Conspiracy theory plausibility

Discussion in 'General Discussion' started by zed, Aug 7, 2020.

  1. zed

    zed
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    Conspiracy stuff and the unexplained are thinks that have always fascinated me.
    heres my similar thread from a decade ago
    https://forum.beyond3d.com/threads/conspiracy-theories-an-other-things.48791/

    As theres plenty of smart ppl here, Just wanna see what others think about various conspiracy theories
    plausibility 0 (impossible) -> 10 (certainty)

    1. Bigfoot exists
    2. Another similar cryptoid exists (not strictly a CT)
    3. Intelligent alien life has visited earth in the last century
    4. Alien probes have visited earth in the last century
    5. Reptilians walk amongst us
    6 The Q-Anon theories
    7. lee harvey oswald was not the lone gunman
    8. the twin towers was an inside job
    9. chemtrails
    10 humans didnt walk on the moon
    11. new world order stuff
    12 epstein was murdered
    13 obama wasnt born in the USA
    14 cancer has been cured but big pharma is suppressing it
    15 human globals warming is not true
    16 the earth is flat
    17 a bible like god exists
    18 MMR vaccine is bad

    others?
     
    #1 zed, Aug 7, 2020
    Last edited: Aug 7, 2020
  2. zed

    zed
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    The number at the start is what I think, so basically only epstein & JFK I believe are likely

    1 Bigfoot exists
    3 Another similar cryptoid exists (not strictly a CT)
    2 Intelligent alien life has visited earth in the last century
    4 Alien probes have visited earth in the last century
    0 Reptilians walk amongst us
    0 The Q-Anon theories
    7 lee harvey oswald was not the lone gunman
    1 the twin towers was an inside job
    0 chemtrails
    1 humans didnt walk on the moon
    2 new world order stuff
    7 epstein was murdered
    2 obama wasnt born in the USA
    1 cancer has been cured but big pharma is suppressing it
    1 human globals warming is not true
    0 the earth is flat
    0 a bible like god exists
    1 MMR vaccine is bad
     
  3. orangpelupa

    orangpelupa Elite Bug Hunter
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    • Microsoft gonna chip everyone.
    • COVID19 is a hoax by governments all around the world.
    • Reputable news outlets are controlled by government. Real news are from Facebook.
    • Eucalyptus kills COVID19 but the big pharma hides that fact.
     
  4. Daozang

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    Who cares?
    :p
    Each of these is conjecture... The question asked usually has no real answer (there are some very obvious exceptions to this).
    But there is an answer attached with them.
    And not enough evidence to judge the validity of that answer.
    Because, if there was enough evidence, it wouldn't need a conspiracy theory to go with.
    It is after that point, a matter of belief.
    So...
     
  5. zed

    zed
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    ? That doesnt really make sense, eg years ago their were only conspiracy theories that the US government is spying on its own people, very little evidence (even though it was illegal in US law) until snowden lifted the lid on it, turned out to be true.
    Or the CT of the russian government staging attacks on their own citizens and blaming others until they got caught doing it or another american conspiracy theory that turned out to be true, project northwood.
    So very occasionally some CT do turn out to be valid, yes its fuck all percentage wise.

    @orangepelupa yes the covid stuff, ppl believing its in the governments self interest to do great damage to their economies by closing great swaths of the country and borrowing large sums to try and mitigate the caused recession, :lol:
     
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  6. Daozang

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    3. Intelligent alien life has visited earth in the last century

    For this to work, I have to assume that there is intelligent life elsewhere in the universe, that they are capable of space travel, and that they are close enough to visit us, or have developed technology that can enable them to travel anywhere they want at faster than light speeds, among many, many other things.
    All these are questions as well, and I have no definitive answer to them.
    So how am I supposed to answer the first one? By simply accepting that some of the requirements are positive as well.
    Let's say that the chance of there being intelligent life, other than us in the universe is a pretty good one.
    An educated guess that isn't enough to answer the first question.
    Now let's add the chances of said intelligent life being capable of space travel, and the chances are diminishing rapidly.
    Continue factoring in the requirements and the chances are becoming astronomically not in favor. ;)
    But there are still chances that this might be the case. Even if it's a one in a quintillion.
    Those odds simply tell me I shouldn't take this theory very seriously, and, that if someone tries to sell me some tickets to another galaxy on the spaceship of his dear friend, the alien, I should probably, decline.

    The requirements that need to be met for many of those theories to be valid, are clearly not known facts, and, many require rampant speculation or, a conspiracy theory of their own to be perceived as facts.
    This is why, they are called conspiracy theories. ;)
    Now, all conspiracy theories have a chance to be real even if the odds are not on their favor.
    And the cases that do come true, do nothing to change the fact that they were simply conspiracy theories until someone provided evidence to the contrary.

    I have to say one more thing.
    Asking the question, does the US government spy on its citizens, is one thing, and the answer has mostly to do with trust.
    Asking if the US government is spying on its citizens using a mixture of alien technology and secret software developed by DARPA and Bill Gates, is a conspiracy theory.
    Asking if the US government is spying on its citizens using PRISM and Carnivore, is a report by the Washington Post and The Guardian.
    Answering the first one correct, doesn't automatically validate the second one as well.
     
    #6 Daozang, Aug 7, 2020
    Last edited: Aug 7, 2020
  7. zed

    zed
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    well the latest 'guess' is 36 intelligent alien civilisations in our galaxy, thus billions and billions in the universe (channeling sagan ;P) https://www.livescience.com/how-many-alien-civilizations-exist.html
    not that I agree with those numbers, but I have no idea (like everyone else),
    Also someone has done the maths and actually to visit every star in the galaxy is not like an impossible task, even at slower than lightspeed (sure it is for one person), I tried to have a google for it but came up empty handed, IIRC it was something like if some civilisation started say when the dinosaurs got wiped out, they would of visited each star in the galaxy long before humans existed.
    the questions were just a mental exercise, just gauging what others think, myself WRT aliens coming here in the last 100 years, I rate that maybe 2/10 which is extremely unlikely maybe 1/10,000

    semi related, basically once a civilizational becomes intersteller it will 'rapidly' visit every place in the galaxy

    https://www.open.edu/openlearn/scie...my/how-long-would-it-take-colonise-the-galaxy

    https://www.astro.umd.edu/~miller/teaching/honr/suppl09.pdf
     
    #7 zed, Aug 7, 2020
    Last edited: Aug 7, 2020
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  8. francisbaud

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    Bigfoot exists : 1 If it was existing, we would likely have plenty of videos of it. The videos available are not convincing imo. I'm willing to reconsider my position if evidences are shown
     
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