PS3 predictionS now that it launched in all territories

[LogisticX]

I agree with you on the whole crosseye, but I think if one looks to Apple for inspiration you can see that the public can be swayed to choosing a premium product if it becomes the "cool thing" to do. We've seen the success of iPod and the iMac, and these are largely due to the clever marketing and strong word of mouth.

Sony's got the hardware and surely the games even just from 1st/2nd party, now they need to implant the idea that the PS3 is "cool thing" to buy.

Right now, the Wii has that title I think.

 

[quest55720]

I agree with you on the whole crosseye, but I think if one looks to Apple for inspiration you can see that the public can be swayed to choosing a premium product if it becomes the "cool thing" to do. We've seen the success of iPod and the iMac, and these are largely due to the clever marketing and strong word of mouth.

Sony's got the hardware and surely the games even just from 1st/2nd party, now they need to implant the idea that the PS3 is "cool thing" to buy.

Right now, the Wii has that title I think.

It might work with the Ipod because of its form factor and Itunes but it has not carried over to the MAC. The high price of MP3 players have been established since day 1. Sony can try and make the PS3 cools as they want but the public in NA will not buy a 599 dollar console. Sony messed up by trying to double the price in 1 generation. A 399 PS3 with out blue ray destroys the 360 IMO. I am just hope the buyers of NA keep not buying the PS3 to send the message to sony that 599 is outragous for a console.

 

[Crossbar]

Here is Digitimes take on the matter:

PS3 unable to surpass Xbox 360 until mid-2008, may peak in 2009, say Taiwan game firms

Viewing that the sales performance of the PlayStation 3 (PS3) has been far short of Sony's original expectations since its launch in November 2006, the PS3 will be unable to surpass the Xbox 360 in terms of global market status until mid-2008 when its games library reaches a sufficient size, and then may reach its peak in 2009, according to Taiwan games developers/operators.

The PS3 is less competitive than the Xbox 360 in terms of number of titles and with the Wii in the creativity of its games, according to the sources. There are only 11 games specifically developed for the PS3, and Sony's 3D web community platform PlayStation Home is not yet available, the sources indicated.

 

[pipo]

How in the hell did PS3 sold more than Wii on day 1????

That's easy.

Both Nintendo and Microsoft struggled to meet demand with their consoles, leading to stock shortages - but Sony previously stated that the UK would get around 220,000 of the 1 million PS3 units allocated to Europe for launch.

http://www.gamesindustry.biz/content_page.php?aid=23781

 

[swanlee]

No one has still explained how they think the PS3 is going to outsell the 360 by 500,000 consoles each month to catch up with it in 18 months or 250,000 each month to catch up with it in 3 years.

If you think the PS3 will ever catch up to the 360 this gen these are the types of numbers it will have to do each and every month. It currently is having issues selling 250,000 a month by itself, to catch up it has to sell 250,000 a month MORE than the 360 and even then it won't catch up till mid 2010. How do you think that will be possible?

Halo3, Mass Effect, Gear of War2 and a 360 price drop eventually will probably not allow that to happen.

 

[-tkf-]

Halo3, Mass Effect, Gear of War2 and a 360 price drop eventually will probably not allow that to happen.

Ehmm lets remove the price drop, ok? i mean, if the 360 isn´t good value at the current price then what? And i think it´s no secret that the PS3 will see a price drop as well, aparently Sony don´t think it´s needed yet but the European Sku is a good indication that they are prepared, dropping the EE and reducing the size on one of the Chips is a good move. If Sony can i´m sure they will wait until the Cell 65nm is out and in place.

And from your list Halo 3 is the only one that matters to the "crowd" GOW2 and Mass Effect is dust particles compared to Halo 3.

 

[Diamond.G]

PS3 as a game machine....

Does anyone here think Sony would be better off selling the PS3 primarily as a Bluray/Mediacenter item than a videogame machine. Or even a Linux computer. I would think if they could make commercials for the system that show it doing something else (kinda like a dell commercial or maybe they could rip the apple comercials ) sales would be better. I mean if you told someone that the PS3 is meant to replace their computer and that is is faster, cheaper, and more feature filled than any equivelent dell box that they wouldn't bite?

I think that is part of why Sony is doing so poorly. They have this great system that can do all these other things, they are promoting all these other things (at least on the internet) yet all you see on tv is that it has motorstorm or the baby that cries (seriously ). I can sell my wife on the movie playing, interent browsing (as long as her myspace works) and photo browsing features for 600 dollars. But I cannot sell her on it's videogame features. I would venture to say there are probably a few people that fall into the same boat as I do.

What do you guys think?

 

[inefficient]

Does anyone here think Sony would be better off selling the PS3 primarily as a Bluray/Mediacenter item than a videogame machine. Or even a Linux computer. I would think if they could make commercials for the system that show it doing something else (kinda like a dell commercial or maybe they could rip the apple comercials ) sales would be better. I mean if you told someone that the PS3 is meant to replace their computer and that is is faster, cheaper, and more feature filled than any equivelent dell box that they wouldn't bite?

I think that is part of why Sony is doing so poorly. They have this great system that can do all these other things, they are promoting all these other things (at least on the internet) yet all you see on tv is that it has motorstorm or the baby that cries (seriously ). I can sell my wife on the movie playing, interent browsing (as long as her myspace works) and photo browsing features for 600 dollars. But I cannot sell her on it's videogame features. I would venture to say there are probably a few people that fall into the same boat as I do.

What do you guys think?

It's just not a great personal computer for mainstream usage. Linux is not a great end user experience compared to Windows and OSX. The last thing mainstream consumers want to do is have to learn how to use a new operating system - much less a very noob unfriendly one.

For just web browsing and photo viewing's there are lots of options available for under $600. What the PS3 is excellent at is video games and playing BR movies. The other stuff is just icing on the cake for the few of us hardcore users.

Your wife is just a wise woman. You should go to her right now and thank her for marrying you.

 

[one]

Does anyone here think Sony would be better off selling the PS3 primarily as a Bluray/Mediacenter item than a videogame machine. Or even a Linux computer. I would think if they could make commercials for the system that show it doing something else (kinda like a dell commercial or maybe they could rip the apple comercials ) sales would be better. I mean if you told someone that the PS3 is meant to replace their computer and that is is faster, cheaper, and more feature filled than any equivelent dell box that they wouldn't bite?

Actually in Japan SCE currently air these funny commercials that show the photo album function in PS3.
http://www.jp.playstation.com/movie/cm/asx/cm_ps3_kuruma.asx
http://www.jp.playstation.com/movie/cm/asx/cm_ps3_musume.asx

 

[Diamond.G]

It's just not a great personal computer for mainstream usage. Linux is not a great end user experience compared to Windows and OSX. The last thing mainstream consumers want to do is have to learn how to use a new operating system - much less a very noob unfriendly one.

For just web browsing and photo viewing's there are lots of options available for under $600. What the PS3 is excellent at is video games and playing BR movies. The other stuff is just icing on the cake for the few of us hardcore users.

Your wife is just a wise woman. You should go to her right now and thank her for marrying you.

Oh I do thank her.

And you do bring up an interesting point with respect to learning other than windows/osx. Does Beryl work on the PS3? That may soften the curve. My inlaws are a perfect example. They had their DVD player die on them recently. When they got a new one they ended up getting an upconverting player, why? Cause it is cheaper then HD-DVD or BR. I mentioned the PS3 but they don't play videogames. They see the PS3 as a videogame system (and we can thank Sony for that). And my inlaws aren't broke (GS-15+personally wealth). Hell my father inlaw works with technology on a daily basis and he couldn't jusitfy the price (my dad got one to annoy me).

Actually in Japan SCE currently air these funny commercials that show the photo album function in PS3.
http://www.jp.playstation.com/movie/cm/asx/cm_ps3_kuruma.asx
http://www.jp.playstation.com/movie/cm/asx/cm_ps3_musume.asx

Nice, see even though the commercials are kinda bland it lets the ppl know that the PS3 is more than just games.

 

[TheChefO]

Actually in Japan SCE currently air these funny commercials that show the photo album function in PS3.
http://www.jp.playstation.com/movie/cm/asx/cm_ps3_kuruma.asx
http://www.jp.playstation.com/movie/cm/asx/cm_ps3_musume.asx

I wonder why Sony would waste their time with such ads. The xb360 offers the same, as well as the Wii. But both of these consoles offer the same feature for significantly less money.

Their efforts to sell the console using such ads helps explain their current plight.

IMO.

 

[betan]

Does anyone here think Sony would be better off selling the PS3 primarily as a Bluray/Mediacenter item than a videogame machine. Or even a Linux computer. I would think if they could make commercials for the system that show it doing something else (kinda like a dell commercial or maybe they could rip the apple comercials ) sales would be better. I mean if you told someone that the PS3 is meant to replace their computer and that is is faster, cheaper, and more feature filled than any equivelent dell box that they wouldn't bite?

I think that is part of why Sony is doing so poorly. They have this great system that can do all these other things, they are promoting all these other things (at least on the internet) yet all you see on tv is that it has motorstorm or the baby that cries (seriously ). I can sell my wife on the movie playing, interent browsing (as long as her myspace works) and photo browsing features for 600 dollars. But I cannot sell her on it's videogame features. I would venture to say there are probably a few people that fall into the same boat as I do.

What do you guys think?

Given that immediate use of gaining ground quickly is future third party support, I think Sony should mostly advertise gaming aspects of the system initially. Plus I doubt HD maniacs need much advertisement.
Linux is a different story though. Sony doesn't really support linux, it supports installation of additional "boot loader"s. Even if they do, 256 mega system memory is short of shiny linux experience hence they cannot really advertise it anyway.
They can however support fast and decent user experience with linux if they think it is important. Still it would be against the elite image they are after.

 

[Teasy]

I thought i had a thread like this... . Anyway, it seems you guys forget that if something is great people will drop things to get it. Just look at the wii. I don't think XBOX360 will retain their sells once all cards are on the table. Halo 3 only means things to people that had an xbox before and wii needs more 1st, 2nd, and 3rd party games to keep the steam. By then who knows? IMO i think people will start to see the greener grass and ditch the old tech.

You mean just like people have done with the DS?... or the PS2 for that matter. A big userbase means lots of top games which in turn means more sales, shinny graphics are far less relivant.

 

[swanlee]

Guess no one here wants to try and tackle the idea that Sony has to outsell the 360, 250,000-500,000 consoles each and every month for 18-36 months to break even with the 360.

To people saying it's just to early to tell what's going to happen this gen I beg to differ.

 

[TheChefO]

Guess no one here wants to try and tackle the idea that Sony has to outsell the 360, 250,000-500,000 consoles each and every month for 18-36 months to break even with the 360.

To people saying it's just to early to tell what's going to happen this gen I beg to differ.

An unfortunate truth that must be avoided at all costs ...

(or until sales pick up and this ideal of "ps3 dominance" shows some potential signs of life)

In the meantime reality does indeed paint a very stark contrast to this ideal of ps3 dominance or even parity...

FTR I think Japan will help balance the low sales in NA and EU will as well. Having said that, NA is by far the largest market so the point still stands ...

 

[Arwin]

Guess no one here wants to try and tackle the idea that Sony has to outsell the 360, 250,000-500,000 consoles each and every month for 18-36 months to break even with the 360.

To people saying it's just to early to tell what's going to happen this gen I beg to differ.

As said above, regional sales will be important. If the PS3 picks up in Japan, there's a lot to gain for Sony there. Maybe Wii will win initially, but after most people bought that, and the PS3 becomes affordable and gets the required games or BluRay ...

Same for Europe. We'll have to wait and see what happens once the PS3 reaches a mass-market price (i.e. half of what it is now). Will all the PS2 owners move on?

Right now, I notice that most people over here still know hardly anything about the PS3. That will change in the next year though.

But the Wii definitely is an interesting factor.

Also interesting to me at least is to see that a lot of the people who bought 360 also get a PS3. The early adopters just buy everything. But what are the people coming after that going to do?

I'm guessing we'll see a big spike as the Xbox owners move on from Halo 2 to Halo 3, although some of them will already have done so because of the enhanced backwards compatibility support on 360. The big question is whether it will draw in a new crowd? But even the existing crowd in the U.S. is large.

Really, I have no idea at this point on how things will end up. But I must say, the PS3 is looking strong, and it will be interesting to see how it fares a year out.

 

[PatrickL]

One potential problem for Sony is that MS should be able to reach a mass market sale price way before them. As I said earlier I think the christmas sales next winter should give us a good indication.

 

[Evildeus]

Considering last VG charts, and the trend since mid february:
- Weekly sales trend of XBOX 360 is decreasing and around +1.3% per week ATM
- Weekly sales trend of PS3 s decreasing and around +4% per week ATM (i don't take into account the launch in Europe)
- Weekly sales trend of WII is decreasing since march but it's quite stable since february in fact and around +4.8% per week ATM

 

[swanlee]

"Considering last VG charts"

PS3 isn't going to ever catch up be their sales decreasing weekly. Even if it pulls a miracle and outsells the 360 250,000 each month for 36 months it pretty much breaks even in mid 2010 at the very tail end of this generation.

Woo hoo what a win for Sony.

 

[Evildeus]

Yes, that's the trend, but WII is another thing