"DVDs will be obsolete in 10 years: Bill Gates"
- Thread starter Wunderchu
- Start date
Errrr... You haven't been paying attention in physics, have you? It'll be "indigo-" or "violet-ray"next.Bahadir said:we all know the saying "640kB will be enough for everyone".
Somehow, i think his comments isnt going to hold true for this one either.
We might have "blue-ray" disc in the next 2 years and maybe "green-ray" disc in the next 5 years after that
History says a major format lasts about 25 years.
- 33 rpm records (mid 60's - early 90's)
- compact cassette (early 70's - late 90's)
- VHS (late 70's - 2002)
- CD (mid 80's - around 2010 seems a reasonable guess)
The more interesting thing is the way that VHS finished with a real cliff, unlike records and cassette. I've thought for a long time this is because it was so clearly inadequate technically.
Now, DVD is a bit different because 'HD-DVD' will have to come along at some point and create infinite confusion, but I suspect DVD will have an awfully long tail to it (like record) because of format buy-in and most people won't have HDTV.
I don't think it will make 25 years, but only a 15 year life seems perhaps a little short.
- 33 rpm records (mid 60's - early 90's)
- compact cassette (early 70's - late 90's)
- VHS (late 70's - 2002)
- CD (mid 80's - around 2010 seems a reasonable guess)
The more interesting thing is the way that VHS finished with a real cliff, unlike records and cassette. I've thought for a long time this is because it was so clearly inadequate technically.
Now, DVD is a bit different because 'HD-DVD' will have to come along at some point and create infinite confusion, but I suspect DVD will have an awfully long tail to it (like record) because of format buy-in and most people won't have HDTV.
I don't think it will make 25 years, but only a 15 year life seems perhaps a little short.
Bill Gates isn't an authority on consumer electronics, and consumer electronics is NOT the same as PCs.
BG is used to people throwing away their PC every three to four years to keep it reasonably up to snuff when running the latest software, but consumer electronics is dominated by clueless couch potato people who buy a gadget and expect it to work pretty much forever. They'd go up in arms if what they bought stopped being useful within just a couple years!
BG is used to people throwing away their PC every three to four years to keep it reasonably up to snuff when running the latest software, but consumer electronics is dominated by clueless couch potato people who buy a gadget and expect it to work pretty much forever. They'd go up in arms if what they bought stopped being useful within just a couple years!
Dio said:
One thing to consider is that DVD hardware can be produced much cheaper than VHS hardware. The mechanics in a VHS recorder/player are just too complex - you just can't build them as cheap as a simple DVD drive. This could boost longevity of DVD.
Another thing is that backwards compatibility to DVD should be relatively easy to achieve with Blu-Ray (or any other optical medium with that format), just like DVD drives are compatible with CDs - which could either help the life of DVD or smoothen the transision to another format.
Just my thoughts about the topic.
Yeah but DVDs and other 'physical media = ownership' ways of distribution are convenient. I can see Mr Gates' revolutionary vision being hampered a bit by overzealous or incompatible digital restrictions management schemes. At least with a DVD you know you can take it anywhere, play it anywhere, loan it to anyone, and even make a backup copy for safekeeping.
Errrr no ... you cannot.Florin said:
I'm pissed off that, as an Australian living in the UK, my family may not be able to send me DVDs of Aussie programs (only available in Aus') because they are in Region 4 and my (current) DVD player only accepts region 2.
Of course, most DVD players in Australia are region free, so the reverse would be possible
Simon F said:
Oh yeah, you're right I forgot about that. That's indeed a nice attempt to screw customers over also. But then somehow this has never been much of an issue for me.. all of the thingies which play DVDs that I have (which is like 7 now :?) were easily switched to regionfree, except for one in my Dell laptop.
