Coronavirus Outbreak *spawn*

Discussion in 'General Discussion' started by RDGoodla, Feb 4, 2020.

  1. sir doris

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    Even if they are not assembled in China many of the components will be sourced from China.
     
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  2. JPT

    JPT
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    Yes, our products are assembled in Thailand, but the components are coming from China.
     
  3. RDGoodla

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    The Wuhan Coronavirus is much danger than seasonal flu. Because many infected people are sick much more seriously, so medical resource is quickly exhausted.

    https://news.qq.com/zt2020/page/feiyan.htm

    In Wuhan the death rate is 4.1% (478 out of 11618) because all resource is almost exhausted. That is why everyone is afraid of the virus because the spread rate is too fast. If there are 5k people infected in any cities than there will be very little medical resource left and the death rate will be like that in Wuhan city.
     
    #23 RDGoodla, Feb 7, 2020
    Last edited: Feb 7, 2020
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  4. RDGoodla

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    No.

    Typical death rate of seasonal flu is 0.05%. The Wuhan coronavirus is much more danger.

    Today the 34-year-old Chinese doctor, who gave the warning of Wuhan coronavirus first, is dead.

    Another reference:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/04/world/asia/coronavirus-china.html
     
    #24 RDGoodla, Feb 7, 2020
    Last edited: Feb 7, 2020
  5. Silent_Buddha

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    Starting to get scary. China has revised how it's classifying cases due to the inability to process laboratory reports fast enough due to there being far more requests for laboratory tests than they have the ability to process them.

    So as of today, confirmed cases in China are up to 59,804 with a death toll of 1,367.

    Thankfully the spread outside of China is still limited enough that people can get diagnosed and treated in time. Just 3 confirmed deaths outside of China at the moment.

    Regards,
    SB
     
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  6. iroboto

    iroboto Daft Funk
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    Technically this isn't true.

    The biggest difference the flu has with the coronavirus.
    Is that the viral strain of the flu is called influenza
    the viral strain of the coronavirus is corona.

    they are different families entirely.

    There are 4 strains of influenza, A,B,C,D IIRC. Swine (h1n1) and the other one (h2n2) are all influenzas. You could find modified strains of them in the current flu shot. It's important to note that h1n1 the swine flu that killed a lot of folks back in 2009 is still making it's rounds. Having that flu shot could save your life.

    SARS, MER and COVID2019 are all corona virus'. We currently have no immunity to them and I think we don't have any large scale vaccines to them either. There's no way to get a SARs vaccine that I know of.

    The actual properties of the virus are different, some strains of influenza are unlikely to kill. Others can be really deadly. This is also true with Corona virus'.
    I think with this particular one, I think we should be okay as long as China doesn't break. A lot of policies have already be implemented to slow the rate of infection and it is well localized in China so far.
     
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  7. orangpelupa

    orangpelupa Elite Bug Hunter
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    i keep wondering how can there's no known case in Indonesia. There is in Singapore.

    1. Indonesia hot and humid climate is not good for that virus
    2. Indonesia health department didnt work properly
    3. Indonesia human are badly compatible with the virus
    Im leaning on 1 or 2. Hopefully its point 1.
     
  8. Shifty Geezer

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    It's amazing how the information age is more about misinformation.

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/victor...ered-to-put-pieces-of-hiv-in-it/#53bd020256cb

    Suggestions of bioengineered HIV inserts were from a un-validated research paper. Upon peer review, it's been debunked. There's nothing to see here; just another natural viral mutation.

    Not at all. The spike in numbers was due to change in tracking the incorporates any signs of chest infection instead of waiting for confirmation of coronavirus. Prior to the spike in numbers, the tracking for newly infected looked like this:

    upload_2020-2-14_14-48-15.png

    That's a pretty pronounced downward trend. We also see places like the quarantine at the Arrowe Point Hospital in the Wirral, UK, see zero cases out of 80 kept under observation. This strain of coronavirus doesn't appear to be particularly infectious compared to viruses in general. Certainly the UK health officials aren't treating it as a problem. A confirmed case was taken to hospital in an Uber, but the health officials haven't felt the need to quarantine the driver. Likewise where cases have been known, advice to those who came into contact with the infected is to carry on as normal unless you exhibit symptoms, in which case self-quarantine. That suggests it's not contagious during the incubation period, and not hugely contagious outside. The virus is also vulnerable to standard hygiene measures (disinfectants).

    It's not a highly contagious air-born disease and so far looks less contagious than typical colds and flu. I think the real test case is the UK university. A confirmed case of a student living in close proximity to lots of other students - that'll show if coronavirus can spread quickly or not.
     
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  9. Michellstar

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    When there is smoke....

    Academic stands by research querying Indonesia's claim to be coronavirus-free
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/14/indonesia-coronavirus-academic-harvard-marc-lipsitch
     
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  10. orangpelupa

    orangpelupa Elite Bug Hunter
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    Yep that article is spot on. I also can confirm that it's quite common in Indonesia for "stupid/ignorant" agents that doesn't know what are they doing, doing important stuff. While the "smart/good natured" agents are tasked with desk jobs.

    There's also a culture of "eliminating problems" instead of "identifying and solving problems".

    And the hospitals are already overcrowded as-is. If you don't have tons of money or connection to inside persons... Getting health care could be a nightmare.

    In that regards I'm that person that break queue and easily get good room and care due to a good relation with doctors (seriously, even if you just go to doc for a simple cough, be friendly. Because doctors really can pull some strings that really helps you when you need hospital care) and I also can use the "nepotism" move as some of my family members are doctors.

    If poor people got infected, they probably think it's just "masuk angin" or the usual flu and didn't go to hospital... Then it's all too late. Even if they go, they probably won't be handled by experts but by medical students.

    Hopefully the agents really are doing their jobs and there really no case in Indonesia.
     
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  11. Nisaaru

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    The real question is what's the disinformation and what isn't. I surely don't trust Forbes and any other MSM to define what's true or not.



    Here you can see an US Senator in a DoD internal discussion about the situation. Read between the lines.
     
  12. Shifty Geezer

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    Ignore Forbes and look at the open scientific community responses. The data is there. The suggestion of HIV inserts would never have made it to publication but The Internet is now grabbing info before it's being corroborated. Information moves too fast for people to do sanity checks on it.

    Reading between lines is dangerous and open to imagination. A lot of what he says doesn't actually scan if you look at cases outside China (ignoring the misrepresentation of 'cases have jumped 30% overnight', suggesting 30% growth every day, which isn't at all what's happening). If the virus is as dangerous as he's saying, why is the UK not as worried? If it can be 14 days incubation and contagious before symptoms are shown and aerosolised, it'd be spreading far faster than it presently is. That UK Bus convention would be spawning dozens of infected and the UK would (unless incompetent) be running around like mad to contain them. The Uber driver would be quarantined and every one of his passengers also. All the students in the University would have been locked down into their digs.
     
    #32 Shifty Geezer, Feb 14, 2020
    Last edited: Feb 14, 2020
  13. Silent_Buddha

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    I see. I was just relaying information from a Reuter's article that I read. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...idUSKBN207025?feedType=RSS&feedName=worldNews

    Basically indicating that at least in Hubei province can't keep up with requests for diagnosis due to lack of equipment. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...a-death-world-health-organization/4721591002/ basically confirms that as well.

    So I'm not sure that graph is correct in that cases were going down. Basically, the confirmed cases may have been going down due to a lack of resources available to test cases under the previous classification methods.

    And even when confirmed there is a lack of resources available to treat all cases. So, this strain is either more deadly or spreads faster. Otherwise if it were similar to a common strain, there wouldn't be a lack of resources there to treat it which leads to so many deaths in such a short period of time.

    Death toll in China is now up to 1523 an increase of 156 in the past 2 days. So, not likely to lead to the world coming to an end, but certainly seems to be more deadly than your common virus.

    Regards,
    SB
     
  14. Shifty Geezer

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    Mortality is higher than a typical cold/flu type illness - it's a stronger, harder disease for the body to deal with. Infectiousness doesn't seem to be. Lack of testing gear is just because it's specialised and new and not because soooo many people are getting infected, AFAICT. The major difference is that the disease is harder on the patient, more often requiring them to have medical support until they overcome the disease, whereas normally a cold or flu will spread faster through the general population but no-one counts it because people just stay at home and get over it after a few days. If you think of all those times there's 'been a bug going around', infection is incredibly widespread, but people just get over it. You've less chance of catching Covid-19 than the usual cold, it seems, but if you do get it, you may need hospital support, and it's just the sheer number of people needing support that makes it hard to deal with.
     
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  15. Davros

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    One of the tech youtube channels got a video demonetised just for mentioning that the coronavirus would affect pc parts supply
     
  16. pcchen

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    Note that getting fatality rate by dividing confirmed death by confirmed case is not accurate. It's more like a "best case" scenario, because that means all current confirmed cases will survive (e.g. no new death from current confirmed case). A "worse case" fatality rate can be derived from dividing confirmed death by confirmed cured plus confirmed death, which gives a ~14% fatality rate by current data. So right now we can roughly say that the possible fatality rate is probably between 2% and 14%, assuming the data is accurate. Of course, current estimated fatality rate is probably still on the higher side because the majority of confirmed cases are in Wuhan where medical resources are seriously strained, which will push fatality rate higher.

    However, even at 1% it's still very bad. If it has the same infectiousness rate as influenza, that could mean millions of death around the world if it can't be contained. The 2009 flu pandemic, for example, infected around 700 ~ 1400 million people around the world.

    There's a confirmed death in Taiwan yesterday, who was hospitalized due to pneumonia a few weeks ago, but since he didn't traveled to China, he wasn't checked for COVID-19. He was only diagnosed with COVID-19 after his death. His brother is also infected. It turns out that he's a taxi driver and have some customers who traveled to China.
     
  17. Gubbi

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    Exactly!

    The mortality rate should be calculated as deaths / (deaths+recovered) which is currently at 13% (1874 deaths, 13092 recovered). However there is a huge discrepancy between Wuhan, where mortality rates are as high as 20%, and the rest of China/the world where mortality rates are at 1% or lower.

    There might be two reasons for this: 1.) the number of infected (and subsequent recovered) might be under-reported in Wuhan because people got infected, spread the disease and then recovered before people realized this was no ordinary cold virus. 2.) When the need for medical care exceeds the available resources, mortality increases rapidly.

    When people are properly cared for, mortality rate seems to be around 1%, - twenty times higher than normal flu; Heavily biased against the elderly (~15% mortality rate) and the sick (cancer patients in particular are very vulnerable).
     
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  18. orangpelupa

    orangpelupa Elite Bug Hunter
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    Indonesia health ministry announced that Indonesia hasnt got corona virus due to

    1. The diligent work of the health team
    2. The power of prayers
     
  19. Malo

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    Yeah... any reply to that will likely get this thread moved...
     
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  20. iroboto

    iroboto Daft Funk
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    Well as long as China is able to keep it contained I think we're okay.

    If they can't contain it, given all the level of power they wield over their population, I don't think any other country possibly can.
    They have the best military force for this type of thing (largest number of ground troops) specifically designed not for the purpose of external campaigns but to control their own civilian population. The number of cities and population sizes that they have managed to lock down is incredible. That straight up, locking down like 6% of the worlds population. That's not an easy task to do by any means.

    If they fall to this, I can't see any other country being able to keep order.
     
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