Do you guy's think ATI is smoking something halucinagetic?

Discussion in 'Graphics and Semiconductor Industry' started by micron, Mar 1, 2003.

  1. micron

    micron Diamond Viper 550
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    Although I am deathly afraid of starting a lame thread here, I must ask you anyways...what do you, the members of the B3D Forum, think is going to happen in the fight for the performance crown?. I will admit that I am into ATI, and I dont think that they will drop the ball, but Nvidia scares me with their ability to pull magic drivers out of their arses. The fact that they have been #1 for so long just makes something feel out of place these days,...was part of my devotion towards ATI based on the fact that they werent the big industry leader?, was it internet forums that made me dislike Nvidia so?......why do I keep reading up on Xabre video cards?......<sigh>....I cant even let go of my Dreamcast...even though I know there are much better consoles out there...I must be a wierdo.
     
  2. BRiT

    BRiT (╯°□°)╯
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    In order for there to be a fight, there has to be at least two participants. So far Nvidia has yet to show up. And to make matters more lopsided, ATI is just about set to roll out their next set of products.
     
  3. epicstruggle

    epicstruggle Passenger on Serenity
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    :)

    Yeah, I think being on top (ATi) gives them a bit of a breathing room. Hope they dont slip and fall like Nvidia. :)

    later,
     
  4. Ichneumon

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    ATI knows the price of slipping and falling.

    They road the RagePro chip into the ground and it almost took them with it (technology wise). The RagePro is probably still holds the most graphics chips sold of any one chip of all time... (tough to say, i'm just guessing as market has come a long way since then, but there's been a lot more chip turnover).

    ATI learned a lot from that and the company that built the Radeon and products since then has been an ever evolving and improving company from my perspective.
     
  5. epicstruggle

    epicstruggle Passenger on Serenity
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    @Ichneumon: True, they have been in the dumps. That should motivate them not to go there again. :)

    later,
     
  6. Entropy

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    Looking at it from an objective standpoint, nVidia should be able to make a strong performance comeback. They have the capital, the patents, the engineers and a strong relationship with their silicon foundry. Plus, they still have the large volume OEMs.

    Subjectively, for some time now, they've felt like a company that
    a, has started to believe their own hype.
    b, lost their focus when they totally dominated performance 3D, and started branching out in order to expand their business.

    Jen-hsun has made very strange statements regarding the speed of gfx-chip speed development, that GPUs will overtake CPUs in importance, just a few days ago he said that nVidia will take 50% of AMD K7 chipset business, when the current situation after the nForce1 and 2 is that nVidia hold a measly 5% share. What would cause them to grow by a factor of 10, particularly as they don't seem to have any further products to bring to the table? It smacks of more than being bullish, it smacks of having lost touch with reality. To what extent that affects their engineering efforts is impossible to say.
    But their gfx-lineup from April/May onwards (NV30, NV31, NV34) seem to have been designed as if nVidia operated in a competition free vacuum.

    The situation with the NV30 may or may not have been a wake-up call, but even if they have shifted into high gear, it takes time to push new designs into the marketplace, and nVidia cannot move aggressively to new lithographic processes unless someone makes them available.

    In spite of their experiences with the NV30, I think they will try to implement the most advanced process TSMC can offer. They have the cash to absorb the cost of low yields, if deemed necessary. Doing so with the NV30 doesn't make much sense though, since it is outperformed by the R9800 no matter what. But if it can bring a new design on a new process to market faster, they probably will. The power of your brand name sells your products, and the nVidia brandname is being tarnished at an alarming rate.

    They are sure to try to do something about it.

    Entropy
     
  7. RussSchultz

    RussSchultz Professional Malcontent
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    As one point of reference, the company I work for, with a single product, went from 0% market share to about 50% market share in less than a year. We displaced TI, Cirrus, Micronas, and ST because we offered a compelling enough solution due to price and performance.

    The nforce2 motherboard, for example, could be a killer enough product to manage this. It offers a reasonably good integrated video, a hot damn sound system, its performance is top notch, and it has all the right checkboxes.
     
  8. Entropy

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    Sure.
    And the nForce is a good product, no doubt about that. But it has been out for roughly half a year now. Why should it explode in marketshare at this point, particularly as their competitors are upgrading their offerings (KT400A, SIS746) and nVidia seemingly are not? I could see it increase a bit if they start to price it really agressively, but where would 50% come from?

    Congrats to your successful product launch btw. Hope some of that success made its way into your wages. :)

    Entropy
     
  9. kyleb

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    i don't think ati is on the hallucinogens at all, i imagine that they know damn well that nvidia will surely top their product before too long; but assumeing this, i imagine they are keeping themselves prepared to take the next step forward shortly after they get surpassed. i may be a bit optimistic, but i am really looking forward to a heated competition between ati an nvidia, along with hopefully a few other players steping up to the plate and going on for quite some time. in that regard, i think that if nvidia belives that this was just one little slip and will soon be back to king of the hill for the long run, they are the ones that need to lay down the pipe.
     
  10. Entropy

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    As long as nVidia is pushing forward with variations/extensions on the NV30 foundation, it would seem as if they are going to stay behind ATI in the performance race at least until they get access to new process technology.

    Although it is nigh on impossible to be sure of anything from our armchair perspective, it would seem as if the R350 is simply a more efficient design than the NV30, and it can migrate with reasonable ease to 0.13um.

    It's difficult to see nVidia being able to overcome an enhanced 0.13um version of the R350, given that they can't realistically push transistor/power budgets much, and that they already use the best production process TSMC offers.

    Once TSMC gets their 0.09um into gear, I'm willing to bet that nVidia will be first in line with a high performance design. As has often been remarked, being behind in consumer gfx for a year is not a huge economic problem for nVidia directly. They have cash in the bank and other healthy streams of revenue. The problem is more in the name loosing sales power, causing them to loose consumer recognition and OEM contracts.

    Entropy
     
  11. epicstruggle

    epicstruggle Passenger on Serenity
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    I dont know, Nvidia could be making an incrediably cool mainstream card and value card. And by offering it in the cheap it might undercut Atis position. lets not forget that the highend card is not the end all be all.

    later,
     
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