A Hypothetical Question to Xbox 360 owners about the Next Generation

[cbarcus]

Disclaimer: There is a lot of controversy over the timing of the next console launch with some industry analysts believing that it won't happen until 2013. Microsoft has not confirmed that they are going to integrate Natal capability into a new console next year, but such a possibility has been raised because the accessory has to include a CPU and memory to process the sensor data and generate the necessary controller information for the console.

Here's a hypothetical question for Xbox 360 owners:

Next year (Spring/Summer 2010) your console finally dies, and it is no longer under warranty. At this point it is clear that Microsoft is offering both a new console and the Natal accessory that Fall. The accessory will sell for $100, but the new console is twice as powerful as the old one, has Natal integrated within it, and will sell for $300. Halo 4: Reach will have some optimization for the new console, and will also be released at about the same time. Sony has announced their new console, and claim it will be over 10x as powerful as the current PS3, but it will not launch for another year (Fall 2011) and they haven't announced a price. Popular opinion is that the PS4 will be expensive, at least $400, maybe even $500.

Now you can only pick one option, but assuming that both consoles have compelling content, do you:

a) buy a $150 360 Arcade replacement,

b) wait for the Xbox Natal later that year, or

c) wait until Fall 2011 to buy the PS4?

 

[Acert93]

There is always the option not to buy! And if the above happened it would clearly mean the mind controlling slugs that infest fanboys slithered out and infected the monkeys that run these companies!

 

[sunscar]

Either a replacement for my old Xbox, or wait on PS4 - If I wanted another system stuck somewhere in limbo, I'd buy another Dreamcast...

Suppose there's some refinement to realize for a thread like this - *Nobody* in their right mind thinks *any* current player (SONY, MS, Nintendo) will ever launch a system @ 400$ again, let alone higher (on account that it'd *probably* be suicide). That doesn't mean SONY/MS have to follow Nintendo's lead, either, and rebox a warmed-over, old product (which may also be suicide).

There is always the option not to buy! And if the above happened it would clearly mean the mind controlling slugs that infest fanboys slithered out and infected the monkeys that run these companies!

 

[cbarcus]

There is always the option not to buy! And if the above happened it would clearly mean the mind controlling slugs that infest fanboys slithered out and infected the monkeys that run these companies!

Yeah, maybe I should have added option d) give up gaming and take up gardening.

 

[cbarcus]

Either a replacement for my old Xbox, or wait on PS4 - If I wanted another system stuck somewhere in limbo, I'd buy another Dreamcast...

Suppose there's some refinement to realize for a thread like this - *Nobody* in their right mind thinks *any* current player (SONY, MS, Nintendo) will ever launch a system @ 400$ again, let alone higher (on account that it'd be suicide). That doesn't mean SONY/MS have to follow Nintendo's lead, either, and rebox a warmed-over old product (which may also be suicide).

How many consoles did Sony sell at $500 and more? Millions? And in the situation I've created here, there's just as much, if not considerably more, ! for the $.

 

[Sonic]

Considering I already have a 360 then I have little reason to replace it at $149.

I'd be interested in Xbox Natal blah whatever it will be if it offers games that I wish to play.

If this mythical PS4 supposed to launch in 2011 is indeed 10x more powerful than PS3 and costs $400 at launch I will not buy it. $300 then yes.

 

[(((interference)))]

Xbox Natal

Will pick up the PS4 later when it's cheaper.

MS really have brought some interesting things to the table in the console market, despite their upstart status and will probably continue to do so with the next generation.

MS being a software company, is also by nature a more dynamic, younger company with fresher thinking compared to a historied, large, very traditional electronics manufacturer like Sony. And this corporate makeup does tend to translate to their products.

 

[E2K]

Mainstream PC's are so powerful now that even a sub-400 Euro PC can run most of the '360 "exclusives"' at double the framerate, AA etc. And you can use your controller.
It's a shame though that lost odyssey is not on PC.
Anyway, my point is; for most games you can use a normal, cheap, mid-end pc.
A 80 euro GPU will give you even twice the resolution.

So for me, no new xbox I guess Unless Natal really takes off.

 

[PARANOiA]

I think the thing MS have done really well this generation is tying your gaming to your online identity. The idea of having your friends list, gamerscore and the constant barrage of knowing what's just around the corner in the dashboard really re-enforces the notion of wanting to come back for more.

From a financial point of view, I am really hesitant to sell my 360 purely because of my XBLA games. If my 360 died I'd just get another Arcade and be done with it - I have so much in terms of spend that I couldn't recoup on the second hand market, so it would be a waste not to get another machine.

What this also means in terms of next-gen is I really hope XBLA games are backwards compatible. If not, there's nothing to make me want to leave the 360 behind. If there is, I can buy a new machine with a small selection of new games, while knowing I have my catalogue of 50+ XBLA games to tide me over. So yeah, I think gamers "changing teams" is going to be a lot harder moving forward, purely from a DRM perspective.

 

[Laa-Yosh]

You're assuming way too many things... new, more powerful Xbox in 2010? PS4 in 2011?? Why would these things happen?

 

[cbarcus]

You're assuming way too many things... new, more powerful Xbox in 2010? PS4 in 2011?? Why would these things happen?

Yes, there are plenty of assumptions here. Although it is widely believed that the customer base of the 360 is well over 30 million units, I'm estimating that it is more likely in the mid-twenties because of a significant portion of owners buying Arcade units as replacements. There were two hints at this- the released Xbox Live activity figures earlier this year, and Game Informer's recent poll of their customers. Microsoft realizing that they cannot compete long-term performance-wise with Sony, instead decide to re-brand their console with their Natal technology. Choosing the performance route inevitably means dealing with hardware and software scaling problems that would force Microsoft to adopt a similar architecture as Sony. So, instead of trying to go head-on with a more adept and prepared adversary, they choose to woo the casual market, confident that with their superior marketing skills, they can better engage their own customers than Nintendo has theirs. They remain developer-friendly with the PC-space, and they provide an easy migration path for their current customers. The Natal technology requires significant computation (custom CPU and memory) for translating the sensor data into useful controller input, making for an expensive accessory. By incorporating Natal into an upgraded Xbox, the sensory data can be processed by the Xenon CPU, and overall system cost can be kept low, while encouraging its adoption. In order to maintain an affordable price-point and reliability, heat problems are avoided by only modest upgrades in functionality, a 6-core Xenon, an upgraded GPU with more EDRAM, and 1 GB of GDDR5 memory with about 70 GB/s bandwidth. Overall, a Natal re-branding can avoid the poor-reliability associations of the previous design, and the upgraded functionality at the same, or nearly the same, price as the PS3 can mean for a very attractive offering. So, this new machine competes against both Nintendo and Sony's PS3.

Sony cannot just sit back and watch Microsoft once again steal the show, dealing an early blow to their revived PS3 sales. One possibility is an effective pre-emptive strike by unveiling specs for a new machine built on a 28/32nm process. A rough estimate of what a machine could entail with the current architecture would look something like:

64-core Cell2 CPU w/~2 billion transistors
RSX2 w/64 EDRAM w/over 2 billion transistors
4 GB XDR providing over 300 GB/s bandwidth

Such a machine would be expensive, but there might be 10-20 million customers who would buy such a machine in 2011 at $500.

Of course, Sony has another option. Cut the above specs in half, build the machine at 45nm, and sell it in 2010 for $500. A process shrink should allow a price cut of 20% within 1 year. Either way they can compete at both ends of the market. With significantly more capability than the competition, they can command a price premium and set the standard for the next generation of interactive entertainment.

They don't call it a "console war" for nothing you know!

Of course, there are many official announcements that have yet to be made, and one can interpret this to mean that everyone is holding their cards very close to their chest, or that something entirely different is going to happen. I am not completely convinced of this scenario, but I see it as a possibility (unlike many others), so I'm exploring it. For whatever that may be worth....

 

[Laa-Yosh]

Well, it seems your train of thought is driven entirely by your support of Sony...

 

[corduroygt]

Half-gen is a bad idea, just ask Sega with their 32x and Dreamcast.
Also, no new consoles from MS or Sony until at least 2012, they're trying to make some money back you know...

 

[Pugger]

Lets be honest Natal is going to launch in two forms, a stand alone for excisting 360 owners and intergrated into new models of the 360 which may or may not be seen as Microsofts version of the slim. There will be no upgrade in terms of the 360 specification itself bar the camera. Its not rocket science.

 

[Arwin]

cbarcus, this is a very awkward way to start a discussion. Can't you see this yourself? And can't you do better? Why not rewriting the OP with a few basic assumptions, like that neither Sony nor Microsoft nor their respective costumers (and on this board very many have both!) are complete idiots.

@Pugger: also not rocket science is that integrating a webcam into your console is a bad, bad idea.

 

[cbarcus]

Well, it seems your train of thought is driven entirely by your support of Sony...

It is entirely possible that my thinking is swayed by underlying prejudice, but do not be so hasty in your judgement because there are more things going on than who has the most powerful kit. In the scenario I've laid out, I believe Microsoft puts itself in a very strong position, particularly if you find their performance "good enough," their development tools easy to use, and their exclusive content and mature services attractive (which many do). Regardless, interactive entertainment is a large and complex market, and there is plenty of room for many players. How many gamers own more than one current generation system? 5 million? More? I have no idea, but I'd like to know.

Do you find it "impossible" that Microsoft will integrate Natal into their console next year? 1up's speculation on this point intrigued me, especially after Ballmer went on about a new console with Natal at the Executive Club in June (later he apologized for his poor choice of words). Someone asked Microsoft directly about integration, and the response was that, "they were considering the possibility," or some such. This was about the same time that some very believable specifications were leaked concerning the next Xbox. None of this is remotely conclusive, but certainly it creates an interesting possibility, and should not be dismissed out of hand because it flies in the face of what most people would like to believe.

Are my estimated specs for the PS4 exaggerated? I am just considering what is possible based solely on a) current architecture, b) available die area, c) available manufacturing processes, d) available technology such as XDR2. XDR2 has yet to be licensed, so who knows? Newer processes may have more leakage, so transistor count would have to be lower. Who knows what clock speeds are reasonable. There are a lot of variables.

 

[liolio]

I would buy the new system+natal. I would not consider the extra power as it won't happen.

 

[cbarcus]

cbarcus, this is a very awkward way to start a discussion. Can't you see this yourself? And can't you do better? Why not rewriting the OP with a few basic assumptions, like that neither Sony nor Microsoft nor their respective costumers (and on this board very many have both!) are complete idiots.

@Pugger: also not rocket science is that integrating a webcam into your console is a bad, bad idea.

Well, if you think the thread should be locked, that's absolutely fine. I agree upon re-reading it that it is a bit awkward. But I was wondering about those early-adopters, people who bought their machine back in 2007, and whether on the whole their experience justified remaining a loyal customer. Whether Microsoft's vision for interactive entertainment remains compelling under this particular scenario. Remember all those users that stuck with Apple those years before the platform picked up Intel in 2006? I'm not trying to insult anyone's intelligence. I'm just trying to gauge the importance of particular characteristics of the platform. How off-putting is lower performance or a $500 price point?

 

[AzBat]

I agree with PARANOiA that considering that this generation is more tied to the DRM and that those who only buy one system will end up sticking with that company's next system. So I think in your hypothetical current 360 buyers who have a defective system that is past the 3 year warranty, they'll either send it in for out-of-warranty repair or buy another one. Most likely they won't even know much about the Natal accessory or your hypothetical Super 360+Natal system. In my case, I would only purchase what I could afford at the time. If that meant repairing it then so be it. But there's no way I would even consider waiting another year for some fabled product from another vendor. I've already made an investment in GamerScore, Friends, XBLA, Movies/TV Shows & Indie Games. There's no reason to just throw that all away.

BTW, the PS4 thing at the end was really cheesy & unnecessary. Try not to do that again.

Tommy McClain

 

[DrJay24]

b & c