Nokia's Present & Future

Deal was approved by the shareholders.

Nokia as handset business is no more.

It'll go down as the fastest destruction of capital and patrimony in an European company ever.

 

Being asleep at the wheel never ends well ...

 

Being asleep at the wheel and then changing the driver to someone who intentionally floors it into a concrete wall is probably worse.

 

Thread resurrection!
Now that Nokia's phones are part of Microsoft, etc. perhaps it's time to revisit the theories about the relative wisdom and current health of Nokia's decisions to put all its eggs in the Windows basket.

The latest is that Nokia's former phone division saw a quarterly decline in revenue from €2.77 billion to €1.93 billion with losses increasing from €120 million to €326 million. So their sales decreased 30% while their loss on phones nearly tripled.

Good thing Nokia dumped it while they could. Shame that one of the best phone manufacturers is gone owing to not having a multi-tiered OS strategy...

 

To give it some proper perspective.

So, Smartphone volume was up. Basic (feature and dumb phones) volume was down. And ASP is down.

ASP being down is expected as volume increases on low end smartphones. Which also happens to affect the entire smartphone market. IDC is forecasting lower ASP across the board for smartphones for 2014. (http://www.icharts.net/chartchannel/smartphone-average-selling-price-asp-os-usd-2012-2018_m3puyi9fc). Windows Phone has a larger drop than others due in part to the fact that their low end presence isn't as established as the other players. Meaning, even if the price of their phones in each segment doesn't change, their ASP will drop as volume on low end smartphones continue to ramp up.

So, that bit doesn't really affect MS so much as it's the smartphone part of the mobile phone business that they are interested in. The basic and feature phone side of it was what hurt the most. ASP dropping there combined with decreasing volume wasn't good as that was already a well established market for them.

What is more concerning for Microsoft is that while their sales share (YoY) continues to rise in most parts of the world (Europe, African, S.America, and Asia Pacific), they have stalled in the US with slight regression and have completely failed to catch on in the Chinese market. (http://macdailynews.com/2014/04/28/...one-market-share-in-q1-windows-phone-falters/) Although, I have also seen reports that their share has been flat (Comscore) or increased in the US.

Gartner's report won't be out until next month. That should shed more light on the global situation.

Also what is extremely interesting is that Microsoft is now selling and actively developing an Android line of Nokia phones. The first being the Nokia X. Android OS with a WP like UI combined with Microsoft services. (http://www.engadget.com/2014/04/29/nokia-x-review/ )

Just in case that hasn't sunk in. Microsoft is using Android for some of their phones.

Regards,
SB

 

Eh, is that.. is that a good thing for Microsoft?

And it kinda looks like Nokia X is Android in the same sort of sense that J++ was Java.

 

It's more like Amazon version of Android. Although it doesn't come with play store (it uses Nokia own store), you can install play store if the phone rooted.

 

I'm thinking that the Android lumias (or whatever they call them) are short-timers.

 

Apparently Elop is Nadella's second in command at MS.

Sure looks like some kind of a reward.

 

There's an alternate scenario where MS might be playing around with allowing for its universal app paradigm to also apply to Android.

It's entirely hypothetical. But imagine the attraction to developers if they could write a universal application that runs on Windows desktop/table, Windows Phone, Xbox One...and Android.

Microsoft gains access to more applications. Android developer's basically get instant portability to all Microsoft devices.

Granted, this is highly unlikely. But could plausibly happen. As such an Android based Lumia device could allow them to play around with that idea.

Again, highly unlikely. But fun to think about.

Regards,
SB

 

The Android line has been axed.

 

Yup that makes the most sense. And is likely what most expected. But it's fun to go out on a limb sometimes and try to imagine some of the more "out of the box" things that could have been done with that product.

With the change in power at Microsoft, there's a lot of shuffling going on. I have a feeling the MIcrosoft a year or two from now is going to look fairly different than the Microsoft from a year or two in the past. And I have a feeling the new powers that be won't be nearly as successful as the people they forced out.

Regards,
SB

 

Was looking at the SONY Xperia Z3 but then I read about this from Nokia. It's been out for almost a year and the unlocked 32GB "international" non-ATT crippled version is less than $500 and has built-in induction charging....hmmm. Yep it's huge but I'd just use it like a mini tablet instead of like a small phone.

 

I wouldn't buy right now. We should see some new nokia phones next month I believe. So at the very least the price should drop a bit.

 

Thanks for the advice eastmen..that's what I'll most likely do. I just switched over to T-mobile and doing the monthly thing with no contract and using my old Iphone so I'm in no hurry. Only thing I wish the Lumia 1520 had was 60fps video recording at 1080p although 30fps is acceptable.

As for Nokia, I think they are doing great if they are getting my attention and my money for my next big smartphone purchase. I've been an IOS user for a long time but I think Nokia and Windows 8 phone is starting to look like a very good alternative. This really all started when I recently built my new computer running Windows 8.1 and realized how much I liked the "Live Tiles" UI.

Anyway the two Nokia phones that I was seriously looking at was the Lumia Icon and this 1520. Also I didn't even know the 1020 has a 41 megapixel camera and optical image stabilization! I really like the design of these Nokias as they look great backed by great technology and don't look like an Iphone clone like many of the other phones from Samsung, LG, HTC etc.

Such a nice looking design.

 

yea , i'd love to get a new windows phone but I get a special ex sprint employee plan and I only pay $40 for unlimited everything and for some reason there is no nokia on sprint. MS really needs to get that fixed.

But yea its time for the new high end stuff to hit. The only reason I can see it delayed is if they are going to do a unified launch of Threshold early next year.

 

I too had planned on getting the new Iphone 6 via Sprint's $50/month unlimited everything plan but when I saw what the phone actually looked like I changed my mind and starting to look at the SONY Xperia Z3 which is said to be coming to T-mobile this month. When I visited the T-moble store to get my micro SIM and prepaid card I saw the Nokia 635 which looked pretty sweet and it only cost $130 unlocked with no contract at the Microsoft's online store. That's when I saw the ICON/930 and then the 1520. Rumors say there will be a 1525 coming out soon. Would be sweet if they bumped up the framerate to 60fps 1080p and 120fps 720p in their highend phones.

Been doing a little more investigating and there's also rumor that Microsoft/Nokia will be releasing a highend model in Nov which will have a unique "proximity" interface.... This will allow a user to hover their finger over a tile and press it without actually touching the screen...interesting. It is said the technique uses similar technology to Kinect. I hope this is true and Microsoft goes further with this technology to allow other proximity gestures like pan/zoom which I've suggested as a future evolution of the familiar "touch" controls that we've been accustomed to in the Iphone thread. If Microsoft gets this to work well then they've just beat Apple to a new type of UI for mobiles. Samsung and Panasonic already have similar not contact gesture navigation built into one or more of their phones but I'm hoping Microsoft takes it to another level.

 

And why is hovering better than touching?

Guess it would rule out one handed operation. You'd need to hold the phone with one hand and use the fingers on the other hand to hover over rather than touching.

Fingerprints are a big problem?

 

Hovering allows selecting anything on a large screen without having to physically move your finger to that position to touch it. It's like being able to use your thumb as a non-contact pointer. It would work great for one handed typing too. Also since hovering is 3D it has much more potential than 2D touch.

 

hovering will be crap for selecting things (too many false positives or non positives), but could work for scrolling a page.
One handed usage?
I might start a new post about this