2010 Marketshare Prediction Poll >January 2007ed

[Shifty Geezer]

Fixed

You have a propensity to fix things that aren't broken. PS3 has irrefutably the most exotic technologies in a count of architectural components. Unless you want to argue that a DVD drive and DDR3 RAM is more exotic than a BluRay drive and XDR on a FlexIO bus.

As for Ranger's comments that this board is PS3 biased as shown by the number of threads on PS3, I can't say I agree with that. When XB360 launched, it definitely headlined and PS3 was fairly quiet. At the moment most of the PS3 threads appearing are how doomed it is!

 

[TheChefO]

You have a propensity to fix things that aren't broken. PS3 has irrefutably the most exotic technologies in a count of architectural components. Unless you want to argue that a DVD drive and DDR3 RAM is more exotic than a BluRay drive and XDR on a FlexIO bus.

As for Ranger's comments that this board is PS3 biased as shown by the number of threads on PS3, I can't say I agree with that. When XB360 launched, it definitely headlined and PS3 was fairly quiet. At the moment most of the PS3 threads appearing are how doomed it is!

Sure Bluray is larger than dvd. Exotic? No.

XDR ~ gddr3

flexio sure it's different but more "exotic" than 360's unified arch? hmm not sure on that.

Point is cell is really where the magic is in ps3. That is what makes it exotic. In 360 its xenos.

MEMEXPORT
Embedded DRAM
Tesselation Unit
Unified Shaders
etc.

Does that make 360 more exotic than ps3? I say no. nor do I think ps3 is more exotic than 360.

They both have their unexplored edge but to say that one is clearly "more exotic" than the other is a bit rediculous IMO. Anyway this conversation about which console is most exotic is a bit pointless and off topic in relation to this thread.


back on topic::smile:
Shifty - How do you see this market shaping up for 2010?

 

[Johnny Awesome]

Originally (back in summer 2005) I predicted: Sony 50%, MS 35%, Nintendo 15%, but now I lean towards Sony 45%, MS 40%, Nintendo 25%, but over a slightly longer time-frame (2011-2012).

This is based around some assumptions:

1. Sony's costs when all of the kinks are worked out (ie. mid-2007) for the 60GB model of PS3 are only $100 higher than those of the Premium X360 and probably only $50 more over the long-term. So I think they can close the price gap by $100. They should be able to do well with PS3 at the $299/$399 pricepoint when MS is at the $199/$299 mark after they get some key titles out like MGS4, FFXIII, etc... Blu-Ray will help more as more people get HDTVs. I still think they can sell a million units per month for 6 years.

2. Nintendo Wii will slow down when the lack of sofware and HD graphics turn into purchase factors for consumers and the price gap narrows over time as the X360 and PS3 drop price quicker than Nintendo does. Nintendo will do well, but they aren't going to dominate IMO. There are just too many genre holes in their games lineup: No serious shooters, driving games, deep RPGs, or sandbox games.

3. Microsoft will continue to get slaughtered in Japan, but they'll still sell 2 million units on the strength of few key titles like Blue Dragon, Lost Odysee and maybe some new 3rd party support from Konami and/or Square. They'll lose to Sony in Europe, but win in North America. They can sell 50 million units for sure, but whether or not they can get to 60 or 70 million is still an open question. The X360 will be profitable for MS IMO.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Sure Bluray is larger than dvd. Exotic? No.

Exotic = rare, uncommon, unusual.

Blue - Laser optical discs = exotic
XDR = exotic
FlexIO = exotic memory interface

Point is cell is really where the magic is in ps3. That is what makes it exotic. In 360 its xenos.

MEMEXPORT, Embedded DRAM, Tesselation Unit, Unified Shaders, etc.

As a component, Xenos can probably be classed as equally exotic a GPU as Cell is a CPU. As an entire system, PS3 is a hands-down winner IMO. It has far more rare and unusual components and systems than XB360, which is why it costs so much. If it was built out of common, ordinary components, it'd be half the price!

Shifty - How do you see this market shaping up for 2010?

As I've always said, I have no idea. I certainly won't take 3 months of sales and try to predict 36 months of future sales from that. Sometimes it doesn't take a great deal to swing the markets. You never know when that killer application will surprise everyone, or when a company will painfully fumble an aspect of their system. It could conceivably be any one of the poll's options.

Perhaps you can tell, I'm not much of a betting man

 

[TheChefO]

Originally (back in summer 2005) I predicted: Sony 50%, MS 35%, Nintendo 15%, but now I lean towards Sony 45%, MS 40%, Nintendo 25%, but over a slightly longer time-frame (2011-2012).

This is based around some assumptions:

1. Sony's costs when all of the kinks are worked out (ie. mid-2007) for the 60GB model of PS3 are only $100 higher than those of the Premium X360 and probably only $50 more over the long-term. So I think they can close the price gap by $100. They should be able to do well with PS3 at the $299/$399 pricepoint when MS is at the $199/$299 mark after they get some key titles out like MGS4, FFXIII, etc... Blu-Ray will help more as more people get HDTVs. I still think they can sell a million units per month for 6 years.

2. Nintendo Wii will slow down when the lack of sofware and HD graphics turn into purchase factors for consumers and the price gap narrows over time as the X360 and PS3 drop price quicker than Nintendo does. Nintendo will do well, but they aren't going to dominate IMO. There are just too many genre holes in their games lineup: No serious shooters, driving games, deep RPGs, or sandbox games.

3. Microsoft will continue to get slaughtered in Japan, but they'll still sell 2 million units on the strength of few key titles like Blue Dragon, Lost Odysee and maybe some new 3rd party support from Konami and/or Square. They'll lose to Sony in Europe, but win in North America. They can sell 50 million units for sure, but whether or not they can get to 60 or 70 million is still an open question. The X360 will be profitable for MS IMO.

Agreed - the longer the timeframe the more potential momentum for ps3 and less potential momentum for wii but this poll is for 2010. ...and you have a few extra percentage points thrown into your new prediction - fyi:smile:

 

[TheChefO]

Exotic = rare, uncommon, unusual.

Blue - Laser optical discs = exotic
XDR = exotic
FlexIO = exotic memory interface

As a component, Xenos can probably be classed as equally exotic a GPU as Cell is a CPU. As an entire system, PS3 is a hands-down winner IMO. It has far more rare and unusual components and systems than XB360, which is why it costs so much. If it was built out of common, ordinary components, it'd be half the price!

As I've always said, I have no idea. I certainly won't take 3 months of sales and try to predict 36 months of future sales from that. Sometimes it doesn't take a great deal to swing the markets. You never know when that killer application will surprise everyone, or when a company will painfully fumble an aspect of their system. It could conceivably be any one of the poll's options.

Perhaps you can tell, I'm not much of a betting man

Exotic in the context of 3d or 3d/games programming. In that regard (beyond3d) flexio doesn't amount to much neither does xdr or bluray. Sure these things cost money along with the standard hdd and standard bluetooth and standard trey-less optical drive and built-in powersupply and gyro/sixaxis controller but these things have little bearing for indepth discussion at b3d.

Cell yes - Xenos yes. misc other stuff - not so much

Regarding your marketshare prediction - It's not like we would lynch you if you were wrong! Obviously you have some ideas for how you think things can/will turn out so share with the group.:smile:

 

[Pigman BABY!!!]

My thoughts:
Sony 50%, Microsoft 35% and Nintendo 15%.
Once the PS3 comes down in price sales will skyrocket and Xbox 360 will get some sales increase after the Halo 3 release.
The Wii will lose most of it's flash in Europe and the US some 4-8 months from now when the gimmick has worn of and the battle of the graphics resumes with Sony and Microsoft going at it Nintendo and it's Wii will be crushed between them.
I'm saying 15% and that's me being generous.

 

[liolio]

My thoughts:
Sony 50%, Microsoft 35% and Nintendo 15%.
Once the PS3 comes down in price sales will skyrocket and Xbox 360 will get some sales increase after the Halo 3 release.
The Wii will lose most of it's flash in Europe and the US some 4-8 months from now when the gimmick has worn of and the battle of the graphics resumes with Sony and Microsoft going at it Nintendo and it's Wii will be crushed between them.
I'm saying 15% and that's me being generous.

It depend a lot on software editors and nintendo will be able to push.
I think Sony could finish with 50/35 ratio instal in regard with ms but not in 2010.
this chrismmas the 360 will be almost cheap with a lot of cheap games and strong exclusive.
In 2008 the 360 will be really cheap, sony will run behind MS for a long time.
Ok it all depend on ps3 (and its price) acceptance in EU but but 360's momemtum seems to be growing and with the right price MS can really hurt sony in EU this chrismass.

 

[Johnny Awesome]

Agreed - the longer the timeframe the more potential momentum for ps3 and less potential momentum for wii but this poll is for 2010. ...and you have a few extra percentage points thrown into your new prediction - fyi:smile:

Well... I decided to round up.

For 2010 (in the spirit of the original poll): Sony 35, MS 35, Nintendo 30 is probably more realistic.

 

[Pigman BABY!!!]

It depend a lot on software editors and nintendo will be able to push.

For the last 20 years software editors have always been very enthusiastic about anything called or made Nintendo.
Gamecube had loads of games as did N64 it however didn't help Nintendo fighting off Sony and Microsoft.
Now with the dated hardware onboard Nintendo will get even less marketshare.

Wiimote is just another Eyetoy a ****ing T-shirt at best.
Besides the home console market isn't the handheld market and unlike the DS bad graphics with a gimmick won't fool people from the dated graphics for long.

Wii is just fling mark my words.

 

[TheChefO]

Wii is just fling mark my words.

Perhaps - however the interesting phenomenon with wii is that it is selling outside the traditional demographic. For typical gamers you have a point but for these non-gamers that are buying this thing I don't think the graphics matter all that much to them. In fact I think the biggest thing that wii has going for it is parents that aren't (haven't been) gamers can enjoy games with their kids because of the simple interface.

Anecdotal information I know but I can't tell you how many guys where I work and around my family/friends circle have bought into wii because of its ease of use and ability to enjoy it with their whole family instead of something that just sits in the kids room.

How long this hype will last is up to Nintendo and I think it's hype/longevity will be more based on games that take advantage of the system than hd visuals.

 

[The_legend_of_drtre]

"Sony 30% Microsoft 30% Nintendo 40%"

The correct answer.

 

[nonamer]

I don't know how other people's think have changed in the last year or so, but I have not. I'm not buying into any of the hype, FUD, or other assorted complaints. It still looks like, IMO, an easy and very dominating PS3 win. In particular, I agree with some here that the Wii is just a diversion to the real console war. It offers no advantage over a PS2 and any excitement is merely due to novelty factor, aimed particularly to the uninformed who simply do not understanding how primitive the Wii is technologically. Like Abe Lincoln once said, "You can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you can not fool all of the people all of the time." It is inevitable that most will catch on, not to mention that the wii-mote can be easily copied. I doubt the Wii will even last till 2010. In Japan, that basically leaves the PS3 as the only viable console altogether.

The Xbox 360 has its own problems. For starters, there will be big problems once games get huge in data size. I see no reason why it won't happen. It happens in every generation of game consoles, and every generation in nearly every computer-related industry. Claiming otherwise has something like a 0-100 record in the grand scheme of things. I can't believe this will be the very first time the naysayers will be right. Stacked on top of the poorly conceived Core version and an undersized HDD in the premium, I expect it to face numerous and highly painful hardware upgrades over the next few years. It's also only successful in English-speaking countries, so any future success it sees is likely to be very limited.

What I do agree with is that there has been something of a firestorm of negative hype surrounding the PS3. This has indeed dampened enthusiasm and initial sales, as well as feed into the marketing of the Wii and Xbox 360. I don't think any of it matters in the long run though. 5-6 years is a very long time, and most of the FUD will completely dissipate long before then. For instance, going by dvdempire.com sales numbers, Blu-ray is annihilating HD-DVD 2 to 1. Seeing how this only 2 months after launch, the HD format war is probably already over with a decisive victory going towards Blu-ray. So at least in this case, facts are destroying the FUD. I suspect that in 6-12 month most of the negativity will be gone, and probably shifted either to the Wii or Xbox 360 and their real problems.

 

[superNoid]

I suspect that by this time next year we'll have a better way to gauge these figures.

The Wii is still new, the novelty is new and the hype is still there. Wait for the hype and novelty to wear off then lets talk about consistant sales figures mkay ? The 360 is over a year out, and is still continuing to sell like hot cakes. It argueably has the best game lineup through 2007 and this coupled with the fact a price drop is VERY likely before summer 2007 .. I think you're looking at Microsoft putting the pedal to the metal saleswise. Sony ? meh... Poor sales numbers, high price, low demand and lack of quality AAA games is hurting them. I think by the time they get their act together, it'll have been too late.

I think if we REALLY want to gauge sales numbers this year ? I think the guaranteed 360 price drop and 2nd hardware revision is certainly going to give Microsoft that NOS boost it needs to check the rear view mirror and see Sony choking in the dust cloud while Nintendo trails closely.

2010 ? Microsoft by 10%.

 

[superNoid]

The Xbox 360 has its own problems. For starters, there will be big problems once games get huge in data size.

I'd rather pop in 'disk 2' then pay $200 more. This is a moot arguement and you seem to have fallen hook, line, and sinker for Sonys marketing ploy(s). Shame.

 

[TheChefO]

I don't know how other people's think have changed in the last year or so, but I have not. I'm not buying into any of the hype, FUD, or other assorted complaints. It still looks like, IMO, an easy and very dominating PS3 win. In particular, I agree with some here that the Wii is just a diversion to the real console war. It offers no advantage over a PS2 and any excitement is merely due to novelty factor, aimed particularly to the uninformed who simply do not understanding how primitive the Wii is technologically. Like Abe Lincoln once said, "You can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you can not fool all of the people all of the time." It is inevitable that most will catch on, not to mention that the wii-mote can be easily copied. I doubt the Wii will even last till 2010. In Japan, that basically leaves the PS3 as the only viable console altogether.

The Xbox 360 has its own problems. For starters, there will be big problems once games get huge in data size. I see no reason why it won't happen. It happens in every generation of game consoles, and every generation in nearly every computer-related industry. Claiming otherwise has something like a 0-100 record in the grand scheme of things. I can't believe this will be the very first time the naysayers will be right. Stacked on top of the poorly conceived Core version and an undersized HDD in the premium, I expect it to face numerous and highly painful hardware upgrades over the next few years. It's also only successful in English-speaking countries, so any future success it sees is likely to be very limited.

What I do agree with is that there has been something of a firestorm of negative hype surrounding the PS3. This has indeed dampened enthusiasm and initial sales, as well as feed into the marketing of the Wii and Xbox 360. I don't think any of it matters in the long run though. 5-6 years is a very long time, and most of the FUD will completely dissipate long before then. For instance, going by dvdempire.com sales numbers, Blu-ray is annihilating HD-DVD 2 to 1. Seeing how this only 2 months after launch, the HD format war is probably already over with a decisive victory going towards Blu-ray. So at least in this case, facts are destroying the FUD. I suspect that in 6-12 month most of the negativity will be gone, and probably shifted either to the Wii or Xbox 360 and their real problems.

A lot of "FUD" typed in that post (literally and figuratively).

This post assumes that everyone that buys a wii is fooled and they don't yet know that they need HD graphics. As long as wii is selling it has no "problems" - ditto xb360. PS3 on the other hand ...

When 360 games don't fit on multiple dvds let me know k?

Also bluray isn't just competing with hd-dvd ... how do those numbers you looked up compare to dvd?

 

[infinity4]

The Xbox 360 has its own problems. For starters, there will be big problems once games get huge in data size. I see no reason why it won't happen.

blue dragon is already on 3 dvds. whats wrong with using more than a disc for a game???

 

[assen]

In Japan, that basically leaves the PS3 as the only viable console altogether.

You must be living on some other planet; in my planet's Japan, the PS3's hardware sales are slowing to a crawl, and the software sales are nonexistent.

The Xbox 360 has its own problems. For starters, there will be big problems once games get huge in data size. I see no reason why it won't happen. It happens in every generation of game consoles, and every generation in nearly every computer-related industry.

The game data size is not a technical limit, it's a financial one. I believe (and a quick and unscientific Google search has convinced me enough to mouth off) movies' production average budgets have stopped climbing - from some point on you simply can't get your returns, no matter how much more special effects and superstars you include. The same will happen with games, and it's not clear that tapering off will happen after the DVD9 limit is exceeded, not before it. (Game producers are certainly not happy to have to feed ever increasing spans of disc space, and statements such as the recent interview by Kojima-san are rare.)

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Exotic in the context of 3d or 3d/games programming.

Ranger's comment was exotic in technologies. I dunno why you'd limit that to programming context. It's not like every comment on this forum has to do with 3D or programming, despite it being B3D. Just lok at the number of game control threads, HD movie threads, HD TV threads, and even econimc debates about the console companies...

Obviously you have some ideas for how you think things can/will turn out.

No, I don't. I'm quite happy to have no opinions on some subjects, with not even a slight inkling or suspicion of an outcome. I have absolute no opinion or expectations on the console install base by 2010 at this point in time, just as I have no opinion on whether Gucci is better than Armani, nor an opinion on whether bone grafting is a good idea for repairing damage from Periodontitis. I can honestly and happily answer 'I don't know' to your question!

 

[TheChefO]

Ranger's comment was exotic in technologies. I dunno why you'd limit that to programming context. It's not like every comment on this forum has to do with 3D or programming, despite it being B3D. Just lok at the number of game control threads, HD movie threads, HD TV threads, and even econimc debates about the console companies...

No, I don't. I'm quite happy to have no opinions on some subjects, with not even a slight inkling or suspicion of an outcome. I have absolute no opinion or expectations on the console install base by 2010 at this point in time, just as I have no opinion on whether Gucci is better than Armani, nor an opinion on whether bone grafting is a good idea for repairing damage from Periodontitis. I can honestly and happily answer 'I don't know' to your question!

Fair enough. :smile: