Next Generation Hardware Speculation with a Technical Spin [post E3 2019, pre GDC 2020] [XBSX, PS5]

[mpg1]

So basically Sony wants to be able to "go last" in terms of announcing next-gen pricing but investor relations might fuck them....funny..

I seriously wonder now if this why they have we have not have had a PS5 event yet? I mean if they are nervous of investors asking questions about PS5 that could lead to analysts accurately guessing the price then they are sure as hell are not going to talk any specs anytime soon...

 

[anexanhume]

Takashi Mochizuki at Bloomberg is more credible than likes of ZHugeEx as Mochizuki who was at WSJ before is most likely talking firsthand with Sony employees for that article unlike those analysts doing armchair speculations or talking with secondary sources. In his Japanese tweet,

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1228179309157703683

Mochizuki says the sentiment shared by all the "people with knowledge of the matter" in the article was "Would like to watch how Microsoft would act. Don't want to stimulate Microsoft." Who don't want to stimulate MS other than Sony employees?
One interesting nugget he put in the following tweet is the Sony IR Day in May, which didn't exist in the PS4 launch year, is what is currently making people at Sony nervous as analysts may be able to guess the price of PS5 depending on how much info Sony would disclose at that event.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1228292974569611264

The Sony earnings forecast at the end of April last year showed no increase of marketing cost in the term ending at the end of this March, so some analysts predicted no PS5 marketing launch would happen before April 2020.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1228292976255782913

Are you sure? You may compare the heat dissipated by RTX 2080 and RTX 2070 Super.

He’s regularly mischaracterized executive quotes and made odd conclusions. He also said switch pro was coming in 2019.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1146509901004451840

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1146509903781126144

 

[Xbat]

Analysts stuff shouldn't be in this thread I don't think, most the time they bloody wrong anyways.

 

[RDGoodla]

Is the cooling system really that cheap? Bloomberg says typical cooling system costs less than 1 dollar, and PS5 uses an unusually expensive solution at a few dollars.

Moreover, the Bloomberg article seems to hint Samsung is the main supplier of PS5 DRAM and NAND. There are several manufacturers which can provide GDDR6 and NAND why SONY can’t find a reliable supply?

 

[Shifty Geezer]

The Bloomberg article shouldn't be discussed in this thread as its pants.

 

[Rootax]

In his latest video, GN (gamer nexus) said that the cooling solution for the ps5 won't be cheap, but he can't tell us why yet (not to burn his sources ?). Steve is pretty reliable imo, so...

 

[anexanhume]

In his latest video, GN (gamer nexus) said that the cooling solution for the ps5 won't be cheap, but he can't tell us why yet (not to burn his sources ?). Steve is pretty reliable imo, so...

My guess is that he’s seen the inside of the dev kit, or spoke directly to someone who has that he trusts.

 

[mpg1]

Even though I'm on team "Oberon is PS5" I still can't get past the high clocks. For me 1.6GHz is around the max I would expect either of these consoles.

If they are able to pull off 2GHz in a console then AMD must have pulled a rabbit out the hat in terms of silicon optimization.

That or it's a combination of silicon optimization AND 7nm+ AND using a premium cooling system AND probably still have sub-par yields.

 

[MrFox]

My guess is that he’s seen the inside of the dev kit, or spoke directly to someone who has that he trusts.

He's also well connected to official sources. Maybe he reached for comment and got an off the record info about cooling, but was asked not to say. Hard to tell since he's being so vague.

The old sony patent about cooling through the PCB is still interesting. The machining necessary to pull it off would be expensive, and production would be slow.

 

[anexanhume]

The old sony patent about cooling through the PCB is still interesting. The machining necessary to pull it off would be expensive, and production would be slow.

Why do you think that to be the case? I don’t think the machining would necessarily be more complex. Just a slightly more complicated assembly process.

 

[Mskx]

Ooh, i want to speculate too!
Maybe for their cooling solution Sony contracted some company that normally does work for the enthusiast PC market where GN has lots of connections.
Or they are buying up components/materials needed for their solution and other companies hear about/are affected by it, which then finds itself back to GN.

 

[MrFox]

Why do you think that to be the case? I don’t think the machining would necessarily be more complex. Just a slightly more complicated assembly process.

Normal heatsinks main plate are extruded (cheap, fast) and the surface just roughly levelled (cheap fast).

In order to make a heatsink primary surface with a bunch of 1mm segments going through the PCB, they need it CNC machined. It will have to remove a lot of metal. The intricate machining of the little labyrinth parts need a very small routing bit. Those need to go slow, and need to be replaced extremely often. They go dull quickly and break often.

Unless maybe they just fill the pcb holes with copper bits and put thermal paste on it all. Or maybe they could braize the little bits on top? I don't know what's possible nowadays.

If they only do straight lines instead of the complex tetris-like parts we see on the patent, they can use saws which are fast and efficient.

 

[anexanhume]

Normal heatsinks main plate are extruded (cheap, fast) and the surface just roughly levelled (cheap fast).

In order to make a heatsink primary surface with a bunch of 1mm segments going through the PCB, they need it CNC machined. It will have to remove a lot of metal. The intricate machining of the little labyrinth parts need a very small routing bit. Those need to go slow, and need to be replaced extremely often. They go dull quickly and break often.

Unless maybe they just fill the pcb holes with copper bits and put thermal paste on it all. Or maybe they could braize the little bits on top? I don't know what's possible nowadays.

If they only do straight lines instead of the complex tetris-like parts we see on the patent, they can use saws which are fast and efficient.

The patent describes various ways of accomplishing it, with paste filled holes or solid through holes. Either way, I imagine the finstocks will be two completely separate assemblies that are screw fastened from opposing sides.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Or they are buying up components/materials needed for their solution and other companies hear about/are affected by it, which then finds itself back to GN.

Vibranium and adamantium.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

In order to make a heatsink primary surface with a bunch of 1mm segments going through the PCB, they need it CNC machined. It will have to remove a lot of metal. The intricate machining of the little labyrinth parts need a very small routing bit. Those need to go slow, and need to be replaced extremely often. They go dull quickly and break often.

Wouldn't a laser be a better option?

 

[Shortbread]

In his latest video, GN (gamer nexus) said that the cooling solution for the ps5 won't be cheap, but he can't tell us why yet (not to burn his sources ?). Steve is pretty reliable imo, so...

That "V" shape isn't for 5. It's for cooling two different SoCs...

 

[Deleted member 13524]

In his latest video, GN (gamer nexus) said that the cooling solution for the ps5 won't be cheap, but he can't tell us why yet (not to burn his sources ?). Steve is pretty reliable imo, so...

Just watched that snippet.
The wording he used, "GN knows some of the reasons for the cooling cost increase" alludes to more than one factor.
So it could be Sony trying to clock the iGPU higher than what we'd assume and needing large amounts of copper fins in the heatsink, could be due to a very wide iGPU, could be from adopting that heatsink sandwich in the patent, could be watercooling.. or it could be a combination of these.

Well one thing I'm fairly hopeful about is the fact that BGs said his studio is expected to show PS5 demos at GDC (March 16-20), so that should put a hard deadline on when to expect news about the console.

 

[MrFox]

Wouldn't a laser be a better option?

Not sure but I don't think laser cutting works without cutting completely through and with a very thin laser (like 0.1mm). Trying to remove material halfway through the thickness would just make a blob of molten aluminum.

 

[anexanhume]

Not sure but I don't think laser cutting works without cutting completely through and with a very thin laser (like 0.1mm). Trying to remove material halfway through the thickness would just make a blob of molten aluminum.

That matches my understanding. Lasers are good for cutting or etching. Not so much for machining.

 

[Shortbread]

That matches my understanding. Lasers are good for cutting or etching. Not so much for machining.

Well, yes and no. Depending on the LBM process being used, lasers can be very effective with aluminum machining and somewhat nitpicky with copper depending on the laser power & wavelength being applied.