Is Gamecube in peril?

[Johnny Awesome]

Disclaimer: I own a Gamecube with Eternal Darkness, Super Mario Sunshine, Starfox Adventures, and Metroid Prime. I love the system and hope it gives me 4-5 AAA games every year for the next 3 or 4 years. Zelda is one of my most anticipated games of 2003.

I think that Nintendo's attempts to capture interest amongst the late teen early twenties crowd have failed. Sure, there's a contingent of older hardcore gamers that purchased the system for nostalgic reasons, but I think that Nintendo is going to have to refocus on their core demographic for the rest of this generation.

When the December numbers come in, I think they're going to reveal the obvious: That Nintendo lost out to Xbox in just about every country outside of Japan this Christmas, possibly by as much as 2:1 in some areas of the world. Microsoft's ability to absorb losses has removed one of Nintendo's big advantages: price. The Xbox bundles really hurt the Cube.

Third party software outside the traditional Nintendo demographic has sold pretty poorly. Sure, Sonic and Harry Potter did fine, but EA/Sega Sports did horrible on Cube. So did most of the supposed Mature titles like Eternal Darkness. RE did "ok", but that was mainly due to the same hardcore nostalgia crowd that I spoke of earlier.

It's all personal opinion, but that is how I feel about the Cube right now. Nintendo would be wise to refocus their efforts on keeping their core userbase from the N64. More GBA link-up games. Pokemon tie-ins. A new Donkey Kong game. Concentrate on games that will sell well both in Japan and western markets to take advantage of their relative strength at home. Stick to their 3-5 AAA first party games per year philosophy from the N64.

It's a bit of a shame, but Nintendo's greatest strength: Miyamoto, is perhaps their greatest weakness. His reluctance to apply his genius to titles that might appeal to mainstream late teens/early twenties US gamers is what is holding Nintendo back from mainstream success in that market.

Nintendo is smart enough to save the Gamecube and propel it to 30+ million sales, but they'll have to act decisively and quickly if they want to make it happen. They should probably form a new 1st party studio for making games on PS2/Xbox that are "mature" in focus. This would allow them to gracefully transition to just being a third party by early 2006.

 

[Legion]

when you say peril as in Nintendo will suffer and have to cancel the gamecube? Hardly.

I believe they will cruiz along. I don't think they will suffer badly because of a lack of software lineage for next year.

 

[Blade]

They have no lack of software next year, Legion.

I see Xbox staying ahead of GCN in the US for the foreseeable future.. but I doubt that GCN will lose any significant ground in the States unless people decide to totally disregard the dozens of exclusive beauties scheduled for GCN next year.

Johnny: Heh, you love these games yet you seem to be their biggest critic. Tough love, huh?

I really think you're exaggerating the situation. Nintendo retreading the mistake-filled ground of N64 would worsen GameCube's market condition.. not help it. Personally, I think that Nintendo has had a little trouble getting back on their feet with the 3rd-parties after the N64 fiasco.. but they've made steady progress and 2003 will show this in a far better light than 2002 did. Don't get me wrong, I think 2002 has probably been Nintendo's best year of releases in almost half a decade.. but 2003 is going to bury it. 1st-party franchises, new and old, will be out in full force.. and then we have a 3rd-party onslaught perhaps unlike any other in company history.

If the Big N can't deliver in 2003, then it's over for them.. and they know it. That's why you'll see 'em pulling all of the stops; if they want to stay in this fast-paced console race, they need to kick it up a notch. Bam! 2003 looks very promising, and should deliver. 'Course, there's probably going to be a lot of heavy competition.. this is probably gonna be Xbox's biggest year too.

Man, I'm glad I own both systems.

 

[Ozymandis]

...the dozens of exclusive beauties scheduled for GCN next year.

Blade, exaggerate much?

 

[Blade]

Ozy: Heh, think about it. Capcom 4 + pretty much whatever Nintendo releases + every good/great game announced + every great unannounced game (there are lots.. outside of Q1 we know almost nothing) = dozens of beauties.

If people can exploit the weaknesses of the 'Cube, I can exploit its strong points.. can't I?

 

[Brimstone]

I still don't fully understand why they sold Rare. I think some of the X-Box's sale surge was due in part to this. At least with people that own PS2 and were looking for a second system.

Also a game like Eternal Darkness that got really good press reviews, didn't sell that great. I really have no clue what the average GC owner looks for in a game. ED sales number don't point to a good future for non-Nintendo franchise games.

A very big "if" here. If Microsoft ends up buying SEGA in 2003, I think the X-Box will get a surge again from PS 2 owners in the market looking for a second system. Unless Zelda resonates with gamers in a big way, I doubt Nintendo will be able to pull ahead of Microsoft in the US and Europe in 2003.

 

[Blade]

Brimstone: Selling Rare was a good and bad move for Nintendo.. but mostly good in the Big N's opinion.

They gained money and lost a bloated studio that didn't seem to love working with them anymore.

The bad (for Nintendo) is that Rare can still make AAA games and now Xbox is getting them. Perfect Dark Zero was going to be GCN's big FPS for 2003/2004.. and now GCN doesn't have it. Everybody that bought a GCN for Rare has been let down.

 

[marconelly!]

Nintendo going 3rd party would probably be the stupidest thing they can do. Heck, they could prosper off the portable cosoles only if they wanted, rather than doing that. I just don't see them quitting the hardware business, no matter how much Microsoft and Sony crowd cheered for it - it brings Nintendo too much money.

 

[Nexiss]

Hmm, Gamecube has been out for a year and it has sold like 7-8 million right? It would look like in the ~5 year lifespan of a console they won't have much trouble breaking 30+ million consoles. I would say the idea that Nintendo is in any sort of peril right now is fairly ridiculous.
They seem to be on track to due better than they did the last generation, and considering this is a business I think one of the goals is to make money. It's great and all that Microsoft is establishing themselves (and taking the losses needed to do so), but it is also a good thing when you make money.
Considering ED didn't exactly sell poorly (it didn't due great either...), and considering how well Metroid is selling I would say they are doing ok with their attempts to grab a larger piece of the older market. It would be foolish to expect them to instantly be able to change their image and start selling games like ED by the boatload, things like that take time.

 

[Goldni]

Yeah I think Johnny should lay off the caffeine a bit. I think both systems (XB and GCN) have done respectable in terms of capturing an audience and sales. It looks as though both systems are gonna meet thier projections for the fiscal year (globally). Nintendo has now launched the GCN in every country that XB has..including Korea, Tiawan, etc. Nintendo has never done that.

One has to ask why it appears the XB has done well against the GCN. Two reasons imo:1) The XB bundles and giveaways.

2) MS constant advertising on TV and mags. Nintendo actually will see nice Christmas numbers due to thier increased advertising (go figure). They should have been doing this all year.

3) Nintendo's refusal to lower the GCN price. Believe me, if NCL would have given the word you'd have seen GCN's selling like crazy.


I also am confused by your assumptions that Dec numbers will show the GCN "lost out to XB" in most countries. When the Nov numbers showed the GCN finally evened up with the XB. I'll bet Dec will show the GCN stayed with or even outsold the XB in every region except maybe the UK and Australia. Nov numbers also showed that GCN software numbers were stronger than XB. And just because some 3rd parties have made some bombs on the GCN does'nt mean a thing. I CAN tell you for one that Sega has been VERY upset with Toe Jam & Earls sales on the Xbox...despite being advertised HEAVILY. While Sega's sports have done better on the XB and PS2 than the GCN, thier other big genre titles have done well. For example. Phantasy Star Online GCN has done well over what Sega had thought. It's sold out every where. My EB got 20 copies Friday. They are gone. I'll bet the new numbers will show it damn near 200,000 copies sold. Also SMB2 will show over 100,000 sold.

Thier are 3rd party games on all three systems that have sold like crap. I think it's more of a particular title's identity than anything. For example. Harry potter sold a good deal better on the GCN than XB. And another EA game showed up selling very good on the GCN compared to the PS2 version. I'm talking about Bond: Nightfire. But another EA brand game like Madden sold better on the XB. so what does EA learn from this? Possibly the GCN audience leans more towards action and adventure games rather than sports. Also the GCN audience tells companies like Sega, EA and Accliam that they will not buy PS2 looking (and loading) ports ie. Turok (sold worst on GCN) and Sega's 2K games (several were released 2, 3 and sometimes 4 weeks after the other two.

Timesplitters 2 sold well on GCN too. My points are thier are several games that has done well on GCN compared to the other two machines' larger bases. Some have bombed but some have'nt. I think one could look at the bargain bins for SEVERAL Xbox and PS2 dissapointments. Like Blinx, Gunvalkrye, Sega GT and numerous others. And I wont even begin to list the huge PS2 list of bombs.

One more thing. I can tell you about a year and a half ago MS did'nt think they'd be competing against the Gamecube for who got 2nd/3rd place. They honestly thought that the XB would stand up well against Sony's PS2. They were sure that the XB would put up PS2-like sales numbers. They were sorley dissapointed. The losses they were preparing to take (per unit) were based on ALOT more machines being sold globally. MS was not prepared to take the beating like they have in Japan. And they did'nt predict the XB would be edging out the GCN in Europe for 2nd spot. MS from the get go had PS2 in it's sights and it majorly missed the target..bad. Now MS' huge losses are dealing with scuffling with the GCN and not leading the market. Now MS is staring at fighting the GCN (which Nintendo is turning a profit one very one sold) instead of the big kahuna that is PS2.

All is not bad for MS and Nintendo though. If anything came out of 2002 it's that THERE IS ROOM FOR THREE in the global market. And anyone talking about "2003 being the make or break year for Nintendo and MS" should be reminded that that is what everyone was preaching about 2002. And look at how that has turned out.

 

[PC-Engine]

ED was just one of those great games that never gained much attention from the average Joe, at least it did better than ICO though :?

 

[Guest]

Q: Is Gamecube in peril?

A: No.

Keeping things simple is kewl. 8)

 

[Glonk]

I CAN tell you for one that Sega has been VERY upset with Toe Jam & Earls sales on the Xbox

It's a crap game, it would have flopped on any console. I'm sure Sega knows this, if they even played it...

Like Blinx, Gunvalkrye, Sega GT and numerous others.

SegaGT wasn't a disappointment in my book, it's leaps and bounds better than the Dreamcast version...

If SegaGT is a disappointment, Super Mario Sunshine is a total bomb.

(I honestly played quite a bit more SegaGT than SMS, but I realize not everyone is like me)

One more thing. I can tell you about a year and a half ago MS did'nt think they'd be competing against the Gamecube for who got 2nd/3rd place. They honestly thought that the XB would stand up well against Sony's PS2. They were sure that the XB would put up PS2-like sales numbers.

I have no idea where you're pulling this from.
Have you read "Inside the Xbox" or really listened to anything MS execs have said about Xbox over the past three years? No one inside of MS expected it to get "PS2-like sales numbers", let alone be "sure of it"... :?

I've always heard them say time and time again that the Xbox is about getting a foothold in the market, and the real race would begin in ~2005 with the PS3/Xbox2.

Now MS is staring at fighting the GCN (which Nintendo is turning a profit one very one sold)

Do you have any links for the GCN costs? I've always heard it cost Nintendo $150 to make it, which is also what they're selling it for. I'm sure the $150 figure doesn't include things like marketing though.

As far as I know, the only company making a profit off the hardware is Sony, at about ~$25 a unit.

 

[Guest]

I have no idea where you're pulling this from.
Have you read "Inside the Xbox" or really listened to anything MS execs have said about Xbox over the past three years? No one inside of MS expected it to get "PS2-like sales numbers", let alone be "sure of it"...

MS execs wanted to sell hundreds of millions of Xbox initially. I think it was Seamus who started that 100m Xboxes by the end of this generation crap talk

 

[Lazy8s]

I do think Nintendo will give up home console hardware eventually (not before the end of this generation certainly), but not because they have to.

I don't think Nintendo will gain the interests of third parties as well as they're capable of because, somewhere up in the Japanese management ranks and decades-old management structures, they're just unwilling to change themselves by opening up and aggresively wooing third parties like Sony once did and Microsoft is doing. SEGA actually managed to change themselves around after the 32-bit era to accomodate third parties as much as they could for the Dreamcast capaign, and they managed to rally about as much support as one could hope for given their last-place seating.

However, Nintendo might be getting pushed back into SEGA's old spot slowly but surely, but setting up a development studio to work on competing consoles this generation is not only heresy - it's decidely unwise. If Nintendo's third-party studio was successful, they'd just be supplying their competition with the ammo of their games... just another reason for a new consumer looking to buy a game console to NOT choose the GameCube. And really, they might not even go third party at the end of all this... they might decide to form an exclusive relationship with Sony in a future hardware generation and become an exclusive developer for Sony's home console hardware.

It's best they fully commit to whatever they're going to do, and make a full change when they're ready. There's no reason to dabble and go wishy-washy with focus or commitment quite yet. They're not in any financial trouble, and their business plan won't be putting them there anytime soon. I certainly don't seem them hanging with Microsoft indefinitely, but I think they have enough time and money to make whatever next change they'll decide upon in a graceful and decisive manner.

 

[PC-Engine]

When Nintendo lowered the price to $150, they went from making a profit at $200 to breaking even at $150. Presently it cost less than $150 to make so they're back to making a profit again.

Regard SEGA GT and SMS, they're not even the same type of game so why should they even be compared?

 

[wazoo]

I've seen such debate for a decade. nintendo was supposed to go 3rd party at the Saturn launch too. This year, based on current predictions Nintendo will get 800M$ profit, or 80% of what they they did last year.

In the same time, MS will have somewhere int the 700M$ loss (I multiply by 4 the 177M$ quarter number we got last month) for their gaming division.

conclusion; MS is here to stay and Nintendo is going 3rd party ?? what a strange world we live

 

[Goldni]

People bring up the Sega sports thing often with the GCN. What they dont realize is that Sega sports did awful on all three systems. EA kicked thier ass. GCN was the system they performed the most poorly on.

Good point about the profit thing Wazoo. Alot of people have'nt a clue how profit driven Nintendo really is.

 

[iscariot]

nope

what wazoo said. N is in better shape then they've been in years. Their console may have the weakest and fruitiest lineup, but their in great shape all things considered...

 

[Legion]

Re: nope

what wazoo said. N is in better shape then they've been in years. Their console may have the weakest and fruitiest lineup, but their in great shape all things considered...

thats an interesting way of putting it.