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DegustatoR
Legend
GCN4 more likeWe're saying that after each leak since RDNA1, no ?
Bondrewd
Veteran
Things you won't be able to afford?
I guess.
neckthrough
Regular
That's a little unfair. RDNA1 was a strong architectural step forward and RDNA2 was a massive upgrade in their physical design. The challenge is that NVIDIA is a slippery moving target, and being ahead allowed them to move the market in unanticipated ways.
Frenetic Pony
Veteran
Ok, so the max price has to be between 1200-1500 usd. So we're looking at half that, say the equivalent of a 6950 (call it 20% faster than 6900?) next year costing, what, $750 max? That's purely linear scaling, which GPUs tend to get exponential towards the high end, not linear. So realistically... $650? Something solidly faster than a 3080 for $50 less, as an initial guess. I mean, that sounds pretty cool, I'll take that. I'm sure Nvidia will roughly match too.
So most people won't be able to afford the max ridiculous highest end GPUs from either vendor. Well that's not really a deviation from now is it. But if it means GPUs more powerful to significantly more powerful than the consoles come down in price, well it's still a win.
Not too sure about that if it releases around mid 2022 and the rumored performance is true.
Bondrewd
Veteran
Oh noes, no, AMD wanna snap that fruity neck.
NVidia isn't a mobile player for over half a decade you see.
No effing way they're selling that for this few bucks.
Frenetic Pony
Veteran
I mean, competition exists. It's not like AMD are going to have some monopoly on GPUs and can just price it however they want. And it's not like the die sizes are going to necessarily prevent this. Based on predicted 5nm shrinks, increased yields, etc. the production costs of the dies should definitely be below $300; at $1,500 they'll still be making a highly sizable profit margin versus production costs.
So while it's certainly not what AMD would want to sell it at, it's not like they either get to sell it at what they totally want nor are they being priced out of this hypothetical selling point by production costs. Combined with increased competition thanks to Intel coming soon, I don't see how the fears that RDNA3 is going to be totally ridiculous in price can be realized.
Bondrewd
Veteran
2023, yes.
2022? Lol.
Eh, the real issue is them doing some real funky packaging works with questionable yields very much on the table.
Nope.
Just no.
D
Deleted member 90741
Guest
Add scalper tax on top and it is going to cost as much as a 2 year old pre owned Toyota.
Bondrewd
Veteran
I love when the Moore's is dead.Add scalper tax on top and it is going to cost as much as a 2 year old pre owned Toyota.
At least DC parts can chew the upfront costs.
D
Deleted member 90741
Guest
I think the last year has shown us quite the opposite. A lot of people are willing to pay much more than historical MSRP to get their hands on a card. We’ve basically showed AMD and Nvidia what they can get away with.
Can’t even find a 6700 XT for $900. It’s utter madness.
How legit were the RDNA2 rumors? Infinity cache was the real deal but everything else didn’t really live up to the hype.
I’m not banking on anything exciting on the hardware front for 4-5 years. It’s gonna be all about what developers can do with the new tools in the toolbox - RT, mesh shaders, VRS.
neckthrough
Regular
There are 2 parts to this story. The first is the general price creep. While AMD and Nvidia have increased their MSRP at a higher rate than inflation, at least some of that is attributable to direct and transitive effects of the slowdown of Moore's Law. The generational Perf/$ increases we are accustomed to are unsustainable: $/xtor is not scaling, which leads to direct cost increase. Perf/W isn't scaling, which means more expensive cooling solutions are required. Larger dies need to be built, which compounds all the other problems and introduces others (yield, packaging).
The recent bubble is a totally different story. I hope nobody learns the wrong lessons from it. Demand won't stay at pandemic levels -- not in this large a volume. I don't believe $1500 is viable as anything but an ultra-niche card. But then with all the inflation that's about to hit (everything except salaries, obviously), pretty soon the numbers won't really mean what we think they mean.
Gamers or miners? I suspect the gamers willing to pay these prices are the same small group of people who were willing to pay 1200$ for a 2080ti. I personally think they risk driving people to decide it isn't worth the hassle and just buy a console. PC offers less advantages than ever over a console this gen. We need more people with GPUs that can noticeably outclass the consoles, not less.
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