Conspiracy theory plausibility

Conspiracy stuff and the unexplained are thinks that have always fascinated me.
heres my similar thread from a decade ago
https://forum.beyond3d.com/threads/conspiracy-theories-an-other-things.48791/

As theres plenty of smart ppl here, Just wanna see what others think about various conspiracy theories
plausibility 0 (impossible) -> 10 (certainty)

1. Bigfoot exists
2. Another similar cryptoid exists (not strictly a CT)
3. Intelligent alien life has visited earth in the last century
4. Alien probes have visited earth in the last century
5. Reptilians walk amongst us
6 The Q-Anon theories
7. lee harvey oswald was not the lone gunman
8. the twin towers was an inside job
9. chemtrails
10 humans didnt walk on the moon
11. new world order stuff
12 epstein was murdered
13 obama wasnt born in the USA
14 cancer has been cured but big pharma is suppressing it
15 human globals warming is not true
16 the earth is flat
17 a bible like god exists
18 MMR vaccine is bad

others?

 

The number at the start is what I think, so basically only epstein & JFK I believe are likely

1 Bigfoot exists
3 Another similar cryptoid exists (not strictly a CT)
2 Intelligent alien life has visited earth in the last century
4 Alien probes have visited earth in the last century
0 Reptilians walk amongst us
0 The Q-Anon theories
7 lee harvey oswald was not the lone gunman
1 the twin towers was an inside job
0 chemtrails
1 humans didnt walk on the moon
2 new world order stuff
7 epstein was murdered
2 obama wasnt born in the USA
1 cancer has been cured but big pharma is suppressing it
1 human globals warming is not true
0 the earth is flat
0 a bible like god exists
1 MMR vaccine is bad

 

? That doesnt really make sense, eg years ago their were only conspiracy theories that the US government is spying on its own people, very little evidence (even though it was illegal in US law) until snowden lifted the lid on it, turned out to be true.
Or the CT of the russian government staging attacks on their own citizens and blaming others until they got caught doing it or another american conspiracy theory that turned out to be true, project northwood.
So very occasionally some CT do turn out to be valid, yes its fuck all percentage wise.

@orangepelupa yes the covid stuff, ppl believing its in the governments self interest to do great damage to their economies by closing great swaths of the country and borrowing large sums to try and mitigate the caused recession,

 

well the latest 'guess' is 36 intelligent alien civilisations in our galaxy, thus billions and billions in the universe (channeling sagan ;P) https://www.livescience.com/how-many-alien-civilizations-exist.html
not that I agree with those numbers, but I have no idea (like everyone else),
Also someone has done the maths and actually to visit every star in the galaxy is not like an impossible task, even at slower than lightspeed (sure it is for one person), I tried to have a google for it but came up empty handed, IIRC it was something like if some civilisation started say when the dinosaurs got wiped out, they would of visited each star in the galaxy long before humans existed.
the questions were just a mental exercise, just gauging what others think, myself WRT aliens coming here in the last 100 years, I rate that maybe 2/10 which is extremely unlikely maybe 1/10,000

semi related, basically once a civilizational becomes intersteller it will 'rapidly' visit every place in the galaxy

https://www.open.edu/openlearn/scie...my/how-long-would-it-take-colonise-the-galaxy

https://www.astro.umd.edu/~miller/teaching/honr/suppl09.pdf