When are the 65nm PS3's and XB360's shipping?

[Dave Baumann]

Read my post again. I didn't say they would "postpone releasing 65nm", I said completely the opposite. The point being that 65nm internals (CPU+GPU, or even just one of them) doesn't necessarily translate to "new SKU's". You can keep the current SKU's and silently transition to 65nm within them, thus saving money.

 

[Geo]

Do you think that having razor thin to negative margins on the hardware, that MS would adopt of strategy of only releasing 65 nm once production lines have been fully transitioned especially when a price drop is so closely tied to cost?

Are you suggesting that Microsoft can't afford to save money? :smile:

Or are you after the mechanics and timing of transitioning the production from 90nm to 65nm vs the timing of the price cut?

 

[dobwal]

Are you suggesting that Microsoft can't afford to save money? :smile:

Or are you after the mechanics and timing of transitioning the production from 90nm to 65nm vs the timing of the price cut?

More like, MS ramping down 90nm and at the same time ramping up 65nm while releasing only 90nm into the wild and placing 65 nm into inventory. Thus once a full transition to 65nm, allowing the market to eat up the 90 nm stock and releasing 65 nm with a price cut across all skus.

Getting this close to the end of year, isn't MS allocating some stock for holiday release. If MS is getting shipments of 65nm why not stock those instead of releasing those 65nm chip into the wild.

 

[Geo]

They're going to ramp down 90nm as fast as they possibly can, regardless. How this crosses over the needs of filling the channel is a separate issue. Really, even pricing is a separate issue, or at least only tangentially connected. History is full of examples of pricing being only partially related to cost. Like any manufacturer, I'm sure they'd love to charge the higher price for as much of the lower cost 65nm parts as they can get away with given what the competition is up to and their hopes to increase sales volumes as their price declines.

But at any rate, slowing down the 65nm transition for any reason is not going to happen. There's all good and no bad from that transition for them.

 

[Dave Baumann]

And ramping down as fast as possible doesn't necessarily just mean "stopping" 90nm as soon as 65nm chips are done. 90nm is a stable supply with a known quantity, 65nm may have some unforseen issues that crop up and may have capacity constraints in the interim as well.

 

[dobwal]

They're going to ramp down 90nm as fast as they possibly can, regardless. How this crosses over the needs of filling the channel is a separate issue. Really, even pricing is a separate issue, or at least only tangentially connected. History is full of examples of pricing being only partially related to cost. Like any manufacturer, I'm sure they'd love to charge the higher price for as much of the lower cost 65nm parts as they can get away with given what the competition is up to and their hopes to increase sales volumes as their price declines.

But at any rate, slowing down the 65nm transition for any reason is not going to happen. There's all good and no bad from that transition for them.

They already been forced to slow down production of 90nm as they are in no way producing at 2006 levels. They literally stuffed the market last year to get to 10 million shipped.

They have to clear the channels anyway to make way for a price cut, so they might as well hold 65nm release back as they just trickling out shipments of 360s at this time.

 

[AlphaWolf]

They have to clear the channels anyway to make way for a price cut, so they might as well hold 65nm release back as they just trickling out shipments of 360s at this time.

What good does that do MS financially? They would rather sell 65nm parts than 90nm because they are cheaper to make.

 

[Geo]

They have to clear the channels anyway to make way for a price cut,

No, they don't. It's optional. Since there is no reason to think there will be a new sku for this, it'd be entirely transparent to the retail channel. Maybe they will, maybe they won't.

so they might as well hold 65nm release back as they just trickling out shipments of 360s at this time.

If they are "just trickling" (and I personally am not saying one way or another; I'm just accepting your paradigm for the sake of the discussion), then that's an even stronger argument for going to 65nm shipments immediately, as it means they can replace their entire current 90nm production that much quicker with 65nm only. If the channel is already flooded as you argue, then there is even less need to have huge volumes of new 65nm production to replace existing production. At least less need than if the channel wasn't already flooded. But at any rate, there is no scenario you can come up with that doesn't work out as "get 65nm out the door as quickly as possible and ramp it to 100% of needed ongoing production as fast as possible".

There's just no downside to 65nm that causes you to work out some grand and baroque strategy of deployment. Once it hits full ramp (i.e. post verification) then it's full speed ahead, and give me all she's got, Scotty!

 

[standing ovation]

I think Microsoft's transition to fewer and smaller components will be more abrupt than Sony's simply because they are addressing two issues: reliability and cost. Both of which have contributed to billion dollar losses and a billion dollar write-off for an extended warrantee.

As far trying to sell discontinued merchandise goes (ala Sony), it would be more cost-effective for Microsoft to just throw it all away.

 

[Geo]

As far trying to sell discontinued merchandise goes (ala Sony), it would be more cost-effective for Microsoft to just throw it all away.

Hah. Well, actually, they probably are thinking about their ability to do warrantee work in the future, which requires spare parts. . . but again, this would be yet another argument for going forward as fast as possible with 65nm into the channel and withholding (if anything is goign to be withheld) some portion of 90nm production for future warrantee work.

 

[pelly]

When Microsoft and Sony are ready with 65u parts, I highly doubt you'll see any news or official statements indicating when those are shipping. Rather, each vendor will simply begin populating new consoles with the new parts. You won't see any markings on the boxes indicating anything is different. Aside from hardcore enthusiasts looking at build dates, 99% of consumers won't know whether the console they're looking at on a store shelf has either 90u or 65u hardware inside.

A perfect example of this is actually Sony's PS2. Go google how many motherboard revisions the PS2 experienced (all unannounced) before it was made into the new slimmer form factor and you'll see that a console vendor can make as many internal changes they want. The only time they'll alert consumers to these changes is if the functionality of the unit is changed. So long as the console does everything its supposed to correctly, they can change every component inside the box and not have to say a thing.

The key to "spotting" newer systems featuring the 65u parts will be very similar to seeking certain steppings or OC-friendly batches of CPU's. The serial number (or some other marking) will likely give a clue towards build date. Once enthusiasts get a feel for what codes are using the 65u parts, you'll find out what numbers to be looking for...

 

[Shifty Geezer]

A perfect example of this is actually Sony's PS2.

Very true. New tech just gets rolled out.

Once enthusiasts get a feel for what codes are using the 65u parts, you'll find out what numbers to be looking for...

Although chances are bigger numbers = later revisions

 

[John Reynolds]

The key to "spotting" newer systems featuring the 65u parts will be very similar to seeking certain steppings or OC-friendly batches of CPU's. The serial number (or some other marking) will likely give a clue towards build date. Once enthusiasts get a feel for what codes are using the 65u parts, you'll find out what numbers to be looking for...

A co-worker and I had this exact conversation just this morning since I've been holding out on buying a 360 for the 65u transition.

 

[Carl B]

When Microsoft and Sony are ready with 65u parts, I highly doubt you'll see any news or official statements indicating when those are shipping. Rather, each vendor will simply begin populating new consoles with the new parts. You won't see any markings on the boxes indicating anything is different. Aside from hardcore enthusiasts looking at build dates, 99% of consumers won't know whether the console they're looking at on a store shelf has either 90u or 65u hardware inside.

A perfect example of this is actually Sony's PS2. Go google how many motherboard revisions the PS2 experienced (all unannounced) before it was made into the new slimmer form factor and you'll see that a console vendor can make as many internal changes they want. The only time they'll alert consumers to these changes is if the functionality of the unit is changed. So long as the console does everything its supposed to correctly, they can change every component inside the box and not have to say a thing.

The key to "spotting" newer systems featuring the 65u parts will be very similar to seeking certain steppings or OC-friendly batches of CPU's. The serial number (or some other marking) will likely give a clue towards build date. Once enthusiasts get a feel for what codes are using the 65u parts, you'll find out what numbers to be looking for...

The Falcon 360 is different though, as we all know it will include HDMI as standard. That's not something that you don't find marked obviously on the box. And as such, I expect a formal announcement of its arrival as well - if not then at least ample press coverage. The remaining 360 stocks are in for channel clearing; there's little doubt in my mind that the arrival of the 65nm revisions will not go unnoticed.

 

[TheChefO]

The Falcon 360 is different though, as we all know it will include HDMI as standard.

Good point.

Perhaps they will (have already?) slide them into the Elite boxes first, then follow this transition up with a proper roll out next year.

Back to back pricecuts in a short period of time seems pretty foolish though.

Then again, they may be hoping the added "value" of hdmi will provide another spike in sales before the end of the year and then follow up with a price drop next spring where they finally pass these cost savings onto consumers.

...idiots. (MS)

 

[J_Saint]

The Falcon 360 is different though, as we all know it will include HDMI as standard.

Does this mean HDMI ports on all SKU's? I thought it was just a loose rumor or possibly just something off of a wishlist somewhere. I realize nothing is official until MS announces it but how "unofficially confirmed" is this?

 

[Carl B]

Does this mean HDMI ports on all SKU's? I thought it was just a loose rumor or possibly just something off of a wishlist somewhere. I realize nothing is official until MS announces it but how "unofficially confirmed" is this?

Hmmm... well, maybe saying "we all know" was a bit strong. I've personally heard it from a couple of places; frankly it makes so much sense to me that I haven't personally really bothered with any follow-up to verify the veracity, but... well anyway it's the assumption I'm personally working under.

 

[Zassk]

This may be a better place to mention the 65-nm Falcon shipment info that I posted in another thread.


http://forum.beyond3d.com/showpost.php?p=1045856&postcount=44

 

[infinity4]

wouldn't they be able to increase sales if MS publicise it assuming it is already produced

 

[Zassk]

wouldn't they be able to increase sales if MS publicise it assuming it is already produced

But they want to clear out the 90-nm stock ASAP... the last thing they want is for everyone to wait for 65-nm to hit shelves.