AMD: Navi Speculation, Rumours and Discussion

Discussion in 'Architecture and Products' started by Jawed, Mar 23, 2016.

Tags:
  1. no-X

    Veteran

    Joined:
    May 28, 2005
    Messages:
    2,217
    Likes Received:
    151
    2012 - 3 - Tahiti, Pitcairn & Cape Verde (28nm debut)
    2013 - 3 - Hawaii & Bonaire + Oland
    2014 - 1 - Tonga
    2015 - 1 - Fiji
    2016 - 2 - Polaris 10 & 11 (14nm debut)
    2017 - 2 - Vega 10 + Polaris 12
    2018 - 2 - Vega Mobile & Vega 20

    I'd say 2 GPUs per year since the launch of GCN (at the average).
     
  2. Alexko

    Veteran Subscriber

    Joined:
    Aug 31, 2009
    Messages:
    4,292
    Likes Received:
    722
    I know it's a bit silly because it's not based on much at all, but I have a bad feeling about Navi. We had lots of hype about Polaris, lots of hype about Vega, and ultimately they were decent, at best, but underwhelming. And now, with Navi? We barely know anything at all. AMD is dead silent. I have a hunch that AMD is treating GCN as it was treating the Bulldozer family while working on Zen: just doing the bare minimum to keep the lights on until the real product can be released, which would be the post-Navi generation.

    I hope I'm wrong but I fear we may not get any real competition until 2020, at best.
     
  3. Anarchist4000

    Veteran Regular

    Joined:
    May 8, 2004
    Messages:
    1,387
    Likes Received:
    347
    That would make sense with Vega20 seemingly being a MCM-ish design with xGMI. Gaming Vega should have been able to do the same, but I'm guessing there were issues with the geometry bottleneck that Navi may address. AMD likely still needs multiple chip variants unless they roll out FP64 on all consumer cards. Vega20+Navi might suffice until GCN is phased out. At that point we may be looking at x86 instruction sets as opposed to GCN with far more integrated memory systems.
     
  4. Wynix

    Veteran Regular

    Joined:
    Feb 23, 2013
    Messages:
    1,037
    Likes Received:
    57
    I hope Sony/MS hold enough sway to force AMD to put in more effort.
     
  5. Alexko

    Veteran Subscriber

    Joined:
    Aug 31, 2009
    Messages:
    4,292
    Likes Received:
    722
    Are they planning a new console before the post-navi generation?
     
  6. ToTTenTranz

    Legend Veteran Subscriber

    Joined:
    Jul 7, 2008
    Messages:
    8,845
    Likes Received:
    3,491
    This is Wang's exact quote on the matter on PCWorld's article:

    He specifically mentions a new architecture or incremental architecture upgrade or process change.
    His following comments were about AMD's graphics releases gaining momentum to guarantee release schedules that are "more fun".

    As mentioned in a previous post, AMD starting to release a single chip per year would result in AMD actually losing momentum because they've been releasing more than one graphics product per year on average (especially if we count with iGPUs).
    There are also statements claiming that RTG had "some wastage on the GPU roadmap" while Raja was there, though the reason for that seems to navigate between "Raja's will" and Sony demanding too many changes to Navi.



    So given the information above, I think it's safe to assume that AMD is planning to increase the number of GPUs being released every year, not decrease as one-GPU-per-year would imply.
    Though a "tick" or "tock" per year probably doesn't mean an entire family of GPUs every year either. Up until 2012 AMD had a pretty decent track record of 3/4 distinct GPU chips per year.
    Even the 2012 GCN launch lineup "only" brought 3 distinct GPU chips (Cape Verde, Immortal Pitcairn and Tahiti), with older Terascale 2 chips filling the gaps on the low end. In 2013 AMD released another 2 distinct chips now on GCN2 (Bonaire and Hawaii).
    And then Bulldozer's losses started making an effect on the whole company, and the severe R&D cuts had an impact on GPU releases.



    Vega 10 and Raven Ridge Vega for 2017; Vega M and Vega 20 for 2018.
    Why wouldn't they count if it's not a consumer desktop card? Regardless, it seems Vega 20 will indeed see a consumer release according to the PCWorld article (though maybe not in 2018?).


    Unless the 1070 -> 1170 performance upgrade is substantially smaller than what we saw in previous generations, these bullet points seem mutually exclusive.
    To be honest, I don't expect the Navi RX670/680 to be on the level of nvidia's 70/80 series. AMD's x70/x80 have been countering nvidia's x60 for 4 years now, since the GTX 960 was positioned against the R9 285.
     
    ImSpartacus and Alexko like this.
  7. ImSpartacus

    Newcomer

    Joined:
    Jun 30, 2015
    Messages:
    245
    Likes Received:
    186
    I'm not trying to measure AMD's total engineering capacity. I'm trying to find a situation where the "1 chip/year comment" makes sense.

    If you count "everything", then you blow through 1 chip/year easily.
    • AMD's semi-custom business does an average of 1 chip/year by itself since its inception.
      • 2013 - 2 - XB1 & PS4
      • 2014 - 0
      • 2015 - 0
      • 2016 - 3 - PS4Pro, PS4S & XB1S
      • 2017 - 1 - XB1X
      • 2018 - 1 - Vega M
    • And Raven Ridge isn't the only APU in the last half decade. Do all of these "count"?
      • 2011 - 2 - Llano & Brazos
      • 2012 - 1 - Trinity
      • 2013 - 2 - Richland & Kabini
      • 2014 - 2 - Kaveri & Beema
      • 2015 - 2 - Carrizo & Carrizo-L
      • 2016 - 2 - Bristol Ridge & Stoney Ridge
      • 2017 - 1 - Raven Ridge
      • 2018 - 0
    • Then we have to count all of the little OEM-friendly GPUs (e.g. Oland, Polaris 12, etc) that we see every couple years. No way those ever go away.
    There's simply no realistic way for AMD to get down to 1 chip/year unless they are talking about only major dGPU releases, hence the criteria for my original list.
     
  8. Anarchist4000

    Veteran Regular

    Joined:
    May 8, 2004
    Messages:
    1,387
    Likes Received:
    347
    With the upcoming Chromebooks, KabyG, and AMD APUs the "OEM-friendly" designs could get phased out in favor of more compact designs. At least now that APUs have comparable performance. Really don't need the dGPU outside of the top tiers and workstations. Even then it wouldn't be surprising to see a Threadripper/Epyc APU just for compute acceleration with the added memory channels. Some of the Vega20 and Infinity roadmap already suggest that. May be a 2nd socket, but a 2S consumer board may be practical.
     
  9. Frenetic Pony

    Newcomer

    Joined:
    Nov 12, 2011
    Messages:
    228
    Likes Received:
    47
    No, Sony just recently announced the PS5 would come in 2021. "Coincidentally" a brand new, post GCN architecture was announced by AMD, to hit by 2021, around a month before that.

    Whatever the PS5 uses, it's promised to be a completely new architecture. Would love to see a concentration on fast raytracing and splatting performance, Polys and Raster are getting too expensive for making games. In contrast voxels and related data structures can be a lot easier to work with from an art perspective, not to mention things like volumetrics and GI performance, and programming, is much, much easier. In fact programming with tracing in general is easier.
     
    milk likes this.
  10. itsmydamnation

    Veteran Regular

    Joined:
    Apr 29, 2007
    Messages:
    1,187
    Likes Received:
    287
    Location:
    Australia
    When did Sony announce 2021?
     
  11. Wynix

    Veteran Regular

    Joined:
    Feb 23, 2013
    Messages:
    1,037
    Likes Received:
    57
    Post navi is expected around 2020, Sony will want final dev kits well before post navi is ready.
    At best we can expect Navi with next gen special sauce.
     
  12. Picao84

    Veteran Regular

    Joined:
    Feb 15, 2010
    Messages:
    1,158
    Likes Received:
    422
    pharma and iMacmatician like this.
  13. Alexko

    Veteran Subscriber

    Joined:
    Aug 31, 2009
    Messages:
    4,292
    Likes Received:
    722
    If accurate, it confirms my fears: no high-end before 2021 is just… Bulldozer all over again. Still, I thought Navi was supposed to be the last iteration of GCN, not the brand new architecture. So which is it? I suppose the whole chiplet thing could be real, in which case a dual-Navi 10 could be pretty good, but I'm not optimistic.
     
    Lightman likes this.
  14. Frenetic Pony

    Newcomer

    Joined:
    Nov 12, 2011
    Messages:
    228
    Likes Received:
    47
    About 2 weeks ago. Straight to The Wallstreet Journal from the CEO of their Entertainment division.

    Supposedly the next Xbox could arrive in 2020. No doubt because MS isn't doing very well this generation.

    That one could be Navi. Or the first run of AMD's new gen, done pre consumer GPU release just for MS. They did it before with the 360 so there's precedent.

    Or it could be Nvidia, the Switch shows they're finally willing to do consoles on more, generous terms. Or heck Qualcomm for all we know. Or just a false rumor. Either way the Sony thing seems like a far better bet with the planned release date for both "just so happening" to line up, and with Sony doing very well this gen there's all the reason in the world to keep with what works.

    Also yeah the Wccftech thing is false as hell. They've seemingly been making up shit off the top of their heads recently. No "faster Vega 64" showed up at Computex, exactly when you'd expect such to launch, among other things they seem to have gotten patently wrong. And having an officially announced new graphics architecture launching in the same time frame as the PS5 makes the "Navi being built specifically for the PS5" laughable.
     
  15. Malo

    Malo YakTribe.games
    Legend Veteran Subscriber

    Joined:
    Feb 9, 2002
    Messages:
    6,175
    Likes Received:
    2,179
    Location:
    Pennsylvania
    In this instance I don't think it indicates any such desire from Nvidia to become more involved in consoles. Their involvement with the switch is basically to provide a shit load of Tegra X-1 cores they had doing nothing in their warehouse.
     
  16. Blanco

    Joined:
    Oct 24, 2017
    Messages:
    2
    Likes Received:
    1
    You may want to actually read the quote and its context before saying Sony announced ps5 in 3 years :)
     
    chris1515 likes this.
  17. Kaotik

    Kaotik Drunk Member
    Legend

    Joined:
    Apr 16, 2003
    Messages:
    7,479
    Likes Received:
    1,182
    Location:
    Finland
    Switch was nothing but convenient way to get rid of outdated Tegra SoCs for NVIDIA
     
    Bondrewd and BRiT like this.
  18. Kaotik

    Kaotik Drunk Member
    Legend

    Joined:
    Apr 16, 2003
    Messages:
    7,479
    Likes Received:
    1,182
    Location:
    Finland
    Even if it does have some truth in it, I seriously doubt it's the whole truth, especially the future part.
    AMD has previously taken input from both MS and Sony for GCN development and those changes have appeared in same generation, it's highly unlikely they'd suddenly start developing for example Navi only for Sony's needs (MS is going to launch next Xbox around the same time frame anyway, so they'll surely have something to say about what they want in next gen designs. Vega clearly wasn't developed only for Apple either, as parts of Vega design were first introduced in PS4 Pro (RPM) long before full blown Vegas.
    This is also the first time anyone is claiming that Navi isn't GCN, I think?
    Oh, and the claimed schedule has to be wrong, I doubt AMD would still show roadmap where there's 2 new architectures before end of 2020 if Navi was going to come in 2020 or even late 2019
     
  19. Picao84

    Veteran Regular

    Joined:
    Feb 15, 2010
    Messages:
    1,158
    Likes Received:
    422
    Well, Forbes is saying something very similar:

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/jasone...nys-playstation-5-vega-suffered/#12f01b4624fd
     
  20. DavidGraham

    Veteran

    Joined:
    Dec 22, 2009
    Messages:
    2,017
    Likes Received:
    918
    ِAMD's David Wang shuts the door on the MCM approach for Navi: it's not happening. Not now, and not for a long time.

    https://www.pcgamesn.com/amd-navi-monolithic-gpu-design?tw=PCGN1
     

Share This Page

  • About Us

    Beyond3D has been around for over a decade and prides itself on being the best place on the web for in-depth, technically-driven discussion and analysis of 3D graphics hardware. If you love pixels and transistors, you've come to the right place!

    Beyond3D is proudly published by GPU Tools Ltd.
Loading...