MS talks Xbox and the future with GameSpot

[Acert93]

Interesting article that gives a lot of info on where MS sees themselves and where they want to go:

http://hardware.gamespot.com/Story-ST-9399-1395-x-x-x

There are a lot of references to "5 years" for the life cycle, and even a statement that they do not need to be to market before PS3, but they just cannot let them get another 18mo headstart.

 

[London Geezer]

Interesting article that gives a lot of info on where MS sees themselves and where they want to go:

http://hardware.gamespot.com/Story-ST-9399-1395-x-x-x

There are a lot of references to "5 years" for the life cycle, and even a statement that they do not need to be to market before PS3, but they just cannot let them get another 18mo headstart.

That's cool, but they seem to forget that the 18M headstart has now become a 50M black hole of a gap. So yeah, there was a headstart, but if things were done properly, they could have at least maintained the gap what it was, 18M. Instead it became more than twice that number.

Oh well, we'll see what happens.

 

[wazoo]

That's cool, but they seem to forget that the 18M headstart has now become a 50M black hole of a gap. So yeah, there was a headstart, but if things were done properly, they could have at least maintained the gap what it was, 18M. Instead it became more than twice that number.

Oh well, we'll see what happens.

Lots of people do buy the leading console just because it is the leading platform yielding more sales to the leading platform.

 

[London Geezer]

That's cool, but they seem to forget that the 18M headstart has now become a 50M black hole of a gap. So yeah, there was a headstart, but if things were done properly, they could have at least maintained the gap what it was, 18M. Instead it became more than twice that number.

Oh well, we'll see what happens.

Lots of people do buy the leading console just because it is the leading platform yielding more sales to the leading platform.

I think it's got more to do with the fact that the leading console usually gives the impression that it will be supported better than the non-leading one(s). No one likes it when support is dropped overnight. We saw that happening in the past and it's just not nice.

 

[cthellis42]

I've noticed most people buy it when it's convenient and ignore it when it's not, depending on the point they're trying to make.

The ACTUAL point, of course, is that there are whole lot more factors in play.

 

[Johnny Awesome]

It's safe to say that if Xbox launched at the same time as PS2, with a little more thought into its engineering, that Sony would still have won, but it would have been a lot closer. I'm thinking instead of 78 million to 18 million, more like 63 million to 33 million.

It's almost like some of his comments suggest Xbox 2 in spring 2006 (at the same time as the PS3 Japanese launch). This would give MS a 6 month window in the US and they could probably launch in Europe for the holiday season. Not bad, except that the Xbox lineup seems a little thin on 1st party software (Forza, Jade Empire, Conker) being the only standout titles. But there will still be plenty of third party stuff and a price drop to carry Xbox through the year.

Interesting...

 

[London Geezer]

The thing is that even GT4 on PS2 will steal a lot of the limelight, considering it will come out just in time for the Xbox2 launch (i predict, it would be clever of Sony to do so, the game is not gonna be released anytime soon anyway so...).
Then Sony will sneakily show us "previews" of "how the next gen GT/FF/MGS/GTA game will look like" and that will be the end of the universe. You know what they're like.

 

[cthellis42]

It's safe to say that if Xbox launched at the same time as PS2, with a little more thought into its engineering, that Sony would still have won, but it would have been a lot closer. I'm thinking instead of 78 million to 18 million, more like 63 million to 33 million.

Of course then you open the "which console would actually perform better" hypotheticals, and the "who would cost more/less" and the "would the Xbox still have bundled everything it did" which affects all the other hypothetical numbers all the more.

Head-ache inducing, I tell ya.

 

[Tuttle]

So where are these 16 million (33 million - 17 million) consumers? What is stopping them from driving to the store today and buying an xbox today?

You don't gain installed base by just showing up.

Maybe I've been through these console cycles too many times, but I honestly can't see how people can continue to talk seriously about 'launch strategies.' Company A plans to launch before Company B 'to get a jump/head-start' Or Company A is going wait for Company B to 'make them show their cards'

Useless bullshit.

Either the developer/publisher support is there for a console or it isn't. Either the IP/franchises/titles are there that console consumers want or they aren't.

 

[Inane_Dork]

That's cool, but they seem to forget that the 18M headstart has now become a 50M black hole of a gap. So yeah, there was a headstart, but if things were done properly, they could have at least maintained the gap what it was, 18M. Instead it became more than twice that number.

Nah, I don't think MS had a shot at keeping the margin at what it started at. Sony carried strong momentum from the PS1 over to the PS2 and then built on it. MS spent million getting their own momentum going, and only this year have we seen it reach decent levels. But between already having momentum and building on it before MS started building momentum, MS stood no chance at equaling Sony.

You're basically asking for a race between two guys, but guy A has a 50 m headstart as well as a running start. And you want guy B to maintain distance?

 

[zurich]

GS: Will there be a slimmed-down version of the Xbox, like the PlayStation 2 redesign?

CF: I don't think so. You never say never, but it's a pretty major, massive engineering undertaking, and I'm not sure that the bang for the buck is necessarily there. The reality is that no matter what we did to the Box, there's still a hard drive in there. Sony may actually get a slimmed-down one, and, oops, they don't support the hard drive anymore. It's a little strange, and that's not something we could ever get away with, so I'm not sure if the bang for the buck would be there with our current architecture. But you never know.

Notice how he didn't _rag_ on Sony for dropping the HD, while _praising_ the Xbox for having one? Based on this, it really does seem like the NextBox will be HD-less.

 

[Spidermate]

GS: Will there be a slimmed-down version of the Xbox, like the PlayStation 2 redesign?

CF: I don't think so. You never say never, but it's a pretty major, massive engineering undertaking, and I'm not sure that the bang for the buck is necessarily there. The reality is that no matter what we did to the Box, there's still a hard drive in there. Sony may actually get a slimmed-down one, and, oops, they don't support the hard drive anymore. It's a little strange, and that's not something we could ever get away with, so I'm not sure if the bang for the buck would be there with our current architecture. But you never know.

Notice how he didn't _rag_ on Sony for dropping the HD, while _praising_ the Xbox for having one? Based on this, it really does seem like the NextBox will be HD-less.

As once heard by an active member, Sony took the path by first testing the waters before diving all the way in. It is why it was so easy for them to drop the HDD without any major risks behind it to cut cost. To simplify that, if an add-on fails, only IT will be the one to take the lost (allowing it to easily be removen) as the overall product continues its momentum where it left off. However, including these things into a product will make the entire package that much more open to failure if it doesn't do as well or if it is cut back to save money. This, in my opinion, was a major mistake on Microsoft's part. They were so focused on developing the perfect, powerful console that they became blinded to the risks behind it all -- causing them to return to the drawing board.

Cutting something like the HDD back, or even replacing it as an add-on, is crucial. Hopefully their flash drive will make-up a small portion of the lost if they do decide to cut back.

 

[wco81]

I remember hearing about that book by Dean Takahashi. Supposedly, they did have a design they could launch with in 2000. But it would have been technically inferior to the PS2, which already had enough hype going for it.

So the decision was to wait for superior performance. Supposedly Gates said they would need 2 or 3 times the performance before they should launch.

On the HDD, Kaz Hirai has been talking about how online would be more integral to the next-gen., not just some luxury. But they don't talk necessarily about subscriptions for matchmaking but "micro-payments" to download extra characters, levels, cars, etc.

So where are they planning to store all this stuff? On 2 GB Memory Sticks?

 

[Spidermate]

Maybe that's why they want to keep the HDD -- as an add-on,of course.

 

[cthellis42]

I assume everyone's keeping the benefits of hard drives well in mind and keeping them as a route that can be expanded to. I also think they're all trying to figure out a way to best take advantage of it while not simultaneously opening themselves up to easy piracy, which is pretty hard...

 

[AlNom]

How expensive are those tiny harddrives anyway? (like the really small ones)

 

[AlNom]

How expensive are those tiny harddrives anyway? (like the really small ones)

 

[cthellis42]

Ask Apple. They're going through them like crazy.

 

[one]

The HDD price = iPod - a puny LCD - a plastic case - an IC to play MP3 off the HDD

At least over 80% of the entire iPod price I assume.

 

[Johnny Awesome]

I disagree with you Tuttle. The market is more complex than that.