Next Generation Hardware Speculation with a Technical Spin [2018]

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Nothing.

I view 16GB of RAM as disappointingly low amount that would not enable creating of dramatic new nextgen experiences.

Why? What do you think they need more ram for? I can understand more bandwidth but for the price of RAM these days I just don't see the need. More computational power is much more important in my opinion as long as they have the bandwidth to feed it.

Ram always was the big limiting factor at the end of the previous consoles life cycle but is it still? Are devs struggling with the RAM in current consoles ?
 
Hard to compare pc hardware because a consols specs are set, so more likely the higher will be programmed for.
Which higher will be programmed for? Out of two consoles, a $600 powerful one and a $400 weak one, the one that sells most will be targeted by devs. The other machine will get ports. It's basic economics and has always been this way and there's no reason to think devs would change. So assuming the $600 is being outsold 3:1 or worse, are devs realistically going to increase their development budgets 50% to target this machine optimally where it makes a quarter of their sales, or are they going to focus on the best experience on the low end machine and knock out a 'free' high-end port just upping res and framerate?
 
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At this point I think MS are already planning a multi tier SKU launch as Phil Spencer kinda hinted at E3. I believe Scarlet will have a Base model of 12 TF 16gig ram ($399) along with a 15 TF 32 gig ram monster ($549) for the enthusiasts. While Sony probably wouldn't subsidize as much hardware as MS so they might go something in between say 14 TF 24-32gig ram PS5 ($449-$499 depends on ram).
In any case the most depressing thing would be a 10 TF weaksauce that wouldn't even run Anthem at native 4k / 30fps if it takes two 1080 ti to run 4k 60 fps.
 
At this point I think MS are already planning a multi tier SKU launch as Phil Spencer kinda hinted at E3. I believe Scarlet will have a Base model of 12 TF 16gig ram ($399) along with a 15 TF 32 gig ram monster ($549) for the enthusiasts. While Sony probably wouldn't subsidize as much hardware as MS so they might go something in between say 14 TF 24-32gig ram PS5 ($449-$499 depends on ram).
In any case the most depressing thing would be a 10 TF weaksauce that wouldn't even run Anthem at native 4k / 30fps if it takes two 1080 ti to run 4k 60 fps.
30 fps with reconstruction, lower overhead, way more optimization by launch, even more for consoles. Less than ultra settings.
It will run. The problem that most people seem to forget is that PC runs the absolute highest settings most of which are inefficient and offer marginal improvement on the output at a substantial impact to performance.

You don't need these specs to run this game. It's going to be significantly different by the time launch rolls around.
 
30 fps with reconstruction, lower overhead, way more optimization by launch, even more for consoles. Less than ultra settings.
It will run. The problem that most people seem to forget is that PC runs the absolute highest settings most of which are inefficient and offer marginal improvement on the output at a substantial impact to performance.

You don't need these specs to run this game. It's going to be significantly different by the time launch rolls around.
Yup and games three years into next gen even if they only 12 TFlops will look much better than Anthem.
I agree, it's just when you hear the mighty 1080 ti getting trivialized in such a way your heart sinks a little. And to think next gen console is around its ballpark performance, we really should pray for top notch console optimization.
Not that I think Anthem is anything mind blowing tho, I'm pretty sure native coded next gen titles would easily smoke it graphically.
 
True, but just think of how the PS360 punched above their weight with ~512MB when PC's were rocking a few GB's. And how this generation's shitty CPU's have been worked around.

There'll be a shortcoming next generation, and it'll probably be memory. But a minimum of 16GB won't be so bad, as long as there's enough bandwidth, and the OS doesn't take up too much of it.
 
Yeah I have a hard time envisaging either Sony or MS launching at >$399, both bear the scars from prior attempts to shift the bubble (remember the 'so good you'll get a second job' comments? good times Sony, good times). I think we need to remember that the mass market doesn't know, or frankly care, what is possible, whatever gets launched will be the "new thing" and if the new thing is 50% more expensive than the time they bought the old thing they will stay away in droves. I've spent far too much of my life reading about economics not to understand that $399 today is worth a lot less than $399 6-8 years ago but most folks (quite reasonably) don't give a flying one and will simply tell little Johnny no (or tell themselves no with a sigh because they know Johnny is starting football next week and goddam how are kits for a 10 year old so expensive? etc etc).

I can't think of a feature that $200 more than the competition will enable that can blow away the $399 vs $599 argument. We're not dealing with a lot of money here and while the folks on this board can and will call out half res buffers, 2 x mip mapping, etc none of those are the kind of things that lend themselves to a 30 second tv spot or YT pre-roll (especially YT, god that video IQ is muck). The only thing that maybe qualifies is a nice bit of NVMe but it's hard to make a compelling ad from "wait 20s less per load" compared to "$399 vs $599", I can see a lot of folks deciding that their time isn't that valuable and those who do will simply fired an SSD in after the fact as they do today
 
The only thing that maybe qualifies is a nice bit of NVMe but it's hard to make a compelling ad from "wait 20s less per load" compared to "$399 vs $599", I can see a lot of folks deciding that their time isn't that valuable and those who do will simply fired an SSD in after the fact as they do today
If I were in charge of marketing and had an SSD system versus an HDD rival, I'd do a better job than that! SSD is the first system to ever have next-gen storage. Doing away with the magnetic HDD which is based on 1950's technology, our new blazingly fast storage solution, based on the same performance technology as used in everything from supercomputeres to Hollywood graphical workstations to NASA engineering laboratories, allows more information and more game per second than ever before, up to 100x faster than magnetic storage. Devs finally have the room and speed hitherto unreachable to create compelling, living worlds, that learn and grow as you do; worlds where enemies think faster and cities bustle faster and race-tracks speed past faster and intergalactic space can be traversed faster. Only on <Console Brand>!
 
failure rates are lower on SSD right?
or am I wrong on this?
It's complicated because the causes of failures are so different between the two. My unscientific experience with large arrays in servers is pretty much the same failure rate between ssd and hdd. SSD fail instantly without any corellation. HDD start having a few read errors retries, and then bad blocks being remapped, and it's found very early by the controller, before it actually fails. SSD works perfectly and then out of nowhere it's bricked.

But SSD are very tolerant to vibrations and impact, so I supose in the consumer space they are much more reliable.
 
At this point I think MS are already planning a multi tier SKU launch as Phil Spencer kinda hinted at E3. I believe Scarlet will have a Base model of 12 TF 16gig ram ($399) along with a 15 TF 32 gig ram monster ($549) for the enthusiasts. While Sony probably wouldn't subsidize as much hardware as MS so they might go something in between say 14 TF 24-32gig ram PS5 ($449-$499 depends on ram).
In any case the most depressing thing would be a 10 TF weaksauce that wouldn't even run Anthem at native 4k / 30fps if it takes two 1080 ti to run 4k 60 fps.

Did he really? Unless I’m incorrect, Spencer’s hint was just using the next Xbox in the plural form. What exactly did he say that makes you think multiple xbox configs at launch versus over a gen like we have now?
 
Yeah I have a hard time envisaging either Sony or MS launching at >$399, both bear the scars from prior attempts to shift the bubble (remember the 'so good you'll get a second job' comments? good times Sony, good times). I think we need to remember that the mass market doesn't know, or frankly care, what is possible, whatever gets launched will be the "new thing" and if the new thing is 50% more expensive than the time they bought the old thing they will stay away in droves. I've spent far too much of my life reading about economics not to understand that $399 today is worth a lot less than $399 6-8 years ago but most folks (quite reasonably) don't give a flying one and will simply tell little Johnny no (or tell themselves no with a sigh because they know Johnny is starting football next week and goddam how are kits for a 10 year old so expensive? etc etc).

I can't think of a feature that $200 more than the competition will enable that can blow away the $399 vs $599 argument. We're not dealing with a lot of money here and while the folks on this board can and will call out half res buffers, 2 x mip mapping, etc none of those are the kind of things that lend themselves to a 30 second tv spot or YT pre-roll (especially YT, god that video IQ is muck). The only thing that maybe qualifies is a nice bit of NVMe but it's hard to make a compelling ad from "wait 20s less per load" compared to "$399 vs $599", I can see a lot of folks deciding that their time isn't that valuable and those who do will simply fired an SSD in after the fact as they do today
What about the hypothetical scenario where they release two consoles, one for $399 and another more powerful model for $499? Nothing crazy, just a bump in GPU power and maybe HDD storage. While I agree with you, a part of me would still be disappointed if they didn't offer a build targeting a higher budget.
 
How much more GPU power would they get though for extra $100 ? It's not like there's a new node they can use. It would have to come from binned parts running at higher clocks.
 
How much more GPU power would they get though for extra $100 ? It's not like there's a new node they can use. It would have to come from binned parts running at higher clocks.

If we assume a similar BOM to the PS4, an extra $100 would net double the SoC.

Had the PS4 launched with two tiers, an extra $200 could have delivered a 3.68TF console with ~16GB of GDDR5.

It's that more substantial gap in price that I'd like to see, and I think it would enable both fast market penetration with a $350 >1080p box, and, with a $550 4K box, access to a more lucrative playerbase who make spending on games a part of their monthly budget.

Moore's law's buggered, and architectural/node improvements can't keep pace with previous generational models. A mid-generation model is clearly viable, giving a generation more time to breathe, which is desirable for publishers, developers, and platform holders. A two tier launch would alleviate the need for a hasty release of a mid-generation console, and aid in lengthening the generation.

I only see 2 tier as a good thing. The only downside is that one of those boxes won't sell as well as the other, but a user's a user.
 
If we assume a similar BOM to the PS4, an extra $100 would net double the SoC.

Had the PS4 launched with two tiers, an extra $200 could have delivered a 3.68TF console with ~16GB of GDDR5.

It's that more substantial gap in price that I'd like to see, and I think it would enable both fast market penetration with a $350 >1080p box, and, with a $550 4K box, access to a more lucrative playerbase who make spending on games a part of their monthly budget.

Moore's law's buggered, and architectural/node improvements can't keep pace with previous generational models. A mid-generation model is clearly viable, giving a generation more time to breathe, which is desirable for publishers, developers, and platform holders. A two tier launch would alleviate the need for a hasty release of a mid-generation console, and aid in lengthening the generation.

I only see 2 tier as a good thing. The only downside is that one of those boxes won't sell as well as the other, but a user's a user.
Silicon doesnt scale like that, unfortunately. The bigger it is, the more chips in the wafer will be deffective, so you will have worse yields and each functional chip will cost much more than just double. Twice the budget for the silicon, will actually buy just a couple dozen extra % in performance. And that is ignoring the fact a bigger chip will consume more energy and dissipate more heat, making many other parts of the machine more expensive too.
 
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How much more GPU power would they get though for extra $100 ? It's not like there's a new node they can use. It would have to come from binned parts running at higher clocks.
Well I was thinking we don't know how much they will have to scale back on CUs or clock speeds to reach that $399 price point. So it would be difficult to tell what they can do with an extra $100. Is that not the case?
 
If we assume a similar BOM to the PS4, an extra $100 would net double the SoC.

Had the PS4 launched with two tiers, an extra $200 could have delivered a 3.68TF console with ~16GB of GDDR5.

It's that more substantial gap in price that I'd like to see, and I think it would enable both fast market penetration with a $350 >1080p box, and, with a $550 4K box, access to a more lucrative playerbase who make spending on games a part of their monthly budget.

Moore's law's buggered, and architectural/node improvements can't keep pace with previous generational models. A mid-generation model is clearly viable, giving a generation more time to breathe, which is desirable for publishers, developers, and platform holders. A two tier launch would alleviate the need for a hasty release of a mid-generation console, and aid in lengthening the generation.

I only see 2 tier as a good thing. The only downside is that one of those boxes won't sell as well as the other, but a user's a user.
Biggest room for improvement with the ps4 was clockspeed, and the os eating up so much memory. Better cooling with some ddr3 chucked in there for the Os so the whole 8gb (or perhaps just 2gb ddr3 so 7gb) was available would've been great. Perhaps they could've done that for $449.

No way you would've seen performance like the 7970 or 16gb gddr5, both were completely impossible for a consumer box at the time. Nor would it have needed so much memory..
 
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I wonder if it would ever make economic sense to have a lower-end SKU to allow for salvaging parts with minor defects and conversely having your flagship SKU fully enabled with all functional units instead of disabling some on every chip to improve yields.

Edit: And you could then also drop SoC/memory clocks as well to create a little more of a performance spread with the lower end SKU and save a little money on power and cooling to better enable the lower cost.

I'm still not sure it makes overall sense, but there may be more merit in the idea than is apparent at first thought.
 
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