Impact of the European Theatre of Operations on the DVD War

[bobthebub]

Given the imminent European launch of PS3 I have been thinking about the effect this could have globally as to when a winner might be declared in the format war.

I think it's perfectly possible that Blu-ray will completely wipe the floor with HD-DVD in a matter of months, I am sure we could have a debate on the chances of that happening but if we assume that it does what would the effect be?

In a Europe that doesn't 'do' HD-DVD would Universal stay out the market or would they be forced to make their movies available on Blu-ray, and if so would that mean having to do the same in the US, any such move would almost certainly end the war there too.

 

[willardjuice]

Considering Blu-ray is currently getting crushed in Europe, I think all the PS3 launch will do is even out the war (not completely "wipe the floor" as you put it).

 

[avaya]

Considering that actual player sales in Europe are no where near US numbers, we are talking mere thousands , then 1mn PS3 in the European window...lol

 

[bobthebub]

As avaya mentioned currently neither format has any significant market penetration, there was a a report mentioning something like 8,000 discs (what would that represent? a couple of thousand players max across the whole of europe) had been sold around the end of 06, I realise that the 360's HD-DVD drive will have had some effect since then but essentially neither format is off the ground and it is at least plausable that a million PS3's, even if they don't sell out at launch will make HD-DVD irrelevant in europe.

As I tried to state in the OP I didn't want to start an argument about who will win, more around what would happen in the states if the euro market was completely owned by Blu-ray (or HD-DVD if it adds a bit of balance to the discussion) as some big players would need to ditch the market or switch sides.

 

[Davros]

I think the studios would love europe to be bluray + the u.s to be hd-dvd
they hate it when europeans can buy their films from the u.s at u.s prices and buy them a long time before they are released in europe. It also gives them something to blame for the higher prices in europe (blueray costs more) rather than the true reason they are more expensive in europe because we can get away with it

 

[bobthebub]

Good point, especially since Blu-ray has retained region coding. Realistically though I can't see HD-DVD doing better than stalemate at best with Blu-ray in the US, studios releasing films on Blu-ray in Europe that could not be obtained in the US would cause considerable consumer resentment.

 

[avaya]

The studios would prefer one format to prevail. HD-DVD region encoding will be implemented sooner or later, volumes are far too low for them to care about lost revenue. If PS3 doesn't signal an immediate >75% marketshare for Blu-Ray in Europe in the immediate aftermath of its release then Blu-Ray could be in a spot of bother.

 

[Randell]

If PS3 doesn't signal an immediate >75% marketshare for Blu-Ray in Europe in the immediate aftermath of its release then Blu-Ray could be in a spot of bother.

As that hasn't happened in USA why would it happen in Europe.

The other factor is global distribution rights - some films which are US Blu-Ray region coded are HD-DVD region free over here depending on who has the European rights.

 

[Blazkowicz]

region coding will be for real this time? (enforced by DRM).

isn't region coding illegal by the way? (I read it is regarding some WTO standards, and I guess it's breaking some free trade treaties anyway)

 

[avaya]

As that hasn't happened in USA why would it happen in Europe.

The other factor is global distribution rights - some films which are US Blu-Ray region coded are HD-DVD region free over here depending on who has the European rights.

The scenario is completely different to the US. You have 1,000,000 units landing on the continent in the better part of a week, at max 2(warning, it’s Sony, this might be messed up), compared to spotty 50-100K shipments spaced over a 5-6 week period. Furthermore there is a pre-order campaign that has been going on long enough (since mid-summer 2006) for actual sell-through to be highly significant on the launch day and weekend itself.

There should be a direct impact immediately. Taking into account the anaemic HD media sales so far (UK being the most receptive, but sales are still tiny in comparison to the US), even assuming a tiny proportion the PS3 user base actually takes it upon themselves to invest in one Blu-Ray disc it should catapult past HD-DVD almost instantaneously. There is really no reason for it to fail to achieve this. It’s what the US launch was intended to be. The European launch is the closest they have to some sort of “rolling thunderâ€￾ effect, the plan that was intended all along for the US but failed to materialise due to appalling execution.

I expect the European market to mirror much closer to the Japanese than the North Americans.

 

[Bad_Boy]

Considering Blu-ray is currently getting crushed in Europe, I think all the PS3 launch will do is even out the war (not completely "wipe the floor" as you put it).

Wasn't Blu-ray getting crushed by hd-dvd in NA before the PS3 launch?