Events in PS3 distribution?

[Carl B]

Well my launch PS3 died two days ago; blinking red lights - power supply, solder, who knows... some day when I have time I will try and repair.

But the thread is about a different issue. So whatever I do with the old one, I am going to go ahead and replace it with a newer edition for my mainline use. What I have noticed though, is that it is sold out *everywhere*. So the question is: why is this the case? Myself I have two theories, and maybe someone here might have additional info to help shed some light.

One theory is that a minor hardware revision is underway - perhaps 65nm RSX supplies have been run through, and the quantities ordered were lower than might have otherwise been the case because sell through ended up being higher than anticipated before the 45nm revision could ship in mass. So - is the 45nm RSX PS3 right around the corner? Or... new hard drive sizes again?

Theory two is that the purposeful constriction of core PS3 supplies sent shoppers to the 250GB system, which I believe is a net profitable system and thus to Sony's advantage to ensure its sell-through.

I would believe either, or other theories as well; certainly if a, then b has occurred regardless. But I am inclined to believe there is/was some sort of 'halt' in the production, and if not for an actual change in hardware, than I am happy to hear theories and insights.

I can find some 120GB's around, so it is not a matter of that - but rather, if the dry channel is indicative of a slightly more desirable product, then I will be willing to wait a little before replacing.

 

[eastmen]

CHinese new years ?

 

[djskribbles]

http://www.computerandvideogames.com/article.php?id=235835

Worst timing for Sony though. They have a few major releases in March and hardly any PS3s on shelves. Shortages have gone all the way back to late December, but it's getting worse.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

From this thread, there's a new SKU that's dropping 200g in weight, perhaps indicating an RSX shrink with accompanying heatsink reduction.

 

[patsu]

Dell is selling PS3 Slim for $269 (shipping in 1-2 weeks):
http://playstation.joystiq.com/2010/03/09/120gb-ps3-is-269-from-dell-ships-in-1-2-weeks/

 

[Carl B]

From this thread, there's a new SKU that's dropping 200g in weight, perhaps indicating an RSX shrink with accompanying heatsink reduction.

Crazy timing - I'd stopped following that thread, quite wild that the very same day I make this one a relevant post would pop up as well. Chalk one up to my incredible powers of reasoning I guess.

I did see that Dell deal Patsu (I'm an avid SlickDeals.net follower), but didn't want to bite without knowing whether it would be the new SKU or not. It seems petty of course - after all 45nm vs 65nm makes no material performance difference, and I was looking to stay with my phat forever - but $30 savings or not, I might as well go with the 'newest.'

 

[patsu]

I would have done the same thing as you, xbd.

But at the rate it's going, I will probably hug my pillow (or wife) and cry myself to sleep every night until I get the new one.

 

[ban25]

Last time mine died, I sent it to Sony for repair (~$160). I didn't want to lose PS2 backwards compatibility. If it dies again, though, I might just buy a PS2 slim or hook up my old PS2. I'd like to avoid having too many devices in the entertainment center, though. So what I'd really like to see is a return for PS2 backwards compatibility in the PS3.

 

[Carl B]

Of course the PS2 B/C is the primary reason I would not have wanted to lose the launch unit, followed by Other OS support and 'street cred' for having not only a launch unit, but an all-black 20GB unit.

I can't pay ~$150 to Sony though when for another $150 I get an all new unit with a longer life expectancy and a smaller wattage footprint. I don't know whether it is my PSU or a solder issue - I can apply those fixes myself down the line, and decide then what to do with the original. If I were confident that a fix to that extent would be a permanent solution, well that is the course I would go outright. But... I just am not feeling very confident that it would be.

 

[Scott_Arm]

Maybe they're holding units back for the "Move" bundle they mentioned.

 

[Carl B]

I don't think so though; with the formal announcement of "Move" yesterday, if supplies were being held back for that bundle, they would have announced a bundle launch date as well were it to be right around the corner. I think it's just the break in the supplies between the original Slim production needs they prior anticipated, and the delivery of the first set of newer revision units.

 

[BoardBonobo]

Maybe they've just sold a lot more than they were expecting to, and that's causing the gaps in the chain.

 

[Carl B]

Maybe they've just sold a lot more than they were expecting to, and that's causing the gaps in the chain.

Demand was greater than expected either way, it's just that if it were a 'normal' gap situation, I would expect it to be more stop-and-go; small shipments arriving every week or two with quick sell-outs. This just feels more like a supply-side halt. Well - we'll know more definitively once stores like Amazon and Best Buy get restocked, because they'll either be the new model or they won't.

 

[obonicus]

Well, we'll probably know for sure a week or two after that, once the rumors are gone and someone reliable does a tear-down. Unless you're volunteering, carl?

 

[Carl B]

If it's the new model number, then that's when I'll be purchasing either way; I'm happy to open it up in that case to see what's changed, but for the RSX specifically, if it's still below a heatspreader I probably would not be willing to break that off. So mobo layouts and wattage readings are as far as I would get, unless the RSX would be an exposed die package at that point.

 

[eastmen]

what fab would have 45nm capcity for sony at this point in time ?

GF , INTEL , IBM are the only ones I can think of . TMSC has 40nm but it seems ot have been a huge problem. Do you think Sony's fabs were able to make the move to 45/40nm more smoothly ?

edit should have been IBM not dell. Thats what I get staying up till 6am instead of sleeping !

 

[Carl B]

Dell? Anyway yes, Sony's (Toshiba's) own fabs. Cell is already on 45nm if you recall, and has been for some time (so IBM is another we can add to the list). 45nm is only future tech for so long afterall - they are all steaming right ahead towards 32nm as we type this.

 

[DuckThor Evil]

Dell? Anyway yes, Sony's (Toshiba's) own fabs. Cell is already on 45nm if you recall, and has been for some time (so IBM is another we can add to the list). 45nm is only future tech for so long afterall - they are all steaming right ahead towards 32nm as we type this.

Yeah and Intel already has plenty of Core ix chips out on 32nm.

 

[Crossbar]

what fab would have 45nm capcity for sony at this point in time ?

http://www.eetimes.com/news/semi/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=211600040

Sony is supposed to deliver a 45-nm version of its graphics engine for the PlayStation 3 game console to Toshiba. The chip is being manufactured on a foundry basis by Toshiba.

Please note that article was from late 2008.

 

[NathansFortune]

Maybe they've just sold a lot more than they were expecting to, and that's causing the gaps in the chain.

GAF had a decent analysis based on real figures from Activision's (?) financial briefing. It showed that PS3 sell through was around 90% of units shipped in Q4 leaving only a few hundred thousand WW on shelves and in retailer warehouses in January. Given that there have been few to no shipments from Sony to NA since mid Jan I think they are waiting on a new SKU which has obviously been delayed for a month. The demand for a $299 PS3 has always been there and will always be there so I wouldn't worry about short term shortages.

If we are still discussing the issue in July then Sony have a massive problem as they could be competing with a cut price 360 which could damp PS3 demand.