AMD: Navi Speculation, Rumours and Discussion [2019]

Discussion in 'Architecture and Products' started by Kaotik, Jan 2, 2019.

  1. CarstenS

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    Maybe you could share the actual numbers including source?
     
  2. Entropy

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    When it comes to contract pricing, does anyone truly know outside the two parties signing the contract? It's not like it would show up in any quarterly report, so it would have to be due to someone leaking it. Thus - no official source.
    For something as volatile as spot market memory pricing, and specific as HBM modules, estimating contract pricing with any precision is going to be difficult.
     
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  3. Kaotik

    Kaotik Drunk Member
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    Not to mention they're suggesting that HBM2 price is exactly the same it was 1½ years++ ago. They didn't have any sources back then either.
     
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  4. CarstenS

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    I would imagine, something as HBM gen2 would be manufactured to contract and not traded at spot markets. Spot market would imply a vast surplus of unused products from failed/miscalculated contracts.

    Now, I don't have exact numbers as well, I just remember Gamersnexus writing about it in 2017 (18 months ago), quoting David Kanter "The HBM2 memory is probably around $150, and the interposer and packaging should be $25." and others on estimated HBM2 pricing.

    AFAIK, HBM2 is being used mostly in high margin products like data center accelerators, FPGAs and network switches. All of which seem to be in a steadily high demand. Also, you have only two manufacturers for HBM2: Samsung and Hynix, right?

    There are also various and continuing reports that HBM2 is in very high demand. SK Hynix going on record middle of 2017 stating "I can tell you that the customers are willing to pay at least double or, let's say, 2.5 times of the HBM." and Samsung apparently saying it ISC2018 (mid-2018, multiple sources here's one), "even if the company doubles the HBM2 production, they won’t be able to fulfill the market’s demands." They continue to say, that "This is another factor that has resulted in HBM2 being too expensive and a product with a high-profit margin for Samsung and SK Hynix."

    Now I wonder, if competition on the manufacturing side demand is that high and for high-margin products nevertheless, why would prices drop drastically? I don't know if $320 is the right number, but I would not discount it as being something conjured up from fairyland -- especially if I had only my gut feeling that it might be on the high side of estimates.
     
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  5. Bondrewd

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    Three.
    Micron is now also there.
     
  6. CarstenS

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    Strange, I was under the impression Micron expressed mid-2018 it's commitment to working on also having HBM products, but none of it has surfaced for now. At least as I knew.
     
  7. DavidGraham

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    It goes pretty much to the top, Lisa Su her self commented on one of his videos. I don't think I have ever seen a situation like that in the hardware industry.

     
  8. fehu

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    Confirmed: Lisa Su is AdoredTV's leaker.
    She really like him, and want to see him succeed.
     
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  9. del42sa

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    sure , she does .-)
     
  10. Alexko

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    I wonder how long it will take before someones starts the rumour that they're having a secret affair.
     
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  11. Kaotik

    Kaotik Drunk Member
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    You mean they're not and I hired the hitman for nothing? :shock:
     
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  12. AlBran

    AlBran Just Monika
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    It's about Epyc's in gaming platforms?
     
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  13. mrcorbo

    mrcorbo Foo Fighter
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    #LeakerGate

    (Though it is actually just a front for misAMDry)
     
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