Baseless Next Generation Rumors with no Technical Merits [post E3 2019, pre GDC 2020] [XBSX, PS5]

Discussion in 'Console Industry' started by BRiT, Jun 9, 2019.

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  1. BRiT

    BRiT (>• •)>⌐■-■ (⌐■-■)
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    Well you've seen how he wants the Logo to look.
     
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  2. VitaminB6

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    His vision is unique and beautiful
    Same CPU arch
    Same GPU arch
    Both have RT
    Both have VRS
    Both have 3D Audio
    Both have NVMe SSD
     
    #8302 VitaminB6, Mar 7, 2020
    Last edited: Mar 7, 2020
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  3. PSman1700

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    I do remember that, wasn't that called vga aperture size, or something like that?

    It's probably enough, but you can't have enough of memory as allways. Think that PS4 used about 2 to 3GB for graphics memory, so at the least 8 or higher for graphics alone in PS5 would be rather big improvement, two to three times more for just vram.

    If that 16GB GDDR6 is for everything, it sounds low to the ears, but i think it will be more then enough. Some pc games already go 32GB though, but that's probably bad optimisations to blame (lazy devs? :p). Aside from star citizen halo projects which need it.
     
  4. AbsoluteBeginner

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    I know they will get it lower, because if they didnt, 16GB of GDDR6 (14Gbps) would be 186$. But I still dont think its right, you are looking at 71% increase of price for GB going from GDDR5 to GDDR6 (for 2000 pieces).

    Obviously dealing with million units price will be going down, but not infinitely, and that price hike over over GDDR5 still says they will be paying more per million modules vs GDDR5.

    Here is digitimes report from 2017 on prices of GDDR5.

    https://www.gamersnexus.net/guides/3032-vega-56-cost-of-hbm2-and-necessity-to-use-it

    So this would result in price of 78-102$ for 12GB (6.50$ and 8.50$ per module).

    And GDDR6 price is higher per GB then it was for GDDR5 back in 2017, and you have 4-8GB more RAM. I dont see how price for RAM will be flat. In fact, nothing points in that direction.

    Keep it in mind they wont be buying low clocked chips, lowest they will go is 14Gbps, and from what it looks - PS5 might go fot 16-18Gbps.
     
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  5. N2O

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    Very unique indeed.
     
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  6. N2O

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    I rather hope they save money to making more rams in mid-gen upgrade, due to coronavirus in Korea the ram price won't going down anytime soon.
     
  7. PSman1700

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    It is the best and perhaps only way, exotic hardware wouldn't give better results, only worse. All in all i think what the PS5 and XSX are going to get is the best consoles ever had probably. A cell 2 or emotion egine 2 would only hamper development for the first 3 years or so.

    If there ever is going to be a mid-gen upgrade. PS5 and XSX already have 8k, SSD, 9 to 12TF gpus, powerfull cpu's. What can they advertise with? For the Pro and X, the biggest thing was '4k'. In 3 years most will have 4k TV's, 8k native gaming seems very far away.
     
  8. Globalisateur

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    We'll see about all of that when the consoles will be released this winter. Better wait for more concrete information before making lists.
     
  9. anexanhume

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    @MrFox is right that there are factors that are hidden from us with mass market prices. We can reasonably believe the XSX has a BOM in the 450-520 range. Either Zhuge is wrong (relying on Bloomberg's reporting), or the numbers you are using isn't reflective of reality. Both can't be true. I'm inclined to believe Zhuge isn't wrong because I don't see MS taking $100+ loss on a console.
     
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  10. BRiT

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    Maybe MS saved enough money by skipping the Logo Reveal event.
     
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  11. MrFox

    MrFox Deludedly Fantastic
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    In 2017...
    Ddr4 was $5 per GB
    Ddr3 was $4 per GB

    I am comparing ddr3 to gddr5, and ddr4 to gddr6, I believe it's a fair comparison since both transitions had a premium attached.

    We now have a lot more competition in the gddr6 offering with micron, samsung, and hynix. The launch premium of production cost from gddr5 to gddr6 was 20% with a reduction to 10% later. We'll be entering the third year of production and second node from the memory suppliers.

    The launch premium on gddr6 was driven by a severe lack of initial supply.

    Also, learning from our mistakes, we should figure out why we thought 8GB of gddr5 would be $160 instead of $88 back in 2013, I think we missed the mark because we didn't follow the difference between short term spikes and long term contracts that were dependent on the upcoming new node from samsung. A new node doubled the capacity for almost the same die size.
     
    #8311 MrFox, Mar 7, 2020
    Last edited: Mar 7, 2020
  12. VitaminB6

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    MS and Sony should just co-design a console next time around. Slap a different logo on the front
    My point is that both consoles will be extremely similar. Both Sony and MS have great teams and they both have AMD at their disposal in the design process. Sure one company might prioritize certain things where the other does not but all in all they'll probably be very similar consoles.
     
  13. AbsoluteBeginner

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    Well that guy has literally put 70$ range in BOM costs, so yes, I would actually agree it will be in that range.

    We cannot deny that GPU prices, RAM prices and 7nm have shot up from 28/16nm so MS will almost certainly eat some cost.
     
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  14. anexanhume

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    Yes, we can. That's precisely what we're talking about. I would argue that in the face of APU and NAND cost differentials to previous gen, the memory can't afford to be more expensive. We've shown evidence that manufacturing costs supports that as completely plausible given a reduction from 12 to 10 chips in MS's case.
     
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  15. AzBat

    AzBat Agent of the Bat
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    What makes you think they're not already doing that? ;)

    Tommy McClain
     
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  16. AbsoluteBeginner

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    And yet we also see 71% increase of cost GB/$ for GDDR6 in comparison to GDDR5.
    Not only that, prices are looking to rise again in 2020.

    https://www.guru3d.com/news-story/graphics-cards-could-become-even-more-expensive-in-2020.html

    I dont think GDDR6 prices per GB compared to GDDR5 support your argument (even for lower clocked chips, let alone cream of the crop rumored to be used in PS5).
     
    #8316 AbsoluteBeginner, Mar 7, 2020
    Last edited: Mar 7, 2020
  17. chris1515

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    The PS4 had to stream data from a HDD, 4 GB of RAM would have been a nightmare.

    The speed of loading an asset in memory will be multiplied by 93 if XSX SSD is 3.75 GB/s and more on PS5. This is by far the biggest improvement in the two consoles. We speak about two orders of magnitude improvement. It mitigates the need to have more RAM for preload more assets because the storage is too slow to load it fast enough and it does not replace memory because you don't need to load something for the current frame but the faster is the storage the less assets you need to preload in memory.

    16 GB of RAM is enough with an SSD. We could have 48 GB of HBM2e in next-generation consoles if it was needed to work with an HDD I can't imagine the loading time and the limitation of the streaming engine. Out of having enough memory to contain the full game, the data need to be load in memory from storage and you can't go faster than the slowest element.
     
    #8317 chris1515, Mar 7, 2020
    Last edited: Mar 7, 2020
  18. PSman1700

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    You misunderstand, 2/3gb vram was used, if ps5 can use 8 to 10 just for vram thats a big increase.

    Yes more then 16 isnt needed probably, though you still cant replace gddr or dram with an ssd, its still slower. 32gb gddr6 would be even more performant.
     
  19. chris1515

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    I take the bet than out of the texture because we know we can reach the greatness of 1 texel per pixel at 4k on PS5 and I am sure on XSX too. All games will have no problem at all with games packed with polygonal details, or full of great high-end 3d audio and plenty of animation data. Having 32 GB of GDDR6 is not useful if you can have 16 GB of memory with an SSD to do the same job. For example, 32 GB of GDDR6 will not give you better textures.

    Choose for example between 16 GB of HBM2 2.4 gbps three of four stacks and 32 GB of GDDR6 in next-gen consoles knowing the speed of SSD, I took the 16 GB of HBM2 because of the memory bandwidth.
     
  20. anexanhume

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    You were told why those numbers were not valid and you ignored it. Your link doesn't support the 71% increase. It supports rising prices, which is widely acknowledged. However, the contracts may already be in place, leaving it irrelevant.
     
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