Merrill Lynch Downgrades nVidia to "sell"

[WaltC]

http://biz.yahoo.com/rc/030929/tech_nvidia_stocks_2.html

Thought this was interesting but not unexpected. The going's getting rough for nVidia these days. I'll say one thing about Merrill Lynch analysts, they were one of the few last year who stated that nV30 wouldn't see volume production until the April-May timeframe of '03 (after a supposed sit-down with nVidia suits last year.) Of course, they didn't get it right about nV30 being canned, but that's not their fault.

 

[Sazar]

I had not realised ati's market cap was so much greater than nvidia's...

certainly a shock to me...

 

[ZoinKs!]

This could be what it takes to finally cause a management shake up at nVidia. Clearly, the company hasn't been led well for quite some time. If dropping stock prices aren't a wake up call, I don't know what is.

 

[OpenGL guy]

This could be what it takes to finally cause a management shake up at nVidia. Clearly, the company hasn't been led well for quite some time. If dropping stock prices aren't a wake up call, I don't know what is.

They're still up a lot from their 52-week low of $7.20.

 

[Arun]

NVIDIA management isn't in its right mind.

Their communications sucks.
Their employees miss the free caviar parties they had a few years ago.
Their company is being seen more badly by analysts every passing day, and I expect other analysts to announce similar moves in the near future.
Their workforce is getting as much BS as the enthusiasts
Their PR doesn't know WTF is going on and thinks they're in great control.
Their recent DR attempts failed, Cg anyone?
Their next-generation chip looks good, but still got fundamental weaknesses against ATI - I don't quite think it'll be a homerun either, although nowhere as much of a disaster as the NV30.

But of course, everything's alright, ain't it, David Kirk? Ain't it, Dan Vivoli? Informing the board of directors of the problems doesn't make sense - after all, if I don't understand what's going on, why should I say some BS to management? Do I really want to get fired that bad, or what?

There's no such thing as a mistake here at NVIDIA - we've got a perfect track record. Really. Kinda. Maybe. Okay, maybe not, but we still want you to believe it. Eh.

Okay, so I'm exagerating, but I'm pretty serious too: the mess at NV right now ain't of the prettiest IMO.


Uttar

 

[Sazar]

NVIDIA management isn't in its right mind.

Their communications sucks.
Their employees miss the free caviar parties they had a few years ago.
Their company is being seen more badly by analysts every passing day, and I expect other analysts to announce similar moves in the near future.
Their workforce is getting as much BS as the enthusiasts
Their PR doesn't know WTF is going on and thinks they're in great control.
Their recent DR attempts failed, Cg anyone?
Their next-generation chip looks good, but still got fundamental weaknesses against ATI - I don't quite think it'll be a homerun either, although nowhere as much of a disaster as the NV30.

But of course, everything's alright, ain't it, David Kirk? Ain't it, Dan Vivoli? Informing the board of directors of the problems doesn't make sense - after all, if I don't understand what's going on, why should I say some BS to management? Do I really want to get fired that bad, or what?

There's no such thing as a mistake here at NVIDIA - we've got a perfect track record. Really. Kinda. Maybe. Okay, maybe not, but we still want you to believe it. Eh.

Okay, so I'm exagerating, but I'm pretty serious too: the mess at NV right now ain't of the prettiest IMO.


Uttar

I would never have guessed

 

[CorwinB]

That doesn't spell good for NV, although they still have some resources and time to make a comeback... A few years ago, I thought that technology on its own could beat analysts, but TDFX demise got that part right for me.

 

[Pete]

Uttar, your post stands in stark contrast to my initial reaction at this thread's news, that this downgrade is really a way to sucker small investors to sell their shares so that nVidia and Merril Lynch and other connected parties can scoop them up at cheap prices, knowing nV's next gen will stack up much better.

Call me a cynic.

 

[Arun]

Uttar, your post stands in stark contrast to my initial reaction at this thread's news, that this downgrade is really a way to sucker small investors to sell their shares so that nVidia and Merril Lynch and other connected parties can scoop them up at cheap prices, knowing nV's next gen will stack up much better.

Call me a cynic.

Yeah, maybe you're right.
I better move fast and e-mail some analysts about how much NV sucks so they get downgraded Just kidding.

But it's pretty clear that if a company gets used for that type of things, it's not top notch anymore. If everybody agrees NV is gonna go tremendously well and there are no risks at all in their stock, it wouldn't be very reasonable to do this type of move IMO.

Analysts don't really know anything either. A few weeks ago, I had one e-mailing me to ask whether the NV36 was made at IBM or not ( Even though everybody said that, including me, for fifty years everywhere, but I guess that's the way it is nowadays )


Uttar

 

[micron]

Damn Uttar....are things goin' ok?

 

[just me]

Sure puts IBM in the cat-bird seat ... Doesn't surprise me in the least & won't surprise me when IBM 'acquires' the GPU side of nV.

ATi has the hardware/driver support & is working on the 'partners/distribution' that it really needs. XGI has the mfg facilities & the 'parent company' connection$ to partner$. IBM has the engineers/tech to redesign the hardware, mfg facilities, PR, marketing, distribution & support all tied up. They don't need 'partners' or a$$i$tance.

nV has nothing. They don't have the necessary DX9 hardware or the mfg facilities. Partners are 'iffy' & there's no 'parent' corp to fall back on. BFG was supposed to be the NA distributor, but they can't mfg fast enough. Support? Their drivers have told that story.

I wish them luck in the mobile phone market, but SiS, Nokia, Motorola & others aren't gonna roll over or be muscled out of that market. If they don't watch out > VIA, ALi &/or SiS (dare I say IBM again, too?) will take the AMD mobo chipset market back too.

All > IMO & time will tell. 8)

 

[Arun]

Damn Uttar....are things goin' ok?

Well, having pretty much quit the GPU community already, I can't lose anything anymore. So whatever I say, no matter if I lose credibility on it, I won't lose anything to it.

That means I can just say what's on my mind, instead of trying to look reasonable and logic. Damnit, don't you guys know I am, or at least do my best to be, that already?
If you don't, again, I couldn't care less


Uttar

 

[tazdevl]

Damn Uttar....are things goin' ok?

Well, having pretty much quit the GPU community already, I can't lose anything anymore. So whatever I say, no matter if I lose credibility on it, I won't lose anything to it.

That means I can just say what's on my mind, instead of trying to look reasonable and logic. Damnit, don't you guys know I am, or at least do my best to be, that already?
If you don't, again, I couldn't care less


Uttar

Good to see you become totally objective now Uttar. Welcome to the club.

David Kirk had so much spin on his converation with FS I got dizzy.

I'm surprised we haven't seen more downgrades. On the other hand, it'll be interesting to see what happens over the next week with ATI, especially considering the Asus announcement.

 

[WaltC]

Uttar, your post stands in stark contrast to my initial reaction at this thread's news, that this downgrade is really a way to sucker small investors to sell their shares so that nVidia and Merril Lynch and other connected parties can scoop them up at cheap prices, knowing nV's next gen will stack up much better.

Call me a cynic.

Heh... Pete, cynic is not the word--at least from nVidia's point of view your sentiment would be considered extreme optimism....

 

[RussSchultz]

Personally, I distrust analysts' recommendations completely.

I've seen them rate a buy so they can dump; I wouldn't put it past them to rate a sell so they can stock up.


I'm not saying that's what's going on here, but I'd be selling my stock (if I had any) from my own personal reasons, not because an analyst say 'sell'