The N64 and GCN both had issues with filling some genres, having a wide selection of quality diverse software, and keeping fresh software coming all year long. This is not debatable. Whether the Wii will be better is yet to be seen. The launch was not encouraging. Developers getting on board is -- but I think it needs to be tempered with the fact that many of these devs are the same ones who jumped off from the GCN. e.g. EA supporting the Wii doesn't say much in that EA was one of the bigger supporters last gen. I think it is worthwhile to note that the GCN sold nearly 4M units in its first couple months. It started strong and also finished with a respectible 9.5M units sold to users after its first year. The problem is the GCN didn't maintain its momentum and a lot of that had to do with software. They had the cheapest hardware, a competitive package, and a couple strong 1st party titles. But quality software was too infrequent and they didn't fill enough genres and aggressively took a path that alienated hardcore gamers with their constant dripping about how gamers don't want complex games, hard games, long games, how graphics are not important, how online gaming isn't viable, on and on. To be quite frank much of their message over the last 3 or 4 years is a direct assault on the hardcore community and to distance themselves from it--and it has worked wonderfully.
I think Nintendo's future problem with hardcore gamers is going to come down to a couple issues outside mending these fences of trust. One is software, the type/style/quality as well as quantity across many genres. The fact is non-Nintendo mascot titles don't tend to sell well on Nintendo platforms as of late. So if we start seeing the GCN trend of Ninny mascots on key 3rd party titles and those without such not selling well this will temper some of the 3rd party enthusiasm.
Nintendo needs to show that 3rd parties can make money on a regular basis instead of the platform being a crap shoot. If all the Wii gets are nibbles of portware it is going to be the GCN all over: users will reject it, thus fewer such titles.
Their message on graphics, long games, difficult games, and such are also hurdles to hardcore gamers. When you, as the platform holder, bash certain game designs you create an image that impacts both potential customers and developers/publishers and what they deliver. If you have a darth of hardcore gamers wanting hard, long games then publishers won't make such and in-turn the platform won't attract such gamers.
And of course Nintendo hasn't done anything to detract from their kiddy image. I have long defended them in this regards -- I love how some of their titles can be just as gameplay centric as the blood and gore and sleeze garbage on other systems without succumbing to blatant teen factor -- but they still haven't done much to correct this image (i.e. indicating that they are bigger than ONLY kid games). And many of the more mature titles have done very poorly on their platform.
It really comes down to committment. Committment to more games, more quality games, and more games in different genres and styles. It is a chicken-egg problem and the only real solution is huge console sales that attract such software and for it to sell.
Those who have been around for a couple years know that it was the software that got me looking elsewhere. At the time I was expecting competitive/effecient hardware that mimmicked the GCN compared to the Xbox/PS2. But the software, and attitude toward proven/desired features, is a turnoff for a longtime gaming fan like myself (NES, SNES, N64, GCN) who typically buys only one console within the first 3 years of release. I honestly haven't seen enough movement in actual software product to believe at this point that the Wii is going to have *substantially* more quality titles across more genres. And I emphasize substantially because being better than the GCN doesn't say much because it was quite pathetic imo for hardcore gamer tastes.
Looking at what Nintendo has released over the last 2.5 years you would think they would have a killer lineup slated for 2007. Right now I am not seeing something that is comparable to what, e.g., MS has lined up for 2007. Hardcore gamers are going to be looking at that. But that is the beauty of the Wii--I don't think you buy it for hardcore gaming. You get it as a 2nd console as a different experience. It isn't trying to compete with a PS3 or Xbox 360 in that way, it is taking a different approach to grab those consumer dollars.
