HL2 source has supposedly been leaked

Discussion in 'PC Gaming' started by bloodbob, Oct 2, 2003.

  1. Bouncing Zabaglione Bros.

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    Add up all the players online for HL, CS and any other mod, average it for a week, double it for the people on LANs. I'll be generous and let you double that number again for good luck. Then subtract that number from the 8 million copies of HL sold worldwide (source: http://money.cnn.com/2003/04/23/commentary/game_over/column_gaming/ ) . Which number is bigger?

    Using your 60,000 (which is about right going by http://www.gamespy.com/stats/ which includes all the mods), that means 240,000 players regularly playing Half Life, and 7.76 *million* people who bought the game not playing it online at all. Even if you disagree with my numbers and how I've calculated them, I don't see how you can reasonably rejig them to bridge the massive gap between online players and offline/single-only players.

    Where are the *vast* majority of those players that bought the game? They are either not playing the game, playing the single player only, or not playing online. If Valve scrapped the online portion of the game, it would have a minimal effect on their bottom line (a lot of those people would buy it without the MP anyway), though it would affect mods and other things that give the game more longevity for a small portion of their customers. However, this would to an extent be offset by not needing to support the online version of the game.
    In short, Valve makes loads more money from those that play the single player and never play online.

    The real plus side to the online play version for Valve is Steam. Using Steam, Valve has the potential to keep more of the money they make for themselves, and lower overheads, and start educating gamers (at least those with broadband) into using a new purchasing model that benefits Valve, instead of the distributer/publisher/retailer.
     
  2. jvd

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    well i'm not really happy with the delay. The claimed up till the 30th that it will be out by then. That date came and went . Then the stuff was leaked. If it really is delayed till april i will not buy this game. I don't like being told something only to have them go back on what they said . There are many games coming out in 2004 that i would rather buy. So it looks like this will loose out .
     
  3. RussSchultz

    RussSchultz Professional Malcontent
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    I bought BF1942. I used to play it online. I don't play it any more.

    How does that fit into your calculations?

    (Of course, I also bought halflife, and I never played it online, but I still don't play it anymore)
     
  4. Bouncing Zabaglione Bros.

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    Well it doesn't, as I was talking about Half Life, not BF1942.

    Then I guess you count as one of those people that bought HL and never played it online. :roll: That's why I wrote (bolding for you Russ):

    Are you alluding to the idea that a lot more of those people who bought HL played online at some point? I don't think this is the case as people who tried it once or twice didn't really buy it for online play - that was just a nice bonus they didn't really want. If you only played it a few times, online, then it wasn't really an online game for you.

    If you look at the numbers from the beginning, they have stayed fairly static, much in the same way that other game's online numbers have risen to a plateu and stayed there for a long time. You get bursts as things like CS get released, and then the numbers settle down into the hardcore players.

    Besides, even if you want to rejig the example numbers I gave above, you are going to have to stretch really far to make up the difference from quarter of a million to 8 million. There's enough of a big difference that it can easily encompass those numbers of people who might have played for a couple of months and then given up. Those people are not the ones that were very interested in the online play of HL anyway - the fact they gave it up so quickly kind of proves that.

    If you're suggesting that the online HL players make up a significant source of income for Valve compared to single-players who bought the game but never play online, I'd be more than happy to read your figures/sources to explain the difference between the number of copies of HL sold versus the number of people we see playing online.
     
  5. Laa-Yosh

    Laa-Yosh I can has custom title?
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    Let's take a look at it from a different angle:
    If online players do not mean a significant source of income for Valve, then why do they invest serious amounts of resources to the support and development of multiplayer gaming?

    I also recall an online survey conducted by Valve for Counterstrike players, that was filled by more than 400,000 people. It was cited here for a long time because of the video card related statistics. And I'm sure they have not managed to get all CS players to fill it.

    Or another approach - it's pretty much agreed that CS is the most played multiplayer FPS game. Assuming that there are only a quarter million people playing it means that Quake, Unreal and co. should have even lower numbers, like a hundred thousand at maximum - which is obviously not true either...
     
  6. Bouncing Zabaglione Bros.

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    You tell me - a lot of dev houses put in serious amounts of resources and make significant losses - but they still do it anyway. I think a lot of them are looking for a model to make them continual income, like the MMORPGs. They saw the money that EA makes from Ultima Online, and they wanted some of that cash, but the MMORPG market is quite different from online FPS games.

    As I said, I reckon Valve has particular interest in promoting Steam, and I'm sure it doesn't hurt their engine licencing.

    Those games *do* have very low online numbers (check out the Gamespy link I posted at the top of the page). It ones of the big complaints on the UT2K3 forums that the game is a failure because the online numbers a less than UT. The online numbers for UT2K3 are also a tiny fraction of the numbers that bought the game. According to Epic themselves and anecdotal evidence, a lot of people play the game offline with bots, and never go online for a variety of reasons.
     
  7. jb

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    Well I was one, and probably not the only, one that played 1/2 first on a LAN. Loved it so much and went out to buy it the next day so I could play that night on-line using my trusty 28.8k connection. I did not even play the single player part until I moved and feck up with the phone co (I forgot to tell them where/when I was moving so my new place did not have a phone for 5 days). It was only then I was stuck going through on-line withdraws that I fiugred to try the single player part.


    I also dont understand why you compare 260,000 hard core vrs 8 million.
    Your taking only the players that sill play the game (4+ years old now) vrs all of the games sold. Well thats not even realisitc as how many people have played HL more than onece? I bet you find a majority of those people only played it once. Going by your analogy if "they only played it a few times it does not count" then if they did not finnish the game or play it more than once, its did not count. See how silly that is?


    Your not taking into account all of those players that had to BUY the game just to play CS or another mod on-line. Then what about all of those people that played it on-line got tired of the cheats and left for other games (just as I did). I played 4/5 times a week for hour at a time for over 2 years. Then gave up and currently playing SOF2/DC on-line. There a hellof a lot of people that did the same thing. There numbers should be counted.

    What about those of us that have more than one copy as HL was also bunled with video cards? I have 3 myself. 1 I bought at a store. One that came with a video card. And a third, kripes..I dont remember how I got the third.


    I heard that they sold over a million copies of the retail Countstrike box version. Your figures did not count for that.

    Then dont forget with out the on-line community keeping the HL game up, your sales of HL would have fallen off a long time ago and never would have gotten close to the 8 million mark.

    The only way to know is to ask value stight up. I am sure there are a hell of a lot more WonID issued thaan your 260,000.

    Any ways like it or not Value knows that the on-line community has a lot of money and adds a large part to their over all sucess. If they did not, they would not have bought CS and DoD now would they :)
     
  8. Bouncing Zabaglione Bros.

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    You're missing the point. If you buy the game, Valve have your money. They don't really care if you play online or not. Valve sold 8 million copies of HL. Out of that, even using very generous figures, only a relatively small number of play online. Whether you look at figures now or a couple of years back, it's only a small number of the overall sales. Even if you count people that played a few times and gave up - it doesn't matter because Valve have your money. Given the choice between the money they get from the online community, or the money they get from the people who never play/played online, it's a much, much bigger number for those that never play online.

    IIRC, the CS figures are included in the ones from Gamespy. Again, there's not a million people playing CS online.

    Check out how many are active - it's a lot less than the millions that were used briefly. I even had a WonID while I played HL for a few hours before discarding it.

    That's for Steam - and the potential money from a new, online distribution model.


    Look at it another way: How many HL2 sales would Valve lose if they didn't ship a multiplayer? How many people would be affected? Would it be a very small segment of their overall sales for the single player game?

    What if Valve never shipped a single-player game? Would a lot of people be affected? Would Valve lose out on a lot of sales or not?
     
  9. 1000101

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    just knowing that most of the half-life 1 sales have been from either DoD boxed sets or CS boxed sets over the last year (maybe 2) kinda throws off game-spy's numbers.
    not that one could ever trust gamespy.

    but thats 2 games that can ONLY be played multi-player (noone really buys them to play the bots). You can probably tack on at least a million copies like that. Multi-player is alot more popular than you think.

    I think gamespy gets their numbers from browsing the servers and taking a snapshot of how many people are playing at any given time (maybe peak); which probably leaves another million unaccounted for.

    You could compare to the number of players for something like ut2k3 and see that CS players alone outnumber them by around 10-1-ish. (been a while since I've checked the servers.)
    Using gamespys logic though it'd seem that only like 4-5 thousand people are playing a game that probably sold a million copies.

    something tells me if only 5000 people were playing ut2k3 in multi-player; that we probably wouldn't care what epic has to say about anything. In fact; they'd probably have folded.

    Lets figure up some new numbers. We'll say that theres 60 thousand CS players on at peak hours based on what gamespy says.
    Now; we'll figure non-peak it'll be half that.
    so 30 thousand players at any other given point (the world is a big place; and I've seen 30-40 thousand players online at very odd hours so this isn't unreasonable)
    We'll be kind and assume everyone plays for 1 hour. (many play for more; many play for less; this seems reasonable to me)

    So we got 720 thousand plus the 60 at peak. 780 thousand people..
    we'll apply your formula and double it once for LAN parties
    1.4 million; (keep in mind this is just CS players; which is reasonable since many CS players play DoD and other mods)
    I could double it again for 2.8 million players but that might be stretching it a bit (though truth be told its probably more accurate)

    thats a much bigger (and more realistic) chunk of multi-player thats out there.
    And your discounting just how much great multi-player can help a game sell.
    Had it not been for multi-player you can bet half-life wouldn't have sold as many copies as it did. Thats what kept it alive. Bob buys Half-life; plays CS; says its cool; gets his friends hooked; they buy it too.

    Half-life was a pretty stellar game; but it doesn't have enough replay value to justify the numbers without factoring in multi-player.

    edit:Keep in mind this is all based on assumption. Which of course is what the theory that theres only a quarter of a million people playing counter-strike is based on.
     
  10. breez

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    I know people who bought Half-Life just to play Counter-Strike and they have never even tried the single player.
     
  11. RussSchultz

    RussSchultz Professional Malcontent
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    Well, I suppose I am alluding to that.

    The games been out for nearly 5 years. I can only imagine that a small fraction of the people who purchased the game are still playing it in any form at all.

    Judging how important the MP aspect of halflife is by the number of current players online is an excercise in futility.
     
  12. bloodbob

    bloodbob Trollipop
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    On player numbers there are 14.5k atm on WON and I dunno how many on steam.
     
  13. Gubbi

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    By your logic the average HL/CS player plays 6 hours online every single day!?!? I'd guess that the average is one hour... And that's for active players. My games browser tells me that there are currently (18:08 CET on a sunday afternoon) 78,000 players online. Considering the bulk of CS players are coming from Europe and North America and mostly play at night I'd be willing to guestimate the number of active CS players to be in the 1.5 - 2 millions.

    The only one I know who plays Counter-Strike who has gone through HL single player, besides myself, is my brother. That is like 1 in 50 (2 counting myself in).

    Cheers
    Gubbi
     
  14. Saem

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    Don't forget all the retarded amount of CS cafes.
     
  15. MrBond

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    I think the point is that Valve knows that multiplayer is one of the driving reasons that HL1 has lasted this long. Do you seriously think HL would've been able to keep its shelf space this long without the assistance of multiplayer mods CS and DOD? Like someone else metnioned in this thread, I know friends who have bought HL1 retail just so they could get a legit cdkey to play online, they didn't even want to play the single player mode.
     
  16. bloodbob

    bloodbob Trollipop
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    When hl1 was out back then me and my mates where playing multiplayer by serial so yeah multiplayer definatly ain't what started it. Actually the first multiplayer mod I played of HL1 was actually sven co-op so I wouldn't say HL1 was just about single player.
     
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