Nokia's Present & Future

Discussion in 'Mobile Industry' started by Arun, Dec 22, 2010.

  1. ToTTenTranz

    Legend Veteran Subscriber

    Joined:
    Jul 7, 2008
    Messages:
    10,001
    Likes Received:
    4,574

    None of you actually looked at the date the article was written, did you?

    The article was made as a reaction to the MS+Nokia exclusivity announcement.

    BTW, what exclusivity agreement was ever made between HTC (former Qtek IIRC?) and Microsoft?
    HTC never stopped making windows devices. It's just that Android sells so much more.
     
  2. Snyder

    Regular

    Joined:
    Feb 10, 2002
    Messages:
    609
    Likes Received:
    8
    Location:
    Vienna, Austria
    Please stop. No - they weren't "failing quite hard", definitely not from a business POV. The last five quarters before the memo in q1 2011 they had increasing YoY revenue each quarter and not a single quarter in losses.
    After the memo they hat a 30-50% decrease in YoY revenue EVERY SINGLE QUARTER. And don't even get me started on the losses. _That's_ "failing quite hard".
     
  3. ToTTenTranz

    Legend Veteran Subscriber

    Joined:
    Jul 7, 2008
    Messages:
    10,001
    Likes Received:
    4,574
    I gave up on speaking out those facts because there are 3 or 4 users in this thread who will just repost the "Nokia was already doomed since the iphone" motto again, again and again until someone eventually believes in it.

    I'm just warning you not to waste your time and effort as much as I did. It's worthless.
     
  4. warmi

    Newcomer

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2008
    Messages:
    100
    Likes Received:
    0
    If things were going swimmingly at Nokia .. why did they even bothered bringing Elop onboard ?
     
  5. Mariner

    Veteran

    Joined:
    Feb 6, 2002
    Messages:
    1,604
    Likes Received:
    243
    Pfft. Who has time to look at the dates of articles these days? :razz:
     
  6. ToTTenTranz

    Legend Veteran Subscriber

    Joined:
    Jul 7, 2008
    Messages:
    10,001
    Likes Received:
    4,574
    Is there only black or white in this world?

    Nokia was making money, increasing amounts of it, until February 2011.
    At the same time, Nokia was losing great amounts of marketshare. Not necessarily because Nokia was selling less, but because the smartphone market was rising exponentially and new users seemed to prefer androids and iphones.

    So yes, a change had to be made.. at least regarding the internal competition of OS development teams that proved to be poisonous in the mid/long run and the tremendous flaws they had with slipping deadlines consecutively.

    But whatever was happening at Nokia was nowhere near the total clusterfuck that was to yell at the world they don't believe in their own product (insulting all their customers and developers at the time), scrap every OS development they had at the moment and become exclusive to a mobile OS that, in February 2011, had already proven to be a commercial flop. All this in exchange for peanuts, compared to the company's revenues at the time.

    Of course, this post is going to be quoted by the same people with the same old arguments saying "everything was doomed since the iphone no matter what and microsoft was their best chance because money".
    It'll be quoted about 3 times with the same written stuff, making my post seem somehow false.

    So as I said, it's worthless.
     
  7. wco81

    Legend

    Joined:
    Mar 20, 2004
    Messages:
    6,204
    Likes Received:
    264
    Location:
    West Coast
    Elop may not have deliberately tried to sabotage Nokia and make its value plummet.

    But it's funny that's how it worked out isn't it? Must be a coincidence that MS could buy NOK for much less than they'd have had to pay before Elop.

    And Elop may get rewarded as CEO of MSFT. What is that about? He presided over the destruction of a lot of value and he gets rewarded with a cushy gig at MS, even if he isn't installed as CEO?
     
  8. french toast

    Veteran

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2012
    Messages:
    1,667
    Likes Received:
    9
    Location:
    Leicestershire - England
    This is my main point, you sumed it up in less words than I.
    Elop presided of a catastrophe, 60% created soley by him, so why then would one of the worlds top companies install him as ceo? (or at least publically endorse the idea)

    If you chuck out the microsoft hostile takeover rumours and look at it objectively it makes no sense what so ever.
     
  9. zed

    zed
    Veteran

    Joined:
    Dec 16, 2005
    Messages:
    4,447
    Likes Received:
    632
    Is that true? Perhaps a graph will be nice with a line showing when who joined
     
  10. Xmas

    Xmas Porous
    Veteran Subscriber

    Joined:
    Feb 6, 2002
    Messages:
    3,299
    Likes Received:
    137
    Location:
    On the path to wisdom
    I think at least Samsung is doing fairly well selling the hardware.

    But what do you count as platform profit? I guess Google earns some money on Play licensing and sales as well as increased ad revenue. Amazon expands their reach with Kindle tablets but what part of content sales can be attributed to those devices alone? The same has to be asked for iTunes, while Apple's App Store profit is fairly small compared to device profit IIRC.

    In my opinion Microsoft will have to invest a lot before they can either sell high margin phones in huge numbers or attract the kind of user that's willing to spend a lot on content. It's possible they'll rake in a lot of money eventually, I just wouldn't bet on it.
     
  11. Silent_Buddha

    Legend

    Joined:
    Mar 13, 2007
    Messages:
    16,162
    Likes Received:
    5,098
    Eh? What exclusivity deal was ever made between MS and LG? None. LG was already making Android phones when they started to make WP devices.

    Palm and MS? None. See above.

    Nortel and MS? None.

    So what does that have to do with leaving out one of the most successful WinMo companies ever? A company that had incredible growth as a company due entirely to Microsoft and WinMo?

    Oh wait, because that would taint the whole point of that article which is to imply that all Microsoft mobile phone partners failed because of Microsoft, which isn't true at all.

    And totally neglected to mention that Nortel and Palm didn't fail due to any partnership with Microsoft.

    You could argue that Microsoft should have been better prepared for iOS smartphones, but the only company that could respond in time was a company that had NO mobile phone OS on the market at the time the iPhone hit the market. Which means out of all the companies they could actually respond relatively quickly as they could change the direction of their OS before it hit the market. And even then Android just barely managed to hang on long enough to get enough carriers pushing them, and a good enough OS revision to finally compete with iOS on even footing.

    Microsoft, Blackberry, Nokia, etc. had a much harder time responding due to having entrenched mobile phone OS's.

    Imagine if Apple had allowed other hardware makers to license iOS? iOS would be the Windows of the mobile phone world. And Android at best would be the Mac or Linux of the mobile phone world.

    Regards,
    SB
     
  12. Helmore

    Regular

    Joined:
    Apr 5, 2010
    Messages:
    466
    Likes Received:
    0
    I get the feeling that you guys are blowing Elop's chances of becoming MSFT's CEO a little out of proportion. Yes, Ballmer admitted that Elop was one of the candidates to become CEO. We don't have any idea how many other candidates there are. A handful? Dozens? They never said anything about Elop's chances of becoming CEO.
     
  13. wco81

    Legend

    Joined:
    Mar 20, 2004
    Messages:
    6,204
    Likes Received:
    264
    Location:
    West Coast
    Even being installed in charge of the Devices devision seems a step up.

    His compensation could be much higher at MS than at NOK.
     
  14. Mintmaster

    Veteran

    Joined:
    Mar 31, 2002
    Messages:
    3,897
    Likes Received:
    87
    Yeah, going down a dead end path that most other manufacturers were bailing on because it had no future. You call it a cash cow but it was no more of one than the SUV craze was for GM. They went after it that lucrative market with more commitment than any other automaker until it died and left the rest of their product line in shambles.

    I suppose you want to blame Elop's memo for the fall of RIM as well?
    [​IMG]

    How about WinMo too?

    What do you think was more likely? Elop's memo being wholly responsible for Nokia's downfall and BlackBerry/WinMo coincidentally falling at the same time? Or late 2010/early 2011 simply being the turning point for all traditional OSes to become obsolete in the face of iOS and Android?

    Even if they went with Android, every dollar and man hour invested in their new OS developments was a lost cause. Continuing the GM analogy, the OS development they had was like GM's Saturn line. It had to stop, as it had no future. Don't mention Tizen or WP by Samsung, because they are insignificant to Samsung's success and are side projects from a company swimming in profits. So stop bringing up the diversification point. It does more harm than good.

    And those $250M/quarter "peanuts" were more than several Android makers were getting.

    Have you even considered that maybe there's some truth to that when it's abundantly clear that going all in with either WP or Android were the only two options with any realistic chance of success?

    And that the middling fate of so many Android OEMs - all of whom had a huge headstart on Nokia - made that choice unappealing to them?

    No? The conspiracy theory makes more sense to you than that? Fine, believe what you want.
     
  15. french toast

    Veteran

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2012
    Messages:
    1,667
    Likes Received:
    9
    Location:
    Leicestershire - England
    Even swapping straight to android would have been more successfull imo.
     
  16. Dominik D

    Regular

    Joined:
    Mar 23, 2007
    Messages:
    782
    Likes Received:
    22
    Location:
    Wroclaw, Poland
    And they seem to be the only ones. ;)

    The more crowded market gets, the lower their margins on HW are going to be. Their safest bet is app store and 30:70 split they have, IMO.

    I think they'll get there - they're serious about staying in the game. But sure, it will take time and monies to become profitable.
     
  17. tuna

    Veteran

    Joined:
    Mar 10, 2002
    Messages:
    3,142
    Likes Received:
    361
    No, everything would be exactly like the Windows Phone eco system, meaning that the device manufacturers would not be able to innovate.
     
  18. Xmas

    Xmas Porous
    Veteran Subscriber

    Joined:
    Feb 6, 2002
    Messages:
    3,299
    Likes Received:
    137
    Location:
    On the path to wisdom
    The chance of success was slim either way. But there was a third option: do neither. Basically they could have chosen the situation they're in now, except earlier, with more negotiating power and money.


    App Store revenue is slim compared to device revenue. People don't spend anywhere near as much on software as they do on hardware. HW margins don't need to be particularly large to exceed 30% of that.
     
  19. Snyder

    Regular

    Joined:
    Feb 10, 2002
    Messages:
    609
    Likes Received:
    8
    Location:
    Vienna, Austria
    Elop joined as CEO in Sep. 2010, the burning platforms memo was in Feb. 2011.

    http://www.nokia.com/global/about-nokia/investors/financials/reports/results---reports/
    Not a nice graph, but everything's in there.

    And for a rough overview:
    http://www.heise.de/newsticker/meld...Umsatz-weg-Lumias-ein-Lichtblick-1919818.html

    In german, but the numbers should be clear (revenue left, profits right). (Oh, and FYI the single quarter with a loss before Q2/2011 had nothing to do with the handset business, but was due to huge write-offs regarding the Network division).
     
    #2239 Snyder, Sep 6, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Sep 6, 2013
  20. Snyder

    Regular

    Joined:
    Feb 10, 2002
    Messages:
    609
    Likes Received:
    8
    Location:
    Vienna, Austria
    Regarding the charts:
    The WinMo is disingenuous at best...it only shows a steady YoY decline from the start.
    So we have a single datapoint. With a company whose primary markets are(were) completely complemetary. (RIM: Traditionally strong in NA, Nokia: market leader everywhere else). Where both companies faced different epic blunders of their own.
    So...no, I don't see any argument here that it was simply a sharp turning point to sudden obsolescence that no one could have averted at least for, say 1 or 2 years while executing a transition strategy, however that may look like.

    That car analogy...AARGH. If you want it to be an analogy that at least somewhat fits, it would have to look like this: GM announces the Saturn line (without having a single car design ready to show) and at the same time announces that their other lines are "burning platforms" and they are going to discontinue all of them in the near future. Sounds crazy, doesn't it?

    Have you ever considered that this doesn't have to be a conspiracy?
    Don't attribute to malice what can be attributed to stupidity.
     
Loading...

Share This Page

  • About Us

    Beyond3D has been around for over a decade and prides itself on being the best place on the web for in-depth, technically-driven discussion and analysis of 3D graphics hardware. If you love pixels and transistors, you've come to the right place!

    Beyond3D is proudly published by GPU Tools Ltd.
Loading...