popular products of the year. Updated daily)
https://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2018/videogames/ref=zg_bsar_cal_ye
PS4 Pro sits at #57
Xbox One X sits at #61


Then there other lists which lean heavily towards whats trending this week/month:

The Throw away "best sellers" list:
Amazon Best Sellers (Our most popular products based on sales. Updated hourly)
https://www.amazon.com/best-sellers-video-games/zgbs/videogames/ref=zg_bsar_tab_t_bs#3
PS4 Pro #41
XOX #51
This also doesn't account for the other Pro SKUs. Along with the regular SKU, there's also the BF2 Pro bundle and the GoW Pro LE bundle. While these SKUs aren't huge sellers, they do negatively affect the standard SKU's rankings as people are opting for them over the standard SKU. XB1X OTOH only has one SKU.

Bestbuy and Gamestop's charts show similar results with Pro slightly ahead.

I think here in April, XB1X is nearing its baseline. I think Pro and X will go toe-to-toe in the US, but I see the PS4 topping XB1 overall. With PS4 selling more, XB1X will have a slightly higher share vs the base model compared to PS4/Pro.


But yeah if MS wanted to get serious about starting to win some sales races they need to bring X1X down to 399, while also introducing a powered up base console (2+ teraflops) and also price that lower than the current X1 vanilla too. It's nice to want things, I guess.
We might see a temporary price drop on the XB1X on BF, but I don't expect a permanent drop any time soon. The thing just launched 5 months ago, and they probably aren't profiting on it.

Anyways I believe in the long term power wins out, so as long as X1X reigns there it should continue to gain sales share. This fall should see the first discounts and bundling on X1X (just like the timeline for Ps4 Pro). Of course one day concrete information of PS5 will rain on that parade, but not yet, and not for the foreseeable short to mid term.
XB1 is gaining in the sense that they're up YOY and PS4 is not. But its YOY increase is trending downwards back to normal, not upwards. And they're still selling less than PS4. I don't see how you can look at the sales in 2018 and say MS is gaining market share.

It's funny towards the end of 360/PS3 generation I felt like they were so woefully underpowered vs state of the art at that time (512MB RAM in 2012-2013...phones had more!). It was really beginning to bother me. I dont feel like that this gen at all (yet). Even the base consoles still feel squarely modern vs the PC (maybe it's just me on that?). And I'm sure the mid gen refreshes helped them not feel outdated a lot. I'm not sure if PC GPU advancement has also slowed or what. The featureset in PS4/Xbox One vanilla GPU is still pretty modern.
Mid-gen refreshes + diminishing returns as far as visuals, I think are the main reasons why. I'm still satisfied, even with my base PS4.

I think PS5/XB2 will provide a very nice leap in quality from the CPU side alone. Ryzen chips should provide a huge boost over Jaguar. I'm hoping for more 60fps games.
 
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This also doesn't account for the other Pro SKUs. Along with the regular SKU, there's also the BF2 Pro bundle and the GoW Pro LE bundle. While these SKUs aren't huge sellers, they do negatively affect the standard SKU's rankings as people are opting for them over the standard SKU. XB1X OTOH only has one SKU.

Bestbuy and Gamestop's charts show similar results with Pro slightly ahead.

I think here in April, XB1X is nearing its baseline. I think Pro and X will go toe-to-toe in the US, but I see the PS4 topping XB1 overall. With PS4 selling more, XB1X will have a slightly higher share vs the base model compared to PS4/Pro.
Good points, I guess it shouldn't come as a surprise that alot of the consumer base is ignorant about how large a performance difference there is between PRO and One X. Most are not enthusiasts. Imagine if a videocard was 20% more more but offered 40% more mem bandwidth and 33% more shader performance. But exclusives matter, as do where their friends are, and the $100 price difference, and effective Sony marketing. This makes up for superior 3rd party visuals, sometimes smoother performance, and better services.

It's funny towards the end of 360/PS3 generation I felt like they were so woefully underpowered vs state of the art at that time (512MB RAM in 2012-2013...phones had more!). It was really beginning to bother me. I dont feel like that this gen at all (yet). Even the base consoles still feel squarely modern vs the PC (maybe it's just me on that?). And I'm sure the mid gen refreshes helped them not feel outdated a lot. I'm not sure if PC GPU advancement has also slowed or what. The featureset in PS4/Xbox One vanilla GPU is still pretty modern.
Business realities limit what devs will do with superior hardware. For the most part devs are limiting the work they do for more powerful hardware to more computationally demanding post processing effects and LOD deoptimizations which generally do not offer significant visual improvements.
 
I think it is remarkable how the last two generation of consoles price reductions have been super slow.
The PS2 saw multiple price reductions to the point where in less than 4 years it was sold at half the price of its original launch price ($299-$149)
The PS1 saw multiple price reductions and in year 2 it was also sold at half the price ($299-$149).
The PS3 launch price of course was super expensive at $599 for the 60GB model, and it was $299 in October 2012, 6 years after launch
The PS4 was released at $399 and after almost 5 years it is at $299
I guess similar price reductions are valid for MS, excluding special offers

Still sales have been quite healthy throughout.

Either costs are harder to reduce than before, or the launch price was already low for the last two generations if we consider the inflation, or console manufacturers care less about price wars and prefer to get some extra profit from the hardware since people continue to buy consoles at *higher* prices
 
XB1 is gaining in the sense that they're up YOY and PS4 is not. But its YOY increase is trending downwards back to normal, not upwards. And they're still selling less than PS4. I don't see how you can look at the sales in 2018 and say MS is gaining market share.

I guess its a slow down in the downward trend, which is a win. But being 20% of the 3rd place console is not really a lot of sales. It's more or a brand image win, despite 80% of new purchases being the same old underpowered XB1.
 
The mid-gen launch was expected to get a boost from upgraders which wouldn't be present in the second year. We are seeing that boost for ps4 in early 2017, and for xb1 in early 2018.
 
XB1 is gaining in the sense that they're up YOY and PS4 is not. But its YOY increase is trending downwards back to normal, not upwards. And they're still selling less than PS4. I don't see how you can look at the sales in 2018 and say MS is gaining market share.
It's not a closed pie. Owners of PS4 can buy an Xbox and vice versa. Thus, they both can continue to gain in market share. The number of purchasers that will own both can be for debate, and that's something marketers can figure out. It's clear that there are not 160 million individual players that can all be playing at the same time. There's likely a great deal of overlap here. As the prices drop for both consoles, we should see more cross over as the barrier for entry decreases and the library expands. At the beginning of the generation you won't see as much dual ownership so the idea of a fixed pie model makes more sense, but this later into the generation with the remaining 2-3 years to go, I expect to see a lot more cross purchasing.

If you're interested in fixed pie numbers, you need to compare PSN subscribers vs Live subscribers. You will have a few that will buy into both, but I doubt a margin great enough to be representative.
 
It's not a closed pie. Owners of PS4 can buy an Xbox and vice versa. Thus, they both can continue to gain in market share.

The bigger questions are these purchases (Pro/X) unique first time purchases? Meaning: Are the majority of X/Pro purchases from first time consumers, or current PS4/XBO owners upgrading? From what I seen and heard, the majority of Pro/X purchases are from current base users. GameStop trade-ins are very reflective of such purchases (i.e., XBO owners going for X and PS4 owners going for Pro).

If this is the case, the userbase between PS4/XBO aren't necessarily growing from first-time buyers, but only transitiong current users from one product to another (i.e., upgrade). Sure, a sale is a sale towards units sold. But not necessarily towards user-base growth. As I stated before, most Pro/X owners are either current or previous owners of PS4/XBO systems.
 
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The bigger questions are these purchases (Pro/X) unique first time purchases? Meaning: Are the majority of X/Pro purchases from first time consumers, or current PS4/XBO owners upgrading? From what I seen and heard, the majority of Pro/X purchases are from current base users. GameStop trade-ins are very reflective of such purchases (i.e., XBO owners going for X and PS4 owners going for Pro).

If this is the case, the userbase between PS4/XBO aren't necessarily growing from first-time buyers, but only transitiong current users from one product to another (i.e., upgrade). Sure, a sale is a sale towards units sold. But not necessarily towards user-base growth. As I stated before, most Pro/X owners are either current or previous owners of PS4/XBO systems.
Right now all 3 skus of Pro are on the amazon top 100. Almost certainly the GoW effect, but it's also impossible to differentiate:

1. upgraders who chose this time to upgrade to the Pro (new game launching with amazing graphics) but were unconvinced before.

2. new purchases who thought "I might as well get a Pro" and would still have bought a normal ps4 otherwise.

3. new purchases into the platform specifically because the Pro exists, regardless of GoW.

But at this point in time, my wild guess is there's more of #2 than anything else. The upgraders jump would be very concentrated in the first year.
 
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But at this point in time, my wild guess is there's more of #2 than anything else. The upgraders jump would be very concentrated in the first year.

Um, maybe. The XBO-X isn't close to being a year old, which would explain the high concentration of XBO trade-ins towards X. However, I'm still seeing a high concentration of PS4 users trading in towards the Pro. And I really haven't seen a high (or even a medium) exodus of PS4 users towards X, nor XBO users towards Pro.

If the majority of sales for Pro/X are newcomers or first-time buyers - I'm just not seeing it. What I do see: are most of these trade-ins and purchases coming from current PS4/XBO users looking to upgrade. And the more moderate and casual gamers still purchasing PS4/XBO systems more so than their beefier counterparts.

Mind you, I'm not saying unique newcomers and first-time buyers aren't purchasing Pro/X at all. What I'm stating; is that a higher concentration of current PS4/XBO owners are making these purchases (upgrades) from what I'm seeing.
 
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I think it is remarkable how the last two generation of consoles price reductions have been super slow.
The PS2 saw multiple price reductions to the point where in less than 4 years it was sold at half the price of its original launch price ($299-$149)
The PS1 saw multiple price reductions and in year 2 it was also sold at half the price ($299-$149).
The PS3 launch price of course was super expensive at $599 for the 60GB model, and it was $299 in October 2012, 6 years after launch
The PS4 was released at $399 and after almost 5 years it is at $299
I guess similar price reductions are valid for MS, excluding special offers

Still sales have been quite healthy throughout.

Either costs are harder to reduce than before, or the launch price was already low for the last two generations if we consider the inflation, or console manufacturers care less about price wars and prefer to get some extra profit from the hardware since people continue to buy consoles at *higher* prices


Was looking at old Toys R Us circular posted on twitter in memoriam. Anyways noticed the very high prices on carts, some less than $59, but some up to $69. But the SNES console itself was $129.

So in all these years software nominal pricing has not increased much (meaning with inflation it's effectively declined a great deal) but the entry price of hardware has, for whatever economic reasons.

Edit: found it

oLzmr0F.jpg
 
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Was looking at old Toys R Us circular posted on twitter in memoriam. Anyways noticed the very high prices on carts, some less than $59, but some up to $69. But the SNES console itself was $129.

So in all these years software nominal pricing has not increased much (meaning with inflation it's effectively declined a great deal) but the entry price of hardware has, for whatever economic reasons.

Edit: found it

oLzmr0F.jpg
Yes games were very expensive back in the day, but I wonder how much of that was actual profit and what was cost.
Those games were made on cardridges and came with thick manuals, unlike today's games.
Also economies of scale are much larger now, The video game industry grew exponentially compared to those "niche" days.

Btw are these dollar or UK prices? I wonder if taxation/duties also played some role.
 
It's the US model SNES, so definitely US prices. That brochure is quite late in the game for SNES, late 96 or early 97, so after the N64 and PS1 were in the market already. N64 launched at $199 so SNES probably wasn't a huge seller at $129 at that point and could not have a higher price than that.
 
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