Electric Vehicle Thread!

AlphaWolf

Specious Misanthrope
Legend
Thats a projection of a worldwide sales number; Tesla sold just shy of a million 3's Y's worldwide in 2022 and they hold the record for best selling car period (irrespective of engine type) in at least three countries also in this year.

Maybe Ford can scrape together a combined 150k this year, however theyre really far from that production capacity right now. Tesla could sleep on all their production scaling increases for all of 2023 and still be roughly two thirds of an order of magnitude higher than Ford in provable (not speculative / projected) production capacity.

The reason Im even talking about this? Because Tesla has achieved the necessary scale to positively make money on volume sales rather than relying on thick margins on a (comparatively) small number of boutique offerings.
Ford only produces the lightning in Dearborn. If they do get ramped up to 150k units as they plan (They sold more units every month in 2022 so they are certainly still ramping up), I expect all or nearly all of them to be sold in NA. Trucks have always had higher margins and Ford won't have to discount because they have 0 competitors in the truck segment.
 

Albuquerque

Red-headed step child
Veteran
Ford only produces the lightning in Dearborn. If they do get ramped up to 150k units as they plan (They sold more units every month in 2022 so they are certainly still ramping up), I expect all or nearly all of them to be sold in NA. Trucks have always had higher margins and Ford won't have to discount because they have 0 competitors in the truck segment.
Eh, at the scale at which Ford is making the Lightnings (which is really low right now) I wonder if Rivian isnt capable of competing in that same space. And we both know Chevy is in the EV pickup game come later this year. I would need to check the deets on Rivian, I didnt look for them earlier.

Ford really has a great contender in the Mach E along with some demonstrated experience and adaptations thanks to its older production start date. I think thats where Ford will make the super majority of their sales.

Waiting for them to announce an EV Explorer or maybe a Fusion...
 

AlphaWolf

Specious Misanthrope
Legend
Rivian isn't even trying to compete in the same space. It's targetting a boutique audience.

With states and countries setting targets for EV sales. The F150 will ultimately be Fords best selling EV or Ford will fail.
 
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Albuquerque

Red-headed step child
Veteran
Just had a bit of the googles... Rivian pickups outsold the Lightning by 120 units in Q3 2022... Rivian at 6,584 delivered vs Ford at 6,464 delivered.

The entirety of Ford EV sales in Q3 was a starkly underwhelming 18,257 units which includes their commercial E-Transit cargo van.

I dunno man, seems like they have quite a ways to go.
 

AlphaWolf

Specious Misanthrope
Legend
Just had a bit of the googles... Rivian pickups outsold the Lightning by 120 units in Q3 2022... Rivian at 6,584 delivered vs Ford at 6,464 delivered.

The entirety of Ford EV sales in Q3 was a starkly underwhelming 18,257 units which includes their commercial E-Transit cargo van.

I dunno man, seems like they have quite a ways to go.
According to Fords December sales report. The Lightning has outsold the R1T since its release in May 2022. Ford has a little more practice at ramping production than Rivian. I don't know if they will hit their 150k target, but I expect they will get close.

<edit>And Ford has discontinued the Fusion. Don't hold your breath on it coming back. The only cars they produce now are the Mustang and the GT. It would be weird for them to release either of those as an EV.
 
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Albuquerque

Red-headed step child
Veteran
I forgot about Ford quitting the car business, minus the Stang of course. I still think it was a short sighted decision, and just like the Lightning, I think the Fusion brand name has good potential ring to it for an EV comeback. Electric Fusion, c'mon thats got some catchy quality to it right?

Chevy / GM is really holding my interest for 2023. They've had a lot of well deserved success with the Bolt and Volt lines. I want to see their hybrid Vette get into reviewers hands, and Im curious about their other new EV offerings coming this year.
 

AlphaWolf

Specious Misanthrope
Legend
I live in the least EV friendly place on earth (cold, tax on EVs, large distances, no chargers and no incentives) so my interest in actually owning is far in the future. Probably at least 2 elections away. But I see the utility in a truck. The Rivian, hummer and the cybertruck are designed for something other than work. I am sure Chevy and Dodge will eventually have compelling products that I can pretend I need and will push Ford on price and innovation.
 

wco81

Legend
Manchin is upset that the Treasury is giving EV tax credits to all EVs until they hammer out the rules to comply with the IRA.

So he's introduced a new law which would cancel tax credits retroactive to Jan 1.

Sen. Joe Manchin III (D-W.Va.) unveiled a bill today to halt tax credits for electric vehicles that don’t satisfy the battery sourcing requirements in the Inflation Reduction Act.

The measure could increase tensions in Europe, where leaders already worry that America’s climate law will unfairly disadvantage their clean-energy industries, and in Washington, where the Biden administration is still racing to implement the landmark law.

The legislation, dubbed the American Vehicle Security Act, would direct the Treasury Department to stop issuing tax credits for EVs that don’t comply with the climate law’s battery sourcing provisions.

Read in The Washington Post: https://apple.news/A6y_Z_1WwRAqQRmdB7Gd-Ag

As noted, European leaders have been critical of the IRA, on the EV tax credits as well as other provisions.

One thing Manchin wasn't aware of is that the US and the EU do not have a free trade agreement so none of the EVs from German and other EU manufacturers would be eligible for the EV tax credit under the IRA. So some are moving to manufacture EVs and batteries in the US, though it may take some time to bring that online.
 

Albuquerque

Red-headed step child
Veteran
I loathe how lawmakers and politicians use emotional word pictures that are wholly unrelated to the shitty bills and laws being named, like this horseshit "American Vehicle Security Act." If you went to anyone on the street of America, anyone at all at random, and said "Hey, what do you think the American Vehicle Security Act really means and/or does?" would ANYONE actually be able to guess correctly?

And for what? How much of a Tesla's entire parts catalog is made and assembled in the US versus almost any other EV maker out there? Oh wait, where is Ford building their LIghtings and Mach E's again? Oh gee, where are those batteries coming from again? Screw that, ask the same dumb questions for any ICE vehicle too for that matter.

The entire GOP can just get proper fucked. This is along the same lines of stupid as those imbecelles in Wyoming who are somehow looking to "outlaw" EV's in their state by 2035. Talk about riding the very left edge of the Dunning Kruger curve...
 

AlphaWolf

Specious Misanthrope
Legend
And for what? How much of a Tesla's entire parts catalog is made and assembled in the US versus almost any other EV maker out there? Oh wait, where is Ford building their LIghtings and Mach E's again? Oh gee, where are those batteries coming from again? Screw that, ask the same dumb questions for any ICE vehicle too for that matter.
Nothing really wrong with your point except the Lightning is made in Michigan.

It's an interesting dance they need to play, because built in USA requirements actually violate the USMCA free trade agreement.
 

Mariner

Veteran
Republican politicians have long since learned that there isn't anything too dumb they can do or say providing it will personally benefit them among their 'base' (i.e. the folk indoctrinated by bullshit on Fox News et al to vote against their interests).

It's good politics for them as it helps them to get re-elected? who cares if it is bad for the country in the longer term?

Wait, is that a completely arbitrary and damaging artificial debt limit I hear coming over the horizon?
 

eastmen

Legend
Supporter
Tesla is very obviously aiming directly at the price ceiling for the federal tax rebate on EVs rather than smooth ramping thing. Employing a strategy of two (or more) smaller cuts over the course of a year wouldn't drive the purchasing volume they now enjoy, as it wouldn't have been big enough fast enough to get so many of their most popular models under the IRS price threshold before the March 31st deadline.

And bluntly, Tesla might be the only EV producer in the US domestic market to have sufficient scale and vertical integration to build this many cars at this pricepoint while still sustaining good (enough) margins. They have been scaling their production capacity for a decade and I'll wager a fifty spot there's literally nobody else in the US EV market who can right now in Q1 of 2023 touch Tesla's sheer production capacity within a single order of mangitude.

In Q3 of 2022:
  • The well reviewed Kia EV6 sold 4,996 units
  • The comfortable and accessible VW ID.4 sold 6,657 units.
  • What might be the strongest Model Y competitor, the Ford Mach E sold 10,414 units.
  • The venerable Chevy Bolt, a super popular and quite inexpensive EV for everyone, sold 14,709 units.
  • The Tesla Model 3 moved a whopping 55,030 units.
  • And despite costing more than the M3 for what might be considered the same essential platform, the Model Y moved an even crazier 60,271 units.

I only listed what I felt were the most obvious contenders. The Bolt is the closest to Tesla in terms of absolute sales numbers, and it's still a landslide in Tesla's favor. This all in spite of how much more expensive even the cheapest Model 3 is compared ot the Bolt. Now imagine a world today where the Model 3 price is within spitting distance of the Bolt (after IRS rebate), then imagine a customer thinking about how to make that decision when all the Bolts are pretty much spoken for and the Model 3 is faster, longer range, more energy efficient, has a better charging network and may arguably have better creature comforts.

Yeah, I'm sure Tesla would rather the fatter margins, however someone with a complicated math degree from an Ivy league college surely napkin math'd it out to determine slightly lower margins (for a while) are more than made up when you pound out a quarter million sales in a single quarter. At the historical rate Tesla has been increasing production capacity for both the Y and 3, I wager they can probably produce that number too.

In short: there are bags of cash, then there are fat stacks of cash, then there is the mountain of mob cash Joker lit on fire in the 2nd Nolan Batman movie, and then somewhere beyond that poit is the sheer stupid amount of money Tesla is going to shovel into their fat maw after completely blowing out everyone else in this space during the IRS tax credit firesale.

Honestly, the very worst part of this is that asshole Musk getting rich from it. Ugh. Still, even to this day and this very moment, fuck that guy with all the sincerity in my heart.
I always wish that GM/chevy would have used the volt platform to create a chevy trax. I really liked the idea of having the gas generator to get more range and I have a trax that I love so it would have made a great small electric suv
 

Albuquerque

Red-headed step child
Veteran
Yeah, the Volt platform is pretty badass in that sense. One of the folks at my office grabbed a "broken" one really cheaply last year; it had a bad battery pack. Turns out he was able to buy several more used battery packs online also cheaply, and was then able to find and swap out the broken one for a used working one.

His commute is about 20 miles each way, and it can run all-electric for the entire commute so long as he isn't pushing it hard or needs the heater / AC on blast. And if he does push it, or need the heat / AC, then the little motor kicks on and starts charging it all up. I think he said he was on the same tiny tank of gas for like four months, lol... He does plug it in every night, although just using one of the tiny 120v / 15A plugs which are standard in the US.
 

Sxotty

Legend
I sort of want a Mitsubishi outlander phev except the all ev range will be small to non-existent in winter. I need to drive 20 miles everyday which is tiny, but in the winter that would be like 40 miles of range plus piano lesson and grocery days etc. It seems silly to get an outlander when I'll still have all the ice hassles like oil changes, plus potential ev hassles when we already have two cars in our household. A pure ev and pure ice, or hybrid make more sense than a phev. Too bad no one makes an ev like the outlander with 7 seats in a pinch and reasonably priced.
 

cheapchips

Veteran
I sort of want a Mitsubishi outlander phev except the all ev range will be small to non-existent in winter. I need to drive 20 miles everyday which is tiny, but in the winter that would be like 40 miles of range plus piano lesson and grocery days etc. It seems silly to get an outlander when I'll still have all the ice hassles like oil changes, plus potential ev hassles when we already have two cars in our household. A pure ev and pure ice, or hybrid make more sense than a phev. Too bad no one makes an ev like the outlander with 7 seats in a pinch and reasonably priced.

The Kia EV9's out this year. Will probably meet all your criteria except the reasonably priced part!
 

Sxotty

Legend
The ev9 is actually bigger than I want. I only need extra seats in a pinch. We need 5 seats regularly so the tiny jump seats are perfect for occassion with a guest. The model y with extra seats would work but it really isn't that cheap, Tesla makes some weird choices, and Elon ugh. It seems ev9 will be quite pricey as you noted. Maybe in a few years a used ev9 or y with jump seats will do though.
 

Albuquerque

Red-headed step child
Veteran
PHEV's are a blessing and a curse in that way... For the upsides, you get the benefit of EV power for acceleration and the electric assist for "effective" commuter MPG can be pretty stinkin' high, along with the benefit of an overall longer range of an ICE setup. The downsides are all the parts of electric plus all the parts of ICE in the same car, with the maintenance of the ICE engine combined with the electrical complexities of an EV.

All things considered, and with about 200 seconds of Google searching to catch myself up a bit, the Outlander PHEV looks like a solid capture of the PHEV SUV crossover 7-seater niche. It seems to get acceptable or better reviews from everyone, it is reported to get excellent fuel mileage, and depending on who you ask the general Mitsubishi reliability seems to have gone up in the past handful of years. Combined with a very affordable sub-$40k MSRP, that might be a pretty solid buy for someone in your place.

Man, but that thing fell out of the UGLY tree and hit every UGLY branch on the way down. :D Just IMHO of course...
 

wco81

Legend
The AER of that Mitsubishi is only 24 miles.

I think some Kia PHEVs are just over 30.

RAV4 Prime is 40 miles AER.

But I guess these manufacturers don't make giant SUVs.
 

tuna

Veteran
The ev9 is actually bigger than I want. I only need extra seats in a pinch. We need 5 seats regularly so the tiny jump seats are perfect for occassion with a guest. The model y with extra seats would work but it really isn't that cheap, Tesla makes some weird choices, and Elon ugh. It seems ev9 will be quite pricey as you noted. Maybe in a few years a used ev9 or y with jump seats will do though.

If you are in the US you can get a Pacifica PHEV.
 
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