AMD: RDNA 3 Speculation, Rumours and Discussion

[xpea]

Those are averages for 2021, which is in its second half. The charts tell us more about past than about future.

I shared these charts because they contradict your statement ("TSMC is curently manufacturing almost nothing for Nvidia"). But if you have another source that tells otherwise, please feel free to share.
And 2021 / 5nm is not past in my book... Anyway, regarding 2022, Nvidia has secured much higher 5nm allocation at TSMC than in 2021...

 

[Bondrewd]

I shared these charts because they contradict your statement ("TSMC is curently manufacturing almost nothing for Nvidia").

They're bs.

Nvidia has secured much higher 5nm allocation at TSMC than in 2021...

Yea, 0 -> something.
You tell me.

 

[Deleted member 13524]

Spot the bs.

Samsung using 5% of TSMC?


And how is Nvidia getting a whopping 21% of 7nm in 2021? Consumer cards are all using Samsung 8nm and I don't really believe they're selling that many A100 chips. Creating volume for Switch 2's Odin?

Does Broadcom have anything on 7nm? I expected to see Bitmain in that pie chart, but Broadcom?

 

[troyan]

GA100 is 826mm^2 huge and they are using TSMC for their new NVSwitch chip.

 

[xpea]

And how is Nvidia getting a whopping 21% of 7nm in 2021? Consumer cards are all using Samsung 8nm and I don't really believe they're selling that many A100 chips. Creating volume for Switch 2's Odin?

Does Broadcom have anything on 7nm? I expected to see Bitmain in that pie chart, but Broadcom?

Nvidia datacenter sales are on the sharp rise. From last quarter report:

Record sales in the data center segment
In the data center segment, fourth quarter revenue reached a record $ 1.9 billion, up 97% from the previous year. For the year as a whole, sales reached a record $ 6.7 billion, an increase of 124%.

6.7 billion USD only for datacenter in fiscal 2021. So yeah, A100 is selling like hot cakes.

 

[Nebuchadnezzar]

Samsung using 5% of TSMC?


And how is Nvidia getting a whopping 21% of 7nm in 2021? Consumer cards are all using Samsung 8nm and I don't really believe they're selling that many A100 chips. Creating volume for Switch 2's Odin?

Does Broadcom have anything on 7nm? I expected to see Bitmain in that pie chart, but Broadcom?

Qualcomm has no 5nm TSMC designs that we know of either.

 

[Bondrewd]

Samsung using 5% of TSMC?

Qualcomm being there, MTK being there this year mostly, MTK being too low on N7 pie (think they're more wafers than AMD H2) etc etc.

Too much dumb shit that outright contradicts talking heads during ERs.
Duh.

 

[CarstenS]

In the near future, Nvidia will be manufacturing both Lovelace and Hopper at TSMC, […]

Is that more than a rumor yet?

 

[CarstenS]

Nvidia datacenter sales are on the sharp rise. From last quarter report:

6.7 billion USD only for datacenter in fiscal 2021. So yeah, A100 is selling like hot cakes.

I wonder though what the distribution between "visible" A100 sales like in the Top500 supercomputers and the not so visible sales like in cloud-instances, academia and smaller-scale installations is.
From the top500 alone with 85% sellable yield and thus56 good chips per wafer, you'd have enought A100's for the June-List of top500 with just 500 wafers.

On another note: Probably some Mellanox ICs (FPGAs?) in that Nvidia-Figure at TSMC?

 

[Kaotik]

Creating volume for Switch 2's Odin?

Why are people still going on about that? Orin is too fat for any handheld and there's nothing suggesting Nintendo is bringing replacement soon or that it would use Tegra like Switch did. all the supposed "switch pro" 110% confirmed rumors were nothing but hogwash

 

[Deleted member 13524]

6.7 billion USD only for datacenter in fiscal 2021. So yeah, A100 is selling like hot cakes.

$6.7B on DGX A100 servers that cost $200 000 each (assuming they'll only sell DGX A100 which is definitely not true for FY2021 but let's be generous), would mean they sold around 33 500 DGX A100 servers. Each DGX has 8× A100 chips so it's 268k A100 chips.

Each 300mm N7 wafer should be able to produce around 65-70 A100 chips. Let's assume 55 chips due to yields (although the A100 has tons of redundancy so yields should actually be good).

So with 268k chips sold we're looking at 4900 7nm waffers.

There's just no way that less than 5000 waffers corresponds to over 20% of TSMC's whole production for N7, considering they're producing in the orders of millions of N7 wafers per quarter.

 

[Bondrewd]

Orin is too fat

There's not one Orin but a few.

Mellanox ICs (FPGAs?) in that Nvidia-Figure at TSMC?

YES!
But in raw wafer count that is still not-much.

$6.7B on DGX A100 servers that cost $200 000 each (assuming they'll only sell DGX A100 which is definitely not true for FY2021 but let's be generous), would mean they sold around 33 500 DGX A100 servers

Oh c'mon let's account for at least hyperscaler discounts first.
Also A100 is like 26 weeks lead time lol.
Looks like nV is having a struggle moment with shitting those out.

 

[Deleted member 13524]

Why are people still going on about that? Orin is too fat for any handheld and there's nothing suggesting Nintendo is bringing replacement soon or that it would use Tegra like Switch did. all the supposed "switch pro" 110% confirmed rumors were nothing but hogwash

Rumors said it would be Orin-based, as in same family (e.g. Tegra 4 was also a family of chips). It's not the big Orin we see in their current automotive offerings.

 

[PSman1700]

Damn Apple eating up most of manufacturing lol. Console is just a small one there.

 

[Kaotik]

Rumors said it would be Orin-based, as in same family (e.g. Tegra 4 was also a family of chips). It's not the big Orin we see in their current automotive offerings.

Still, all the "confirmed next gen switch/switch pro" rumors were nothing but hogwash, it was Switch OLED all the time.
Sure there will be new consoles in future from Nintendo too but people are too obsessed with the generation updates, clearly Nintendo cares little of that and more about finding new niches and formats. They're not tied in with MS or Sony competition like they might have been in the past, they made it pretty clear with Wii and even more so with Wii U and Switch.
Maybe they will use another Tegra-ish chip, maybe not, but it's clear none of the rumors were based on anything real.

 

[Malo]

Damn Apple eating up most of manufacturing lol. Console is just a small one there.

That's 5nm, where currently no consoles or released GPUs are being made.

 

[PSman1700]

That's 5nm, where currently no consoles or released GPUs are being made.

True but still, how much of the share would apple stand for if consoles/GPU where on 5nm? No idea about current numbers but didnt the 6s sell in the range of 220million phones alone?

Edit: Samsung outdoes apple seeing the numbers, even today.

 

[Deleted member 13524]

Still, all the "confirmed next gen switch/switch pro" rumors were nothing but hogwash, it was Switch OLED all the time.

There are reliable leakers / data miners acknowledging Bloomberg's stories of a new Switch with an updated SoC.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1403200552473829377

The guys over at DigitalFoundry also claim there's definitely a new, more powerful Switch being developed according to game developers. It seems they've been instructed earlier this year to start making UI elements for 4K output on their recent games, meaning they want the new games to be "aware" of a new hardware capable of displaying 4K output.

It could be that the Switch Pro was discarded due to covid and the semiconductor shortage (and booming sales on the old model), or perhaps it had its announcement and release postponed by a few quarters. But the aggregated info about a successor that was, up until some point, planned to release later this year or early 2022, is pretty solid.


But none of the info makes any direct claims about performance. 4K output doesn't mean anything other than the display heads supporting that resolution and the devs having to support that scale on the UI.
An Orin-based Tegra for a Switch Pro/2 will obviously be more powerful than the underclocked Tegra X1 from 2015 and support at least HDMI 2.0 or DisplayPort 1.2 output, but it's not like those are much of an achievement in 2021.

 

[neckthrough]

I mean, is the cellphone experience really improving that dramatically to justify the immense pressure it places on our silicon capacity? In the early days of Android/IOS the pace of progress was definitely dramatic, but now? I used to replace my Nexus phones every couple of years, but I bought an iphone xs 3 years back and I feel zero need to upgrade it. But I suppose I'm in the minority. People must have the latest and greatest (and have tons of disposable income).

 

[no-X]

I shared these charts because they contradict your statement ("TSMC is curently manufacturing almost nothing for Nvidia").

Nothing compared to the volumes related to Lovelace / Hopper era, which will be both manufactured at TSMC, as I stated in my previous post. Please don't take my statements out of context.